Something rather curious happened — both nationally and locally — last week when BYU football coaches ended months of speculation and named true freshman Bear Bachmeier as the Cougars’ starting quarterback in their season opener Saturday against Portland State.
The move seemed to boost the collective morale of BYU fans throughout the country, and thoughts that the season was going to be a mildly disappointing one after the departure of projected starter Jake Retzlaff dissipated a bit.
Even some national college football observers seemed to jump back on the bandwagon, with this headline on the CBSsports.com encapsulating that notion: “BYU starting freshman QB Bear Bachmeier is a risk, but it comes with Big 12 Championship upside.”
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Wrote Shehan Jeyarajah: “With his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame, Bachmeier boasts the strength and physicality to be an enforcer at the college level. But really, it is his attitude that makes him special.”
Bachmeier’s offensive coordinator and head coach at Murrieta Valley High from 2021-24 told the Deseret News roughly the same thing.
“He is used to college football,” said coach George Wilson. “It is not a big thing for him.”
After Retzlaff’s departure was announced, but before Bachmeier was handed the reins to Aaron Roderick’s offense in 2025, 247sports.com conducted a Big 12 media poll and picked the Cougars to finish ninth, saying the Cougars’ “preseason hype train took a hit” when Retzlaff left the school rather than serve a seven-game suspension for violating BYU’s honor code.
That train might be up and running again, with the bump in confidence that Bachmeier brings to the table.
“Bear will bring a steady resolve and a tenacity to the team that everyone will rally around,” said his brother, new BYU receiver Tiger Bachmeier.
“I am not going to make any statements (about) how good we can be. We just show it on the field and let people find out for themselves.”
— BYU coach Kalani Sitake
Presumably with the knowledge of Bear Bachmeier’s rapid ascendence to QB1 in Provo, ESPN’s most recent Football Power Index (FPI) favors BYU to win 11 of its 12 regular-season games this season. BYU starts the season at No. 22 in the FPI, behind only No. 18 Kansas State in the Big 12.
The analytics-driven FPI gives the Cougars a 26.13% chance of winning 10 or more games before postseason play. If nothing else, BYU’s 2025 schedule seems a bit less difficult than last year’s, when the opponents didn’t turn out to be as formidable and the Cougars went 11-2 and thrashed Colorado in the Alamo Bowl.
Had Retzlaff not left, BYU probably would have made the Associated Press college football preseason top-25 rankings. BYU is first, and Utah is second, among unranked teams also receiving votes, and would be ranked No. 26 if the survey extended that far.
Head coach Kalani Sitake was asked how good his 10th team at BYU can be this season, and his answer was definitely not a surprise.
“Yeah, we have a lot of work to go,” he said early last week. “I am not going to make any statements (about) how good we can be. We just show it on the field and let people find out for themselves.”
Because the season is finally here, now seems like as good a time as any to present the Deseret News’ annual rating of the Cougars’ football schedule, in order of difficulty.
Please remember that this isn’t a ranking of the best teams on BYU’s schedule. Rather, it is an analysis of which games will be the hardest for BYU to win, with factors such as venues, travel complications, history and rivalry factored in.
Of course, these predictions are never perfect. Last year, for instance, we said the November game at Utah would be BYU’s most difficult (the Cougars eked out a 22-21 win at Rice-Eccles) and the games against Kansas (seventh hardest) and Arizona State (10th hardest) would be among the easiest. Everyone knows how those turned out.
College football is nothing if not unpredictable; that’s one of the reasons why we love it so much. With that in mind, here’s our ranking of BYU’s games in 2025, hardest to easiest:
1. At Iowa State
The BYU-Iowa State showdown on Oct. 25 will mark the Cougars’ first Big 12 game at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, and it should be a doozy. Iowa State is one of the favorites to win the league, and played in the Big 12 championship game last year, losing to Arizona State.
According to ESPN’s FPI, and almost every other indicator, this will be the hardest game on BYU’s schedule. FPI gave BYU a 47% chance of winning before the Cyclones edged Kansas State 24-21 in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday.
Iowa State’s roster includes two Utahns — receiver Dominic Overby of West Jordan High and offensive lineman Vaea Ikakoula of West High. The Cyclones pounded BYU 45-13 in 2023 in Provo; will the Cougars be out for revenge?
2. At Texas Tech
BYU makes its first-ever trip to Lubbock, Texas, to take on a Red Raiders team that has gained a lot of notoriety in the offseason for the program’s willingness to pay high prices for top-notch talent via NIL and revenue-sharing. There’s a little bit of history between the teams, as BYU’s 27-14 win over Tech in Provo in October 2023 was marred by allegations from BYU players that Tech players spat in their faces several times in the contest at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Video replays seemed to back up those claims, which Tech coach Joey McGuire originally had denied. Although FPI gives BYU a 56% chance of winning this game, the Cougars quite likely will be an underdog in Lubbock.
Schedule-makers gave BYU a slight advantage, as the Cougars have a bye the week before the game, while Texas Tech will play at Kansas State.
3. Utah
For BYU, Game 7 against the rival Utes on Oct. 18 begins a wicked three-game stretch in which folks will really find out whether this is a Big 12 contender, or not. Will it be Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s last game against the school for which he played? Intrigue will abound.
Having been picked to win the Big 12 last year, then performing a face plant of near-epic proportions, Utah is again predicted to finish near the top of the league. The game, as BYU goes for a third-straight victory in the series, will also mark the return of new Utah offensive coordinator Jason Beck to Provo.
Beck played quarterback for BYU from 2004-06 and was BYU’s QB coach from 2013-15 under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. FPI gives BYU a 70% chance of extending its winning streak over Utah to three games, something that hasn’t happened since the early 1990s.
4. TCU
BYU was sailing along nicely in its first season in the Big 12 before having to face the Frogs in Fort Worth on Oct. 14, 2023, and the results weren’t pretty. Josh Hoover torched BYU’s defense for 439 yards and four touchdowns and the Cougars’ season subsequently spiraled downward.
TCU comes to Provo for the first time since it was a big rival of BYU’s in the Mountain West Conference and games between the annual contenders were must-see affairs. With Hoover back, and coming off a 9-4 record, TCU should be considered a Big 12 title contender, from this viewpoint. We will see.
FPI gives BYU a 68% chance to win; that seems a bit too high, given how well TCU has played in Provo in the distant past.
5. At Colorado
After BYU walloped Colorado 36-14 in the Alamo Bowl, the Buffaloes will surely be out for revenge on Sept. 27 in Boulder, making this one of the most dangerous games on BYU’s 2025 Big 12 schedule.
The Cougars will be coming off a bye week, while the Buffaloes will be out to settle the score. Maybe they will show BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker’s mimicking of Deion Sanders’ old celebration routine after Glasker came up with an interception in the Alamo Bowl on loop at team headquarters all week.
Former Colorado offensive lineman Isaiah Jatta, now at BYU, says he’s eager to revisit his former home.
“I’m most definitely excited to play against them,” Jatta said. “When you build relationships with that coaching staff and some of the players on the team, there are going to be high emotions. Not a crazy type of emotion, but I know those people. I’m familiar with them. … I feel like every game is a big deal for me. … I never want to get too emotional while I’m playing.”
6. At Arizona
Arizona is another team looking for revenge on BYU, after the Cougars crushed the Wildcats 41-19 last year in Provo. The showdown on Oct. 11 in Tucson marks BYU’s first return to that city since UofA fans chanted derogatory religious slurs at BYU’s basketball team after a Cougars’ victory last February.
There might be six better teams on BYU’s schedule than Arizona, but given the location of this rematch and the fact that the Wildcats will be more experienced at quarterback should give BYU some concern.
The Cougars’ win probability, per FPI, is 73%
7. At Cincinnati
BYU plays at Cincinnati for the first time since a Taysom Hill-powered 20-3 victory over the Bearcats back in 2016 at Nippert Stadium, coach Kalani Sitake’s first season at the helm. The Cougars beat the Bearcats 35-28 in 2023, BYU’s first Big 12 win.
This Week 11 matchup could get tricky for BYU, as Cincinnati generally plays well at home, and the weather could get ugly. The Bearcats also have one of the best defensive players in the country, defensive tackle Dontay Corleone. Cincinnati opens its season against Nebraska, a nice Big 12 vs. Big Ten matchup that should give observers a good idea of how Cincinnati will fare in 2025.
8. At East Carolina
We’ve been saying for months that this matchup in Greenville, North Carolina, is going to be much more difficult than most BYU fans suspect it will be. East Carolina is always loaded with outstanding athletes, and tends to play well against Power Four competition, especially at home.
The Pirates went 8-5 last year, 5-3 in the American Athletic Conference, and defeated North Carolina State 26-21 in the Military Bowl.
Throw in the fact that BYU will be playing two time zones away against a team that defeated it the last two times they met, 2017 and 2022, and there should be some serious concern in Provo for this nonconference matchup. At least the Cougars will have a bye before the long trip.
Should former BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe have bought his way out of this Sept. 20 game? Time will tell.
9. UCF
Senior Day/Senior Night could get interesting in Provo on Nov. 29, especially if the visiting team from Orlando faces freezing temperatures at LaVell Edwards Stadium. The Cougars handled the Knights easily last year in the Sunshine State, despite giving up a few late scores to make the game appear closer than it was.
Scott Frost has returned to coach the team, after a successful first stint that led him to get the Nebraska job. UCF went 4-8 last under Gus Malzahn, who was fired and then got the offensive coordinator job at Florida State.
10. West Virginia
BYU’s traditional Friday-before-General-Conference game on Oct.3 will also feature a coach returning to a former employer after stints elsewhere. Rich Rodriguez is back coaching the Mountaineers and faces a big rebuild in Morgantown.
West Virginia tied for eighth in the Big 12 last year with a 5-4 league mark. That would seemingly be good enough for a coach to keep his job, but Neal Brown was fired after a 52-15 blowout loss to Texas Tech late in the year.
West Virginia embarrassed BYU 37-7 in Morgantown in 2023 and will be making its first-ever visit to Provo.
11. Stanford
This game didn’t appear to be all that intriguing until a couple of months ago, when brothers Bear and Tiger Bachmeier left Stanford and transferred to BYU after having gone through spring practices on The Farm. Of course, Bear Bachmeier, a true freshman, earned the starting quarterback job and will face his old school on Sept. 6 at LaVell Edwards Stadium, barring anything unforeseen happening in BYU’s opener Saturday against Portland State.
ESPN’s FPI gives BYU an 81% chance of winning the game and repeating its 35-26 victory over the Cardinal in 2022 in California. Stanford fell 23-20 at Hawaii on Saturday.
12. Portland State
Many BYU fans still remember what happened the last time the FCS Vikings visited LaVell Edwards Stadium for an early-season payday game in Provo. BYU didn’t pull away until the fourth quarter in a 20-6 win in 2017.
Of course, that was a sign of things to come, as the Cougars finished 4-9 in Sitake’s second season and had quarterback issues throughout the season. The Vikings, who went 3-8 last year, 3-5 in the Big Sky Conference, don’t appear to be capable of throwing a scare into anyone this year, let alone BYU. They were crushed at home 42-0 by Tarleton State on Saturday.
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