Week 2 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 3. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Clemson (1-1, ranked 12th) just dismissed Troy 27-16 but failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Georgia Tech (2-0) just dominated Gardner Webb 59-12, cruising as 37.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Clemson listed as a 6-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Clemson.
However, despite receiving a clear majority of tickets we’ve seen the Tigers fall from -6 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Georgia Tech plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Yellow Jackets despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Georgia Tech is receiving 34% of spread bets and 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, Georgia Tech is taking in 53% of spread bets and 58% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home dog.
The Yellow Jackets have buy-low value as an unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent.
Unranked teams against ranked opponents are are 17-8 ATS (68%) with a 29% ROI this season and 128-103 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Georgia Tech has additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Georgia (2-0, ranked 6th) just brushed aside Austin Peay 28-6 but failed to cover as 46.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Tennessee (2-0 ranked 15th) just crushed East Tennessee State 72-17, easily covering as 39.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 7.5-point road favorite.
Sharps seem to think this opener was way too high and have gotten down hard on Tennessee plus the points, dropping Georgia from -7.5 to -3.5. This line has steadily and consistently moved toward the Volunteers without any discernable buyback on the Bulldogs.
The Volunteers have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 43% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
At Circa, Tennessee is taking in 31% of spread bets and a whopping 73% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in the desert grabbing the points with the home dog.
The Volunteers have betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51 to 49.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 39% of bets and 61% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 75% of bets and a whopping 97% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
Vanderbilt (2-0) just upset Virginia Tech 44-20, easily winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, South Carolina (2-0, ranked 11th) just took down South Carolina State 38-10 but failed to cover as 42.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with South Carolina listed as a 7-point home favorite.
The public sees an easy win and cover with the Gamecocks at home, with 71% of spread bets at DraftKings laying the points with South Carolina.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen South Carolina fall from -7 to -5.5.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with South Carolina to begin with? Because respected sharp action has sided with Vanderbilt, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Commodores plus the points.
The Commodores are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as they are receiving less than one-third of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game (7:45 p.m. ET).
At DraftKings, Vanderbilt is receiving 29% of spread bets and 45% of spread dollars. At Circa, Vanderbilt is taking in 57% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split from the wiseguys out in Vegas.
Vanderbilt has buy-low value as an unranked team against a ranked opponent, as well as betting system value as a conference dog.
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