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The Philadelphia Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl champions, so it’s no surprise they’re my NFL Projection Model’s favorite to conquer the NFC again this year, with a 15.5 percent chance at going back-to-back. That said, the competition is close, as my model projects the NFC to be very strong this year, from top to … almost the bottom (sorry in advance, Giants and Saints fans).
The Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all teams my model gives at least an 8 percent chance to win the NFC this season, and the 2024 NFC runners-up, the Washington Commanders, barely missed out on qualifying for that arbitrary point at 7.8 percent. Each of those teams must prove they can rise to the Eagles’ level, but the real takeaway is that the NFC isn’t much like the AFC. While the AFC is top-heavy with its Big Three, the NFC is brimming with contenders.
(If you want a quick refresher on how my model works, scroll to the bottom of the story.)
NFC East
Will we see the first back-to-back NFC East champion since 2004? Probably. The defending champs need to replace some of the talent lost from last year’s elite unit, but outside of that, things are looking sunny in Philadelphia. The Eagles have a 68.8 percent chance to win the East, the second-best odds of any projected division winner, trailing only the Buffalo Bills (73.6 percent).
So, who is No. 2 in the East? It’s still the Commanders, but the Dallas Cowboys are closer than some would believe. Of course, that assumes team owner Jerry Jones can get a deal done with star pass rusher Micah Parsons, but if that happens, the Cowboys will be in the hunt for a wild-card spot.
The other reason the Cowboys might be closer to Washington is that while most expect Commanders QB Jayden Daniels to improve on an outstanding rookie season, I have my doubts. I certainly believe Daniels is good, but he had a lot of high-leverage plays break his way last season. Is that luck repeatable? Unlikely. He will need to be more efficient in other areas to improve.
Lastly, the Giants round out the division. Though we likely won’t see him to start the season, Jaxson Dart is the future at quarterback, and while throwing to star receiver Malik Nabers should make his life easier, I don’t have high hopes for this offense, no matter who is playing QB. However, I do think the defense, especially the line, could make offenses dread facing the Giants this season. Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and first-round pick Abdul Carter is about as good as it gets rushing the passer.
NFC North
This is the best division in football, and I’m not willing to argue that. This division saw three teams win 11 games last season, and the bottom-dweller Chicago Bears hired Ben Johnson, the hottest name in the coaching carousel the past two cycles. Will three teams win double-digit games again? No, but the worst team won’t win only five games, either.
The Lions are back-to-back NFC North champions for the first time and are favored to make it three in a row. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions. Losing an offensive mind like Johnson, as well as defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, will sting. How will QB Jared Goff transition to new offensive coordinator John Morton’s way of doing things? We’ll soon see, but one thing that will help mitigate some of the losses for the Lions is getting a healthy Aidan Hutchinson. The star pass rusher was wreaking havoc on the NFL last season before fracturing his tibia and fibula in Week 6.
The Packers, Minnesota Vikings and Bears round out the rest of the division, with the Packers getting the nod because of certainty at quarterback. The Packers are much closer to the Lions than the Vikings despite what last year’s records indicate (Minnesota, 14-3; Green Bay 11-6), as the Vikings turn the keys over to unproven QB J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy is in a favorable situation, but it’s tough to know how good he can be until we see him play.
J.J. McCarthy
Vikings
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Chicago is where things get interesting in the North. The Bears have been an offseason hype team in recent seasons, but this year, there is an actual reason to hop on the bandwagon. Johnson should make life much easier for QB Caleb Williams, as should the offseason investments made on the offensive line. But is the roster ready to compete for a playoff spot when Chicago is in such a strong division? My model isn’t ready to go there yet.
NFC South
Tampa Bay’s streak of four straight division titles is likely to reach five, and it’s not because my model sees the Buccaneers as world-beaters, but rather because the rest of the division is either unproven or just plain bad. The Bucs offense has to prove it can function at a high rate without esteemed offensive coordinator Liam Coen (now in Jacksonville), so it won’t be an easy road, but Tampa Bay sure feels like a lock to win the South. My model puts the odds of doing so at 64.2 percent.
The model has the Atlanta Falcons as the second-best team in the division, and, admittedly, I don’t love it. QB Michael Penix Jr. is a bit of an unknown, and the defense still has a ways to go despite the Falcons’ huge investments in the pass rush during the draft. Luckily for them, the Carolina Panthers have even further to go on defense, which dampens the exciting second half of the season produced by QB Bryce Young and the offense. As for the New Orleans Saints, my model doesn’t care if rookie Tyler Shough or Spencer Rattler wins the starting QB job; they’re going to be a contender for the No. 1 pick in the draft no matter the outcome.
NFC West
While the NFC North is the best division in football, according to my model, the West should be the most exciting. Only two wins separate the top from the bottom this year, and Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s lingering back injury brings even more uncertainty.
Right now, my numbers have the 49ers as the favorite — they’re dealing with their own injury issues right now — and that’s mostly driven by their schedule being much easier than the Rams’. I actually would favor the Rams over the 49ers on a neutral field, but the difference in schedules gives San Francisco the advantage.
Most divisions have a team or two you don’t really need to pay attention to, but that’s not the case in the West. The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks have great chances to deliver winning records this season. Both teams have at least a 14 percent chance to win the division and a 37 percent chance to make the playoffs. If the injury bug becomes too much for the 49ers and/or Rams to overcome — and that’s happened before — these two will be right there to take advantage.
How Mock’s NFL Projection Model works
My NFL Projection Model takes play-by-play data and creates offensive and defensive projections for each team. Using these projections, we can simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win, how often that team makes the playoffs, and the likelihood of winning the division and Super Bowl.
(Photo: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
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