- Dallas must shore up in short yardage: The Cowboys allowed conversions on 77.0% of plays with 1 yard or fewer to go, the second-worst rate in the NFL last season. That sets up a tough matchup against a Philadelphia offense that led the league with 57 such conversions, including a league-high 34 on quarterback sneaks.
- Bills ground game dominated in the red zone: After just one red-zone rushing score across 2022 and 2023, James Cook and Josh Allen combined for 23 in 2024. That success continued in the playoffs, when Buffalo ran for three red-zone touchdowns against a Ravens defense that hadn’t allowed more than one in any prior game.
The 2025 NFL season is finally here, and with it comes a fresh wave of advanced data and analysis.
PFF’s media research team has been hard at work this week, preparing for kickoff — pulling data-driven insights and talking points for our broadcast partners around the league. Now, we’re sharing those same nuggets with you. So, whether you’re looking to win your fantasy matchup, hit on your bets or just get smarter about the game, these are the key storylines to know for every Week 1 contest.
Want the same insights trusted by all 32 NFL teams and our broadcast partners? Subscribe to PFF+ and get everything you need to win your fantasy season and gain an edge at the sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Thursday, 8:20 pm ET
While Dak Prescott had his share of struggles last season, his deep passing remained a strength. Prescott earned a 93.7 deep passing grade, sixth-best among quarterbacks. His 38.0% completion rate on those throws ranked just 19th, but drops played a factor, as his 50.0% adjusted completion rate tied for fourth-best. He gets added help this year in George Pickens, who ranked second among all pass-catchers in receptions (15) and yards (515) on deep targets in 2024.
However, Dallas faces a difficult Week 1 test against a Philadelphia secondary that allowed just a 27.0% completion rate on deep passes last season, the second-best mark in the NFL. The Eagles also tied for third in interceptions on deep throws, with seven.
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys defense will need to tighten up in short-yardage situations. They allowed conversions on 77.0% of plays with 1 yard or fewer to go — the second-worst rate in the league. That’s bad news against a Philadelphia offense that led the NFL with 57 short-yardage conversions, including a league-high 34 on quarterback sneaks.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Friday, 8 pm ET
When Kansas City has the ball, the Chargers defense will be on high alert for RPOs and screens — two staples of the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs ranked second in RPO usage last season at 17.0%, and Patrick Mahomes’ 397 RPO pass attempts since 2018 lead all quarterbacks.
The screen game remains just as integral to Kansas City’s offensive identity. The Chiefs produced 2,383 yards after the catch in 2024, third-most in the league, while their 18,048 total yards after the catch since 2018 leads the NFL. The Chargers rank just behind them over that span, with 15,575.
On the other side of the ball, Justin Herbert versus Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is one of the most compelling Week 1 matchups. Herbert has logged 343 dropbacks against Spagnuolo-coordinated defenses — the most of any quarterback since 2019 — and has posted a 101.5 passer rating in those matchups, third-highest among qualified passers. He’s also excelled under pressure, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt against Spagnuolo blitzes, ranking second among quarterbacks with at least 25 such dropbacks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 pm ET
The Buccaneers will feel the absence of tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee) along the offensive line. Wirfs earned a league-best 94.1 PFF pass-blocking grade in 2024, the highest mark among all offensive linemen last season. Since entering the league, he’s allowed pressure on just 1.4% of pass-blocking snaps, the lowest rate among tackles, while his 0.7% knockdown rate ranks fourth among those qualifying players (min. 1,000 snaps).
Meanwhile, Atlanta has aggressively rebuilt its pass rush. The Falcons used first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., and added veteran edge rusher Leonard Floyd in free agency. The overhaul comes after Atlanta ranked 30th in pressure rate last season at just 28.0%.
That pass rush will be key against Baker Mayfield, who led all quarterbacks in touchdown passes (36) and yards (3,872 ) when kept clean in 2024. For Atlanta’s defense to succeed, disrupting Mayfield consistently will be essential.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 pm ET
Two of the NFL’s most disruptive pass rushers — Myles Garrett and Trey Hendrickson — will be on display in Week 1. Both are cornerstones of their defenses and are responsible for a significant share of their teams’ pass-rush production.
Hendrickson led all defenders in 2024 by accounting for 31.1% of his team’s total pressures. Garrett wasn’t far behind, generating 24.9% of Cleveland’s pressures, the fifth-highest rate.
With that level of edge dominance, improved pass protection will be crucial. The Bengals allowed pressure on 33.1% of dropbacks last season (27th), while the Browns surrendered pressure at a 31.6% rate, tied for 23rd. For both teams, better protection up front could determine the outcome of this matchup.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 pm ET
The Colts made a clear statement with their first-round selection of tight end Tyler Warren: the position needed a significant upgrade. In 2024, Indianapolis ranked 31st in receiving yards from tight ends (467) and finished last in both yards after the catch (221) and yards after contact (62).
Warren brings a vastly different skill set. At Penn State last season, he totaled 690 yards after the catch — second-most among FBS tight ends — and 311 yards after contact, also second-best at the position.
Miami made its own splash at tight end by signing Darren Waller. Though he sat out the 2024 season, Waller’s 3,947 receiving yards since 2019 rank fifth among tight ends, and his 90.2 receiving grade is the fourth-highest in that span.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 pm ET
It was a tale of two seasons for quarterback Bryce Young in 2024. Over his first seven games, he struggled under pressure with a 62.7 passer rating, 25th among 32 qualified quarterbacks. He turned a corner in his final seven starts, however, producing an 87.6 passer rating under pressure, the eighth-best mark in the league.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen demonstrated his red-zone acumen during his lone year as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator. After the Buccaneers ranked 31st in red-zone touchdown rate in 2023 (46%), Coen helped elevate them to fourth in 2024 (66%).
Coen inherits an offense that already ranked eighth in red-zone efficiency last season (62%). If he brings similar improvements, the Jaguars could become one of the league’s most dangerous units as early as this season.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 pm ET
The Patriots’ new-look offensive line should give rookie quarterback Drake Maye more time to operate this season. In 2024, New England’s 54.2 pass-blocking grade ranked 31st, ahead of only the Saints, and the team allowed pressure on 35.9% of dropbacks, the third-highest in the league. Fourth overall pick and new left tackle Will Campbell brings immediate help after surrendering just two sacks on 524 pass-blocking snaps in his final season at LSU.
On the other side, the Raiders struggled to generate consistent pressure last year. Their 29.5% pressure rate ranked 26th in the NFL. Star edge rusher Maxx Crosby is looking to bounce back from a 2024 season cut short by injury. Crosby earned a 70.1 PFF pass-rush grade when he was on the field, his lowest since 2020.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 pm ET
Trey McBride posted one of the best receiving seasons by a tight end in recent memory. His 63 combined receiving first downs and touchdowns in 2024 ranked fifth among tight ends in a single season since 2020. His 89.8 PFF receiving grade last year ranks eighth at the position over that span.
Chris Olave remains one of the few bright spots on the Saints’ roster and must stay healthy for the offense to succeed. Since 2022, Olave’s 89.7 receiving grade ranks 12th among wide receivers. He has consistently beaten single coverage, averaging 3.83 yards per route run against it, the 10th-best mark over the past three seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 pm ET
Justin Fields’ rushing ability is a significant weapon, particularly when scrambling, but the Steelers are built to contain mobile quarterbacks. Despite starting just six games in 2024, Fields leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards on scrambles (1,558) since entering the NFL, and his 78 rushing conversions rank third. However, Pittsburgh surrendered just 55 rushing yards on scrambles last season, the fewest allowed by any team since 2009.
On the outside, the matchup between D.K. Metcalf and Sauce Gardner promises to be a physical battle. Metcalf led the NFL with 41 contested targets last season but hauled in only 15 of them, ranking 66th out of 69 qualified pass catchers in contested catch rate (37%).
Since entering the league in 2022, Gardner has allowed a catch on just 25% of contested targets, the best mark among 97 qualified defenders. In two head-to-head matchups over the past three seasons, Metcalf has secured just one catch on five contested targets against Gardner.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 1 pm ET
A healthy Andrew Thomas could be a game-changer for the Giants this season. In his absence for the final 11 games of 2024, New York’s left tackle spot became a clear weak link, allowing a league-worst 11.7% pressure rate on dropbacks from Week 7 on. When healthy, Thomas has proven to be one of the NFL’s most dependable pass blockers, surrendering pressure on just 4.3% of snaps between 2021 and 2024, the eighth-lowest rate among tackles.
Meanwhile, Washington kicks off its second season under Dan Quinn with a ferocious pass-rush identity. The Commanders blitzed on 39% of dropbacks last year — the fifth-highest clip in the NFL — and paired that aggression with power, as their 21.5% knockdown rate (sacks plus hits) on blitzes also ranked fifth league-wide.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET
Last season, 35 players saw at least 100 targets, with Calvin Ridley’s 113 ranking 23rd. The problem wasn’t volume, it was accuracy. Just 86.5% of Ridley’s targets were deemed catchable, the fourth-lowest rate among triple-digit target earners. Tennessee addressed the quarterback position by drafting Cam Ward, one of college football’s most accurate deep passers. Among 141 FBS quarterbacks with 50-plus attempts of 10 or more air yards in 2024, Ward ranked 12th in accuracy rate.
On the other side, Bo Nix closed 2024 as one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks. From Weeks 10–18, Nix threw 21 touchdown passes, tied for third-most in the league. Play action powered that production, as 11 of those scores came via play action, the most of any quarterback over that stretch.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET
With Klint Kubiak taking over as offensive coordinator, Seahawks fans can expect a heavier dose of outside zone runs from under center. In 2024, the Saints ranked eighth in under-center rush attempts (298) under Kubiak, with 58% coming on outside zone concepts. That system aligns well with Kenneth Walker III’s strengths. Since 2022, Walker owns an 88.9 PFF rushing grade—third-best among running backs—and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
On the other sideline, Robert Saleh returns to the Bay Area to lead San Francisco’s defense after previously serving as the team’s defensive coordinator from 2017 to 2020. During those four years, Saleh’s defenses allowed just 5.1 yards per play, the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET
Jared Goff was surgical off play action against the Packers in 2024. Across two meetings, he completed 24 of 27 passes with a 115.4 passer rating. Play action was a foundational element of Detroit’s offense all season—Goff led the league with 2,076 play-action passing yards and ranked second with 15 touchdowns on such plays.
For Green Bay, tight end Tucker Kraft emerged as a dynamic weapon after the catch. He totaled 465 yards after the catch, fifth-most among tight ends, and his 9.3 YAC per reception led the position. It also marked the highest single-season average by a tight end since George Kittle’s 9.9 in 2018.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET
The Texans enter the season with four projected new starters along the offensive line and will be tested immediately by the Rams’ young, disruptive front. Houston will especially want to avoid third-and-long situations—on downs with 7 or more yards to go, the Rams posted a 54% pressure rate in 2024, third-highest in the NFL. C.J. Stroud led the league with 28 sacks taken on third down, 17 of which came on third-and-long.
Puka Nacua ran 42% of his routes from the slot as a rookie, but that rate dipped to 30% in Year 2. As a result, he’s likely to see plenty of Derek Stingley Jr., who played outside on 94% of his coverage snaps last season. Nacua ranked second among receivers in yards per route run versus man coverage (3.85), trailing only A.J. Brown, and that number jumped to a league-best 5.80 when he went in motion.
Still, targeting Stingley in man coverage proved costly in 2024, as he led the NFL with five interceptions and allowed a league-low 22.8 passer rating when targeted.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET
The Bills will need to do a better job of defending the middle of the field against Lamar Jackson. In two matchups last season, Jackson completed 20-of-23 passes for 262 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions when throwing inside the numbers. Forcing him outside could be key—his passer rating dropped from 153.7 inside the numbers to just 79.0 when throwing outside.
Buffalo’s red-zone success last season was fueled by its ground game. After recording just one red-zone rushing touchdown combined in 2022 and 2023, James Cook scored 12 in 2024, while Josh Allen added another 11. The Bills and Lions were the only teams with multiple players reaching double-digit red-zone rushing touchdowns. That rushing dominance was on full display in Buffalo’s playoff win over the Ravens, as the Bills ran 14 times for 57 yards and three touchdowns in the red zone, each a season high allowed by Baltimore’s defense.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Monday, 8:15 pm ET
With Jordan Addison out and Justin Jefferson nursing a hamstring injury, T.J. Hockenson could be in for a big night against the Bears defense. Last season, Chicago allowed 6.4 yards after the catch per reception to tight ends—the second-worst mark in the league, trailing only the Saints (6.5), whose defense was led by new Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
While Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense can present challenges for quarterbacks, that wasn’t the case for then-rookie Caleb Williams. Against the blitz, Williams posted an 88.9 PFF passing grade—the highest of any quarterback against the Vikings last season. His 118.3 passer rating versus the blitz also led all opposing QBs.
Source link
![[Spoiler] Evicted in Season 27, Week 8](https://tvline.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/big-brother-week-8-eviction.png?w=650 "[Spoiler] Evicted in Season 27, Week 8")
