Short-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Up, Job Finding Expectations Reach Series Low

The main findings from the August 2025 survey are:

Inflation

• Median inflation expectations ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% at the one-year-ahead horizon in August. They were unchanged at the three-year- (3.0%) and five-year-ahead (2.9%) horizons. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year- and three-year-ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon.
• Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—increased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and declined at the five-year-ahead horizon.
• Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the third consecutive month at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
• Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations declined by 0.9 percentage point for the cost of college education to 7.8%, by 1.0 percentage point for rent to 6.0%, and by 0.4 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.8%. Median year-ahead price change expectations remained unchanged for gas (3.9%) and food (5.5%) for the third consecutive month.

Labor Market

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.5% in August, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. The series has been moving within the range between 2.5% and 3.0% since May 2021.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.7 percentage points to 39.1%. The series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 38.1%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 percentage point to 14.5%. The reading is above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.0%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 18.9%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 19.0%.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 percentage points to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013. The decline was broad-based across age, education, and income groups, but it was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education.

Household Finance

• The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9% in August, equaling its 12-month trailing average.
• Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%. The series has been moving in a range between 4.8% and 5.2% since February 2025.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated somewhat, with a smaller share of respondents expecting it will be easier to obtain credit in the year ahead.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.8 percentage point to 13.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.5%.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.5 percentage point to 3.4%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt declined by 2.5 percentage points to 6.6%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 24.3%.
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago worsened with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share of households reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations became more dispersed. A larger share of households are expecting a worse financial situation, and an equally larger share of households are expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.6 percentage point to 38.9%.

 
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy. 

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.