Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Bieber (TOR) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
We had the joy of watching Shane Bieber on Playback last night and in his final rehab start return from the IL via a date with the Marlins, he made one thing clear: He’s dope and needs to be added wherever possible. His line of 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches (W) was not a product of Blame it on the Marlins, even if they amplified the bottom line a touch. Bieber is back to form.
I’m not talking about his 2023 form, either. Entering the 2024 season, excitement swirled in Cleveland’s spring camp with Bieber showcasing 92/93 mph velocity for the first time since 2021 before he tore his UCL two starts into the season. He picked up where he left off in his return, boasting 92.7 mph four-seamers with 6.9 feet extension, 18″ vert (and 11″ run!) + a 1.4 HAVAA. That’s some lovely under-the-hood metrics, even if the velocity isn’t ideal.
Fastballs have often been the weakness of Bieber’s game and we witnessed a much-improved version that could become a legitimate weapon for batters to fear instead of the respite from his secondaries. Albeit, those marks are from just one start that was sure to come with a steady stream of adrenaline, though showcasing this level of fastball in the first place is icing on the cake.
The stars have always been the secondaries and they didn’t disappoint. Bieber’s slider returned 7/25 whiffs with unbelievable precision – a skill that often takes many starts to reclaim post-TJS. His cutter deftly landed backdoor to LHB for called strikes. He whipped out the changeup and decimated LHB for a trio of strikeouts and 4/11 whiffs. Even the curveball had its moments as well, and I’d expect a higher strike rate in future starts.
I don’t care what league you’re in. You need to roster Bieber. Now. If I were doing the normal List on Monday (It’s the transition every season to the expected schedule version), Bieber would be ranked inside the Top 30, if not Top 25, easily. This wasn’t a fluke. He’s back.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Brayan Bello (BOS) @ NYY (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 92 pitches.
How good has Bello been since he tweaked his approach and attacked batters ferociously? Why, across 82.2 IP and thirteen starts since June 15th, Bello now boasts a 8-5 record with a 2.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate. And -9 hit luck that matches the .239 BABIP + an 83% LOB rate. LET US HAVE THIS. At the very least, his next three matchups look solid and all cylinders are firing at the moment.
Max Fried (NYY) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 99 pitches.
Ahhhhh. It’s about dang time we had a lovely outing from Fried, recording a goose egg and a Golden Goal, and you can’t blame him for the lack of Win. It’s lovely to see the changeup coming back into form and I sure hope that continues.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 65 pitches.
While we were all hyped for Chandler, Ashcraft was able to flex his stuff in an ideal matchup and it may wake some up to his potential. The prize is a 92 mph slider that he spotted beautifully against Rockie Road for 7/23 whiffs, while the empty velocity four-seamer (96+ mph but deadzone without anything exceptional) was able to pound the zone with little damage. I also dig the 83/84 mph curve with proper 1-7 o’clock movement…if he were able to nail it down in the zone constantly. He feels close to being legit, but needs to either refine the command or fix the four-seamer or add something else to this for sustainability. Throw in the whole piggy-back scenario and he’s a Young Gun for 2026.
Bubba Chandler (PIT) vs COL (SV) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 40 pitches.
We EVENTUALLY got to see Bubba after Ashcraft just had to mow down the easiest lineup in sports, and this just felt like another Triple-A outing against Rockie Road. Yes, we’re likely going to see more of this piggy-back tandem with Bashton Axcraft (Nick, uh–I KNOW WHAT I TYPED), which retains the chance for production given potential vulture Wins and a decent chunk of frames each time. In addition, the Pirates could swap the order or even push Bubba into a proper starting role at some point, especially if a player or two lose their spots for whatever reason. Skills-wise, yes, he’s elite. If he were tossing 90 pitches every five days, he’d be in the Top 30 SP due to the obviously electric skills. Chandler features an elite four-seamer (98 mph, 1.3 HAVAA, average extension, 17″ of vert) that found the zone 62% of the time, an 89 mph gyro slider, a legit 91/92 mph changeup for LHB, and a curve that is still developing as it had near gyro movement at five ticks slower than the slider. It’s your standard “yup, that’s dope” above the threshold for command to be a regular arm to trust. It’s likely too small an impact in the short term, but he’s absolutely worthwhile for 2026.
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs ATH (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. This wasn’t even the best of Woo’s ability, but @TEA with the Athletics in town will do that. We’re still at 75% fastballs, by the way.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Eovaldi went to town with low splitters and curves + high cutters and heaters (Canibal McSanchez!). What an incredible season.
Luis Morales (ATH) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
That’s two starts now of Morales finding the zone with his four-seamer, albeit not heavily in the ideal spot upstairs where his 1.6 HAVAA at 97+ mph would benefit the most. And yet, I’m starting to fall for him. That heater is deadly when it is upstairs + the sweeper is unreal. -17″ of horizontal break in this outing, which is incredible to see when paired with 16″ vert on the 97 mph four-seamer. I’d fall for him harder if there was a more reliable #3 pitch in the mix (a changeup that floated up to LHB and a slider + cutter combo in the mid-80s and has rare moments), which could be a sinker given the sweep on the breakers. The Athletics’ rotation is hazy at the moment with Perkins hitting the IL (Estes taking his spot for now) + Severino returning, though I can’t imagine the Athletics resisting more reps for Morales. The Athletics have some favorable starts on the horizon, too. Pay attention.
Yu Darvish (SDP) vs LAD (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 74 pitches.
You likely benched him because of his previous start (it was a poor first inning) and Darvish’s rare success so far this year. And let’s be honest, four whiffs in six frames isn’t the pinnacle of performance. However, the cutter returned as the sole focus to RHB, while a wide array of breakers, splitters, and fastballs attacked LHB in traditional Darvish style. You may not trust him for a full month ahead, but at least it’s @TEA next, yeah?
Javier Assad (CHC) @ LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 72 pitches.
Oh, this again. Assad played the game of mixing cutters and sweepers away and sinkers coming back over the plate to RHB, leading to just one hit. He had two. The other was off the sole curve of the night, flipped over to a LHB for a solo shot. You have to be kidding. Nooooope. Why did he do that?! Because pitchers usually get away with it? Anyway, I’m not sure Assad gets another start with Taillon back and the double-header behind them + he’s only at 72 pitches. And yet, y’all know he’s capable of taking advantage of the elite defense behind him should he face the Giants. Sigh. It shouldn’t work this well.
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ ATL (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
After talking with Eno about McLean during The Craft, I was having second thoughts about my Top 50 ranking of Nolan this past week, due specifically to his high walk rates in the minors, rooted in questionable fastball command. Well, I have some good news: The sinker command was excellent. The four-seamer command was excellent. In fact, the breakers were the ones failing to find strikes this time around, forcing a cutter to chime in for 8/8 strikes and smooth the ride through seven innings. While I don’t love the fact that McLean has displayed inconsistent ability on both sides of his approach across two starts, I am happy to see a correction clearly made to his fastballs. Maybe the curve doesn’t become the stable pitch to LHB, though the 91 mph cutter sure seems like a good replacement for now. Call me an optimist, but I’m starting him against the Phillies and here on out.
Blake Snell (LAD) @ SDP (L) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna fail to understand that it’s Hot Snell Summer, creating a decent but not ZOMG, WHAT A DUDE outing. He didn’t get the chases on his changeups and sliders as we normally see, but that hook destroyed with a 46% CSW and 62% strikes. All cool.
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches.
Slade hurled 94 mph fastballs incessantly over the plate (72% zone rate across 51 thrown!) and allowed just two hits off it – a pair of solo shots. He can’t keep getting away with it! Well, he hasn’t over the last few weeks like he did before, but yeah. It’s not meant to last.
Ryan Bergert (KCR) @ DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 90 pitches.
I think Bergert is the perfect case of a rookie with exceptional command who just needs a little more velocity to become a proper stud. That four-seamer was pinpointed upstairs to LHB at 18″ of vert and 94 mph, going BSB with sweepers, sliders, and changeups to match. RHB saw breakers exclusively away for a ton of strikes, too. It’s refreshing, honestly. Monitor his off-season and if we’re seeing him with consistent improvements in camp next year, he will be on my sleeper lists.
Jose Quintana (MIL) vs SFG (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 82 pitches.
It sure isn’t beautiful, and there’s no dub or QS, but those ratios, y’all. You could go for a swim in em the way they are sparkling. Yes, I’m up for another round against the Sneks next.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Per usual, changeups ruled his world and the Cubs couldn’t take advantage of his other offerings in this one. I’ve missed Tyler The Streamable and I think he’s knocking at your door with tickets to the Rangers game next week. You should answer it.
Carson Whisenhunt (SFG) @ MIL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 88 pitches.
The Giants brought Whisenhunt back into the rotation and despite the wild 25% NC Rate on his sinker, I think he pitched better than one strikeout and an inefficient four frames would suggest. Yes, I know, HAISTBMBWT?! but he did get the changeup down-and-away to RHB exceptionally well, and he executed his plan of elevating the sinker. Consider him a streaming option, but not for two weeks until @STL, with CHC + @COL up next.
Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
The curveball is still so dang pretty. Its 44% CSW with 68% strikes as his most thrown pitch (43% usage!) is the sole reason he was able to return a VPQS, with a Careful, Icarus tacked on via a Stott two-run shot in the sixth. However, I’m still scared he breaks the Huascar Rule with both fastballs returned 15% CSW or lower, despite their 96/97 mph velocity. It’s just not enough, especially with the team context.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
He got the Reds Carpet and delivered a PQS but a 1.00 WHIP and six strikeouts. Yeah, alright, that’s fine. I love that he’s experimenting more with the slider – 32% usage! – and despite its poor 21% CSW and 57% strike rate, he kept it low, returned four strikeouts, and denied a hit. AnakinPodRacingItsWorking.gif
Casey Mize (DET) vs KCR (ND) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 87 pitches.
Blegh. You got nothing. It was a battle all game with his control with the splitter landing high and low + clear frustration with his slider as it nibbled the edges. The man is a Toby and sadly, it’s time to drop him. @ATH, NYM, @NYY await. You don’t want that.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs WSN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
I’ll be honest, this was incredible. Wait, what. You see, I had to sit there and watch Taijuan pitch on the livestream as we waited for the Pirates game to start and we saw him get bamboozled for three runs in a flash. It felt like the end of Walker’s run and we move on. BUT WHAT’S THIS?! He went shutout ball the rest of the way. It’s incredible. The splitter and cutter at 86 mph each plowed their way through at-bats with reckless abandon and the Nationals didn’t adjust. No, I cannot possibly endorse it, but for all you Vargas Rule acolytes, knock yourselves out. I can’t believe he’s still here.
Zack Littell (CIN) @ ARI (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
Speaking of the Vargas Rule for a pitcher with a breaker and splitter, Littell failed to land 60% strikes with any of his splitter, slider, sweeper, or four-seamer and the Sneks elected to force Littell to throw over the plate. Sure, he could bounce back and look completely fine next time out if he gets a start against the Cardinals, but if they skip him for whatever reason, it would be the Jays, Mets, @ATH after that. It’s best to just call it quits.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
This just in, McCullers returns and held an 18% NC Rate across all of his pitches, leading to five walks and a loss of trust with fantasy managers. More at eleven.
Adrian Houser (TBR) vs STL (W) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
Why did they have to tempt fate? Houser completed the sixth with just two runs to his name and a 1.00 WHIP before coming out in the seventh and promptly allowing a two-run shot. Careful, Icarus. That dang slider, y’all. Welp, he is who he is and that should be fine for the Nats up next.
Aaron Civale (CHW) vs MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
He’s not a pitcher to trust with any regularity, not even in 15-teamers. It’s a desperate Win/QS play, that’s it.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ CHW (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Blegh. He labored in the first frame, looked like he collected himself, then fell apart in the fourth and fifth, including a two-run shot in his final frame. It sure seems like he’s a 2026 play at this point as he figures out that control does not equate to command. He didn’t have control, three walks! Ah, those are situational walks, that is, a pitcher loses a batter and doesn’t make the adjustment in the at-bat to fix it, needing a new hitter to reset. really? Yeaaaah, he had a 66% strike rate with his three most thrown pitches all returning 70%+ strikes. It’s something that happens more with young arms and is another reason why he’s looking more like a Young Gun than a September target.
Cade Povich (BAL) vs HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
Ugh, that third frame was tough, including a three-run blast that ruined his night. Then it was made so much worse by some horrible human and it sickens me. He’s likely worthwhile for a stream against the Sawx but not after that with three tough matchups to follow, giving us more time to send him support and ensure our friends aren’t doing terrible things like this.
Miles Mikolas (STL) @ TBR (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 58 pitches.
Yep, looks about right. Don’t walk with shoes to this Miles.
Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 90 pitches.
Ayyyy, he’s getting a shot in the rotation! Annnnnd it’s gone. Nah, he’ll get more reps and they’ll likely butter our bread n all. Just wait for it to be a clear moment to jump in, alright?
Antonio Senzatela (COL) @ PIT (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 86 pitches.
Senzatela has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.
Joey Wentz (ATL) vs NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 79 pitches.
Womp womp. It wasn’t his day. The four-seamer wasn’t getting upstairs or locating inside effectively to RHB, while the cutter and curve were getting slapped effectively when spotted low. I’m still a fan and see him as a sneaky play moving forward, especially with the Marlins next, but we should be careful against quality offenses, like the Cubs for two after that.
Game of the Day
Mick Abel vs. Davis Martin – I’m stoked to see the Twins finally bring Abel into the rotation after his acquisition at the deadline + I hope Martin can prove himself as a proper Toby.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
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