ASML Hedges Growth Outlook for 2026 as Trade Wars Weigh on Sales

(Bloomberg) — ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back the company’s sales forecast for next year, blaming trade disputes and global tensions.

Most Read from Bloomberg

“We continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments,” Fouquet said in a statement on ASML’s quarterly results Wednesday. “Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage.”

The Dutch firm’s shares fell as much as 8.5% to €646.30 in Amsterdam on Wednesday, the biggest intraday decline since April 7. They have fallen 32% in the last year.

ASML is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which produce the advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence data centers and smartphones. Chips are currently exempt from US tariffs but there’s uncertainty over how the equipment ASML produces will be affected. The Trump administration’s chaotic trade policy rollout has roiled markets and made planning major spending difficult.

ASML forecast third-quarter net sales between €7.4 billion ($8.6 billion) and €7.9 billion. That’s below the €8.2 billion average analyst estimate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It expects 15% revenue growth for the year.

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said ASML’s clients are delaying commitments until there’s more clarity on tariff and export controls.

“Customers are watching that landscape but are currently faced with that uncertainty,” Dassen said on a call with reporters. “As soon as that becomes clearer, then also their investment plans will become clearer.”

Despite ASML’s downgraded outlook for next year, Fouquet said the company’s “AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong.”

A telegraphed policy reversal in Washington could support demand for ASML equipment. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. said this week they would restart sales of some AI processors to China that had previously been blocked, after gaining assurances from the Trump administration that the shipments would be approved.

“If that ban were to be lifted, that could be seen as a positive for global chip demand for sure,” Dassen said.

ASML faces a number of restrictions on its sales to China, which was the company’s second-biggest market last quarter, with 27% of system sales. It has never been able to sell its EUV machines to China because of US-led restrictions. Last year, the Dutch government also blocked immersion deep ultraviolet lithography systems to the country after pressure from the US.