With just a few more days until the 2025 college football season gets fully underway, it’s time to take a look at some of the crazy-but-maybe-realistic outcomes we could see this season.
No, I’m not going to predict that Bill Belichick takes UNC to the College Football Playoff or that the national championship game is decided by a walk-off 65-yard field goal. We’ll stay (somewhat) grounded in reality.
Here are my 10 bold predictions for the 2025 college football season:
1. Arch Manning will win the Heisman Trophy
It’s rare that the odds-on favorite in the preseason actually wins this award. Consider last year’s betting favorites heading into Week 1: Dillon Gabriel, Carson Beck, Quinn Ewers, Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart. Just one (Gabriel) of those five players even earned a trip to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Put another way, the eventual winner — Colorado two-way superstar Travis Hunter — had odds of +5000 on BetMGM at one point before the season began, which were the third-longest odds of any Heisman winner in the last decade-plus. Even Joe Burrow, who ended up quarterbacking arguably the greatest offense in college history at LSU in 2019, had preseason odds of +4000 to win the Heisman.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the favorite to win this thing this year, according to all of the major sportsbooks. Obviously, a lot of that has to do with his last name and the expectations the sports world has for Peyton and Eli’s nephew now that he’s taking over the reins at Texas with Steve Sarkisian as his play caller. But Arch Manning has only completed 61 passes in his college career to date. He’s still largely unproven, and the expectations around him are sky-high.
But … what if he meets them? What if Texas wins the SEC and makes it all the way to the national championship game? What if the Longhorns’ running backs stay healthy, their defensive stars dominate the way they’re capable of, and this team is actually one of the very best in the nation? Well, if that happens, Manning’s every move all season will be scrutinized, and every highlight will be shown on repeat. W means he would not just be a lock to make it to New York City — he’ll be taking that trophy home.
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2. Penn State will beat multiple top-five opponents in the regular season
It’s hard to talk about Penn State this time of year, because you have to decide you believe the Nittany Lions can do the thing they haven’t been able to do over the course of James Franklin’s 11 previous seasons at the helm. Or, you believe they can’t because they haven’t done it yet. This is a dynamic that exists in all of our lives. I don’t always know that I’m capable of doing something until I do it, and then, suddenly, I’ve done it. Penn State can’t convince us it’s going to win big games until after the clock hits zero, and the Nittany Lions have more points than their opponent does.
It’s a national championship-or-bust kind of year in State College. To compete for a national title, you’ve got to be able to beat teams like Oregon and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions may not have to beat both to win a Big Ten title and/or make the CFP field, but those are the only games that are going to show us if we can take this team seriously when we get to the postseason.
My bold prediction is I think Penn State beats both Oregon (at home) and Ohio State (on the road in what would become the biggest win of Franklin’s tenure so far). The Buckeyes have the best offensive player in the country in Jeremiah Smith and the best defensive player in the country in Caleb Downs, but they are inexperienced in so many other places. Franklin has lost 15 of 16 games vs. AP top-five opponents while at Penn State. If he’s going to turn that stat around, he’s got to do it with this veteran team this season. Boldly, I proclaim that he will.
3. Two receivers will make it to New York City as Heisman Trophy finalists
This may not be as bold as some of my previous proclamations because the two players most likely to make this true are Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Alabama’s Ryan Williams. Everyone knows how good both receivers are and how impactful they were as true freshmen. Now, Smith will have to break in a new quarterback in Columbus, just like Williams will have to do in Tuscaloosa. So, that could certainly impact their production this year. But … it’s Ohio State. The Buckeyes are always immensely talented. New quarterback Julian Sayin is a former five-star recruit who, by all accounts, is more than ready to take the reins of this offense. So, as long as Smith stays healthy and can find ways to get open, he’ll make his highlight reel-worthy plays … which then literally play as highlights on every major channel and website. We’ll all see him do special things all year — Heisman moment after Heisman moment. And those moments convince voters to put him on their ballot.
It’s a similar situation at Alabama, though in this case it has taken Ty Simpson a few years to earn the starting quarterback job. But I’m expecting the Crimson Tide offense to be much improved from a season ago — and, more importantly, much more consistent now that Ryan Grubb is there at offensive coordinator (and reunited with head coach Kalen DeBoer). I don’t put all of last year’s inconsistent play on Jalen Milroe’s shoulders — though he did throw a number of poorly timed interceptions — but I do think a new QB-OC pairing will be a welcome development for a team I expect to make the College Football Playoff.
Plus, these are the same voters who picked a two-way player to win the award a season ago and a running back out of the Mountain West as the runner-up. This group of Heisman voters is happy to vote for non-quarterbacks to win this thing.
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4. There will be a four-way tie atop the Big 12 standings
Thank goodness the Big 12 created a special website last year to track its championship race and all the myriad tiebreakers … because we’re going to need it again this fall. This conference is by far the most interesting of the Power 4 from top to bottom, because its teams are all bunched up closer to one another than anyone else. It truly feels like any team can beat any other on any given Saturday, which makes predictions and picks nearly impossible in this league.
I’m not sure which four teams will be the four that end up atop the league’s standings, prompting various combinations of tiebreakers, but I feel semi-confident it will include at least two of the following: Arizona State, Iowa State, Utah and/or Texas Tech. I know it’s nearly impossible to repeat as Big 12 champions considering the makeup of the conference, but the Sun Devils bring back the top returning quarterback (Sam Leavitt) and receiver (Jordyn Tyson) in the country and have earned my trust (at least at this point). The Cyclones pounded out a really nice win over fellow Big 12 contender Kansas State in Ireland, putting them in the lead in the league standings heading into Week 1. Meanwhile, the Utes feel like a dark horse pick after a down couple of years dealing with injuries to Cam Rising, and Texas Tech has spent a fortune on piecing together the best team (oil) money can buy this offseason. Someone’s got to win this league, but it really feels like it’s going to come down to math and spreadsheets when all is said and done.
5. The ACC will send just one team to the CFP — but it’ll be the No. 1 overall seed
I’m all-in on Clemson, and I’ve got a ton of questions for everybody else in the ACC. The Tigers checked in at No. 4 in the preseason AP poll, with Miami (No. 10) and SMU (No. 16) landing as the next-highest ranked ACC teams. Preseason polls are notoriously unreliable — four teams that made the 12-team CFP last season were unranked this time last year — but it does give a good gauge of the general expectations for the top of the ACC this year. And I’m just not sure I buy what the Hurricanes are selling. Two years ago, Carson Beck was very good at Georgia. But last year, he really, really struggled. It didn’t help that the Bulldogs couldn’t catch passes, but his 12 interceptions were double what he’d thrown the season before, and they often came in bunches. Beck will be playing behind what should be a solid offensive line, but this is still the same team that won games last year because Cam Ward would scramble around until he could make magic happen. Beck isn’t the same kind of quarterback that Ward was, and Miami’s defense was so porous it’s hard to believe that it’ll be significantly better until we see it against a capable offense. I just don’t trust it.
SMU, Louisville and Georgia Tech are three ACC teams that intrigue me, but I don’t know that I see any of them as CFP contenders right now. We’ll see if the Yellow Jackets’ performance vs. Clemson in Week 3 changes my feelings about their ceiling this season, though — because the rest of their ACC schedule is quite favorable. And I really like the way Brent Key is building this program, from the style of play to the toughness exhibited by literally every player on the field (including veteran quarterback Haynes King).
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6. The coach who loses the Baylor-Auburn game in Week 1 will not make it to the end of the season
The coaching carousel is expected to be a lot more active this year. Last winter, a bunch of Power 4 head coaches played themselves off the hot seat — and their schools decided it would be better to avoid spending millions on buyouts ahead of the revenue-sharing era. Now that athletic departments can pay their athletes up to $20.5 million on an annual basis, there is a slightly different calculation each school needs to make. Or maybe School X will pull the plug on a coach anyway, believing a new head coach is the only way to get donors to give money and to get recruits to consider the program. Typically, in moments that could lend themselves to financial frugality in college sports, decision-makers opt instead for frivolity.
So, I’m not holding my breath.
That brings us to a very intriguing Week 1 matchup between Dave Aranda’s Baylor Bears and Hugh Freeze’s Auburn Tigers. Freeze is 11-14 over two seasons with a very impatient fan/donor base. Aranda is two seasons removed from a dreadful 3-9 campaign. Of the two situations, Auburn feels like the hotter seat, considering that 1) Freeze’s predecessor, Bryan Harsin, was fired after a 9-12 start; and 2) Freeze’s buyout structure makes it a lot more doable than other contracts that require the full amount of the buyout paid within 30 days. Auburn can spread out its payments through 2028, which helps the calculus. It becomes an important point if Auburn continues to struggle at the quarterback position; Freeze was supposed to be a quarterback whisperer, and he’s had terrible quarterback play through two seasons. It’s unclear if he’s fixed that this season, as he said he might want to play three quarterbacks in the season-opener.
7. Iowa will have a 3,000-yard passer for the first time since 2011
Yes, I’m serious. The Hawkeyes actually have a quarterback this year! Former South Dakota State quarterback Mark Gronowski averaged 2,915 passing yards over the past three seasons before transferring to Iowa. I know that production came at the Football Championship Subdivision level, but we’ve seen a number of prolific FCS quarterbacks make the transition to FBS and continue to pick apart defenses. (Plus, Gronowski is practicing each day against Iowa’s own defense, which is always among the best in the Big Ten and/or the nation. And Gronowski did what he did at the highest level of FCS football, winning two FCS national titles in the process.)
Gronowski has gotten rave reviews from the Iowa coaching staff, particularly when it comes to his judgment and ability to change protections. Even if he’s just a better-than-average FBS quarterback, he’ll be such a vast improvement for the Hawkeyes that it opens up so many more possibilities for the entire offense. If opposing defenses have to respect and prepare for a passing attack, well, that changes everything! Even if Gronowski can’t break the 3,000-yard barrier, it’s got to be so much better than the production this program has gotten out of its recent quarterbacks. No Hawkeye has thrown for more than 2,000 yards in a season since Nate Stanley did it in 2019. It’s hard to attract or develop great wide receivers with such an inept passing game, so here’s hoping that position group can develop alongside the starting QB.
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8. Oklahoma will be a vastly improved football team but win just one more game than it did a year ago
I’m pretty high on the Sooners as we approach the start of the season. Washington State transfer John Mateer is must-see TV, an exhilarating player whose legs will create more opportunities for an offense that struggled to get much of anything going a year ago. Plus, the Sooners are adding Cal star running back transfer Jaydn Ott, who rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns when fully healthy in 2023. So, I think the offense will be markedly better. I also think the defense will be, too, especially with head coach Brent Venables taking a more hands-on approach, including calling plays. Venables got the Oklahoma job because he was one of the very best defensive coordinators in the country for more than a decade, and it’s hard to imagine that his direct involvement in the Sooner defense doesn’t make a big difference this fall.
But … the schedule is brutal. Oklahoma has a home game against Michigan in nonconference play with a game against preseason No. 1 Texas to open SEC play — with road trips to Tuscaloosa, Knoxville and Columbia on tap. (Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina are all ranked in the preseason poll.) Then, Oklahoma still has Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU at home to round things out. These Sooners could easily go 7-5, a slight step up from last year’s 6-6 performance. So, the win-loss record may not reflect it, but this is going to be a vastly improved team.
9. The Big Ten won’t agree to change the College Football Playoff format by the Dec. 1 deadline, so the bracket stays at 12 for next season
We all know that the Big Ten and the SEC have to agree to change the CFP format if it’s going to change. They control the bulk of the decision-making process, and if they don’t agree to expand the bracket from 12 teams to 14 or 16, then it will roll over to next year with a 12-team bracket in place. I’ve argued that this is a great outcome for the sport, so it’s a bold prediction that I hope ends up being correct.
However, there are those in the industry who expect the Big Ten to agree to support a 5+11 model — the five highest-ranked conference champions and 11 at-large teams — now that the SEC added a ninth conference game, beginning next fall. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said that, when discussing at-large-heavy models like that, it matters: 1) what kinds of conference schedules everyone is playing; and 2) how the selection committee is evaluating teams. The SEC’s decision solves the first problem, but it doesn’t address the second, which gives Petitti something to fixate on if he wants to keep the waters muddy here. If he refuses to acquiesce and support the 5+11 model that the rest of the Power 4 leaders support, he can stop it from being implemented next year. And I think that could very well happen.
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10. Bill Belichick’s UNC squad makes the Mayo Bowl; he receives mayonnaise bath …
… delivered by his girlfriend, Jordon Hudson. The potential for a mayo bath was the very first thing I thought of when Belichick was officially announced as the Tar Heels’ head coach. It would be the perfect way to end a most unlikely first college season for the 73-year-old. It would also mark a relatively successful season, with an 8-5 final record (or something similar).
It’s either the Mayo Bowl or the Pop-Tarts Bowl. There can be no other options for Chapel Bill.
