U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Sept. 7 that he is prepared to advance to a “second stage” of sanctions against Russia, though confusion remains over what this actually means.
Given Trump’s record of avoiding decisive but forceful measures that would push the Kremlin toward ending its war against Ukraine, some observers have voiced skepticism about the actual substance of the latest warning.
Asked by a reporter during a White House briefing on Sept. 7 whether he was ready to move to the “second stage” of sanctions against Moscow, Trump responded, “Yes, I am,” without providing additional details.
“I truly believe that he just says these things without caring whatsoever whether there is some actual concept behind it,” Benjamin Hilgenstock, a senior economist at the KSE Institute focused on the sanctions regime against Russia, told the Kyiv Independent.
What's next after India tariffs?
The comments came as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington is prepared to expand secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil — though no new step has been announced.
American studies expert Alexandra Filippenko says the presumed “first stage” refers to tariffs on goods from India.
Last month, the U.S. slapped 50% tariffs on India, one of the leading buyers of Russian crude, over its purchases of Russian energy and arms. In spite of the measure, New Delhi has said it would continue buying Russian oil.
The potential second phase could involve stepping up tariffs on India or slapping “proper secondary sanctions on the buyers of Russian oil,” according to Benjamin Hilgenstock, a senior economist at the KSE Institute focused on the sanctions regime against Russia.
Filippenko says the new measures could also entail tariffs on buyers, traders, insurers, or refineries involved in transporting Russian oil and punishing ports that service the “shadow fleet.”
It could also involve tightening measures against Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft and expanding export restrictions, she adds.
Trump has repeatedly pledged to step up sanctions against Moscow, issuing numerous deadlines while rarely following through with the threats. This leaves the timing of potential next steps uncertain at best.
“According to Trump, (the first) stage will be ‘completed’ when Europe signs a joint package of measures that effectively closes loopholes” like the shadow fleet or re-exports, Filippenko said.
However, “it’s unclear whether Trump believes that for the ‘transition to second phase,’ which he is ready for, the EU must completely give up Russian natural resources,” the expert added.
The White House recently lambasted the EU over purchases of Russian energy supplies.
Most European countries have stopped purchasing Russian oil after the outbreak of the full-scale war, and the European Commission has proposed phasing out all Russian energy purchases, including gas, by the end of 2027.
Slovakia and Hungary, the only countries still buying Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, have opposed measures curtailing energy dependence on Moscow.
“In any case, Trump can use this as a card in the game: ‘It’s not my fault; it’s all the EU’s fault that we can’t move to phase 2!” Filippenko said.
Calls for tougher sanctions against Russia have come not only from Kyiv, but also from Capitol Hill.
The Sanctioning Russia Act, co-sponsored by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, would allow the U.S. to impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries buying Russian energy — an adoption of which would be a logical part of the second sanctions phase, Filippenko said.
Discussions on the bill have been repeatedly postponed, as Trump has feared the step might derail his peace outreach to Russia.
“Trump’s sanctions rhetoric often clashes with reality, and many of his past threats against Russia and its partners have not been implemented,” Oleksandr Talavera, professor of financial economics at the University of Birmingham, told the Kyiv Independent.
“This raises doubts about the credibility of ‘phase two,’ which may prove more of a political signal than a concrete, enforceable policy.”
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