When coaches identify what is most important from watching an opponent’s game film, it is all about the matchups. Once it is clear what the opposing defense and offense will want to do as far as overall strategy, the crucial part of a game plan is to look at the personnel matchups that they will be attacking as well as which ones we will be attacking. Based on those matchups, the game plan is to shore up or hide wherever we are weaker and to exploit where we are stronger.
Scott Satterfield will want to establish the running game, which leads to what Cincinnati hopes will be their primary offensive advantage against what is potentially Nebraska’s greatest defensive weakness….
1) Cincinnati’s interior running game versus Nebraska’s interior defensive line.
Nash Hutmacher and Ty Robinson were the heart of Nebraska’s defense a year ago. Their graduation combined with the transfer of Jimari Butler to the LSU Tigers meant that Nebraska returns none of their three primary starters from the past 2 seasons. When Tony White (Defensive Coordinator) left for Florida State after the regular season, he took Terry Knighton (Defensive Line coach) with him. When combined with the constricting of limits on the number of players who could be on the roster, the domino effect was that other backup D-linemen either followed along or transferred elsewhere, such as Princewell Umanmielen (Ole Miss), Kai Wallen (Oregon State), James Williams (Florida State), Brodie Tagaloa (Sacramento St), and Vincent Carroll-Jackson (UConn). That is an incredible amount of turnover for one off-season, but it is noteworthy that there was one player (Keona Davis) who entered the portal but was then coaxed back to Nebraska. The details are unknown, but it’s likely that he received a significant uptick in NIL money to induce him to stay. Who is left? Does Nebraska have the beef to shore things up?
Elijah Jeudy and Riley Van Poppel are listed as first- and second-string at Nose Tackle, respectively. If either is able to plug up the A-gaps individually, Nebraska should be able to run a base 3-man front with the DEs lined up directly across from the Bearcats’ Offensive Tackles. This is the base front of Tony White’s 3-3-5 defense, and Matt Rhule has said that the plan is to keep the same basic defensive concepts. If either Jeudy or Van Poppel are struggling to hold down the middle, Nebraska will have to either cheat their Des further inside to take away double-teams on the NT, but that will then require adjustments from the LBs to cover the edges more. Another possible adjustment would be play Jeudy and Van Poppel together, sliding Van Poppel out to a DE position that plays inside of the OT across from him. If both can hold their own while drawing double-teams, it will leave the opposite DE in 1-on-1 situations. That sets up Willliams Nwaneri and Cam Lenhardt to be free to make plays, and that is a favorable matchup for Nebraska. Even when Hutmacher and Robinson weren’t making tackles last year, they were almost always occupying at least 3 (often 4) opposing linemen, which made it possible for the LBs to run free to fill lanes and fly to the ball. Cincinnati has a good offensive line, and Satterfield is going to want to test the middle early to see if Jeudy and Van Poppel can hold their ground.
It is not a coincidence that Cincinnati brought in two transfers at Running Back to strengthen that position, which will put further pressure on Nebraska’s interior defense. Tawee Walker is a physical running back transferring in from Wisconsin, and Evan Pryor is a big-play RB coming in from Ohio State. Cincinnati is trying to build a traditional Big Ten type of bruising offense, and they’re doing it by adding Big Ten players to key positions. Besides the 2 RB transfers, they also added Patrick Gurd, a Tight End from Ohio State who can be physically imposing as a blocker. Cincinnati also added 3 OTs from the portal, though none of those were from Power-4 conference schools.
Advantage = Cincinnati
It would be an incredibly positive development for Nebraska to be able to stop the Bearcats with the Huskers’ base defense, but John Butler (Def. Coord.) will likely have to finetune the details to make adjustments.
2) Brendan Sorsby (#2, QB) versus Nebraska edge defenders.
Brendan Sorsby is a dual-threat QB who finished 2024 with 2,813 passing yards—which was only 6 yards less than Dylan Raiola—but he also added 445 yards rushing with 9 rushing TDs. He averaged 4.26 yards per carry. Like Nebraska, Cincinnati lacked a significant deep threat at the WR positions, but they picked up some potential threats via the portal. While Nebraska’s secondary should be able to handle the Bearcats’ WRs, if they are good enough to force Nebraska’s secondary to protect against the deep ball, Sorsby will have fewer defenders to account for in the running game. With the likely need for Nebraska to shift their front-line slightly towards the middle, Sorsby will likely be in a lot of situations where there are potential opportunities to either keep the ball on read-option plays or to scramble on passing plays. Sorsby, at 6’3” and 235 lb, is a load to bring down, and he has proven to be a tough and athletic runner.
Nebraska has the tools to deal with the running side of a dual-threat QB in that they have a solid secondary with both depth and experience who should be able to lock down the passing side of the other side of the “dual” threat, which leaves the edge rushers and LBs mostly free to contain and pursue the QB. Cincinnati’s OL will likely struggle to set up a clean pocket for obvious passing situations, so as long as the edge rusher and any blitzers maintain their containment, there should be opportunities for big plays from the Huskers defense. Williams Nwaneri (#96, RFr) has become the pleasant surprise of late on defense, being listed first as a co-starter at DE with Cam Lenhardt (#11, JR). Nwaneri looks like a science project of NFL scouts trying to develop the perfect human specimen to play DE as he 6’7″ with a 7′ wingspan, and with an explosiveness and speed that are exceptionally rare in a man of his size (265 lb). If it weren’t for Nwaneri, I would be describing Lenhardt’s exceptional quickness and athletic ability. These are the kind of edge defenders who were missing during the Scott Frost era. Not to rub salt in old wounds, but if you remember numerous potential big plays during the Frost era where an edge defender or blitzing LB came loose and was in position to make a huge sack or tackle for loss,… but somehow missed the tackle [pause for the frustration to subside], Nwaneri and Lenhardt are physically built to remove a lot of those variables. It’s a lot tougher to elude a stampeding defender coming off the edge when his outspread arms cover half of the pocket.
In most situations the opposite side of the defense will be the JACK LB. The JACK is a linebacker who typically plays on the line-of-scrimmage and usually rushes the passer. Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas represented an evolution of defenses in the 80s and 90s when they showed that a defender with LB size and agility could be a force to reckoned with when he was lined up far enough outside of the Offensive Tackle that his quickness made it possible to get to the QB before the OT could slide-step out far enough to intercept him. Nebraska’s starting JACK was MJ Sherman a year ago. While Sherman was very good against the run, he didn’t have the game-changing big plays in the backfield that could change a game. Willis McGahee IV (#17, Soph) saw some playing time last year as a true freshman, and he often shined when he got on the field, recording a sack, 1.5 tackles for loss, a pass breakup, and 2 forced fumbles. With the graduation of Sherman, it was expected that McGahee would take over the position, but he is currently listed as 3rd string on the depth chart behind Dasan McCullough (#15, SR) and Jordan Ochoa (#94, RFr). McCullough came via the portal from the Oklahoma Sooners where he had underperformed after transferring from Indiana. Part of the problem with his time in Oklahoma is that he didn’t have a good position fit within the concepts of the Sooners defense, so the hope is that he will get back to what he showed at Indiana by playing in a similar position within a similar defensive structure. Ochoa redshirted last year, so he has actually been in the program for the same amount of time as McGahee. If you’re a pessimist, you will assume that McGahee has been backsliding, so his being listed as third on the depth chart is a negative. If you’re an optimist, you assume that McGahee has continued to develop since he played well in the bowl game, but it’s great news that we have recruited over him (with McCullough) and developed past him (with Ochoa). I lean towards the latter.
Advantage = Nebraska
Any coach or defender will tell you that they prefer to play against QBs who are one-dimensional because the added threat of the run complicates assignments and strategies. Buddy Ryan did well as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in the late 80s by having a dominating defense and Randall Cunningham at QB because he knew that if the defense locked down their offense, a dual-threat QB would eventually make a big play to score and win the game. Barry Switzer became a legend by doing that to Osborne’s teams in the 70s, which ultimately led to Osborne adapting an offensive system built around a dual-threat QB. Sorsby is a threat that must be contained, but Nebraska’s roster, defensive gameplan, and especially its edge rushers are all built to contain him.
3) The Cincinnati defense versus Dana Holgorsen’s play-calling.
The front 7 of Cincinnati’s 2024 defense was very good, but their secondary was not. They brought in several defensive backs to try and shore it up, but it will likely still be the weakest part of the team. Likewise, with the return of a healthy Dontay Corleone (#2, NT, R-SR) in the middle, it is going to be tough to run inside. Corleone is already a 3-time all-conference noseguard, but he missed chunks of the 2024 season due to blood clots. Apart from health issues, Corleone is a future NFL starting NT, and this season needs to be his highlight reel to move higher up the order of the draft. He’s a problem,… but it’s very possible to game-plan against a top-tier NT as long as the Center is able to get the snap off cleanly. The interior of Nebraska’s offensive line is probably the team’s greatest strength, so they need to step up and take care of business against Corleone. A dominant 335 lb war-daddy with the nickname “the Godfather” is not someone to overlook, but … can Nebraska run inside against Cincinnati? The Huskers do not need to run inside to win, but wouldn’t it be worth testing to see how we fare?
Lots of Nebraska fans are still convinced that Holgorsen has installed the Air Raid offense, and we’re now going to start throwing the ball 50 times per game. Even avid fans would mostly struggle to define what the Air Raid offense is, apart from using names as examples, such as Mike Leach and Hal Mumme, who developed the offense. (Trivia worth knowing: Mumme and Leach designed the Air Raid offense as a pass-heavy offense, but the base of the offense was the Wishbone, which is one of the most run-heavy offenses ever invented.) Holgorsen, himself, says that he hasn’t run an Air Raid offense since he was last at Texas Tech, which was when he was their OC in 2007.
When Holgorsen joined Kevin Sumlin’s staff at Houston in 2008, there were zone-read components that had been added to Sumlin’s version of the Air Raid that made it something different. Their offense included motion and some hurry-up/no-huddle tempo concepts. If Husker fans want to really salivate over something fun and run-based, research the Diamond formation that Holgersen developed at Oklahoma State right after leaving Houston/ It has the QB in shotgun formation with a running back (or WR) lined up to either side of him and another behind. (Here is some background on it, if you’re interested.) He took that to Oklahoma State under Mike Gundy where most avid fans will remember Brandon Weeden throwing lots of balls to Justin Blackmon in 2011, but does anyone remember their running back? Kendall Hunter ran for 1,548 yards with a 5.7 yard average per carry.
When Holgersen took over at West Virginia, he ran an offense that looked more like Rich Rodriguez’s Zone-Read Triple-(or Quadruple-)Option offense of the late 2000s. Somewhere along the way he discovered the wonders of using TEs, especially those who could be moved around: in-line, flexed, or as an H-back in the backfield. When Holgorsen took over at Nebraska last year, he still ran the same offense that had been set up under Marcus Satterfield, but he simplified it by removing lots of plays, and he tweaked it by pairing up different routes with different concepts. Was it an “Air Raid” offense? Absolutely not, but what most casual fans don’t understand is that the base plays of the original Air Raid offense have been so incorporated into every other offensive scheme that you could make a legitimate claim that EVERY NFL offense is now some variant of the Air Raid. If you’re familiar with pass plays such “4 Verticals,” “Mesh,” “Y-Cross,” “Shallow,” “Stick,” and “Spot,” those are the 6 plays that made up the Mike Leach Air Raid system. Each included adaptations based on defensive coverages and techniques, but that was the whole offense. Lincoln Riley was symbolically kicked out of the Air Raid “club” once he started using gap-scheme running plays, like the Counter-Trey.
Because the original Air Raid plays and concepts are in almost every current modern offense, it wasn’t necessary for Holgorsen to change the offense last year when he took over as OC in the middle of the season. He said that he kept the same terminology being used as it was easier for him to adapt than it would have been to force a new system of vocabulary upon the whole offense. It is similar to using a second language. It’s easier to learn French when living in Paris than expect everyone around you to speak and understand English, but it’s a heck of a learning curve.
Rhule is going to want Holgorsen to still be able to run the ball between the tackles. There will also be lots of plays like Jet Sweeps and Swing Passes that function equivalent to running plays, though recorded as pass plays (if the Jet Sweep includes a slightly forward pitch instead of a direct handoff). At the end of the season I would guesstimate that Nebraska will finish with somewhere between 55 to 60% of its offensive plays being considered passes, but when accounting for the short-pass plays that are conceptually the same as running plays to the edge, it should effectively be close to a 50/50 split. What Nebraska needs is both an offense that can move the ball (and score) and successfully handle short-yardage situations. Against a defense like Cincinnati’s, it will likely be necessary to have some success throwing the ball in order to be able to successfully run the ball. If Nebraska is able to line up and successfully run against the Bearcats defense, there will be a lot of reasons for optimism for the season as a whole. If they struggle to run the ball early, but it opens up a little more in the second half, that’s still good. If Nebraska is forced to be one-dimensional, throwing the ball 40+ times? It’s time to pump the brakes on making your plans around Nebraska’s playoff schedule.
Advantage = Nebraska
Holgorsen will find a way to score points. I would be surprised if Nebraska doesn’t score more than 30. It will be HOW they get them that will tell us the most about what to expect down the road.
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