Only one team can win the NBA championship, but plenty of organizations can still feel good about themselves even while falling short. It all comes down to preseason expectations, which are being set in the dead of the offseason.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were a fun story last year as they rose from 48 to 64 wins under first-year head coach Kenny Atkinson. The pressure is on Cleveland this year to take another step forward in the East, especially during a down year for the conference. The New York Knicks will feel a similar pressure as they enter year two with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges around Jalen Brunson. Out West, every team not named the Thunder needs to prove it can measure up to the reigning champs. The conference is loaded with potential contenders, but OKC still feels a cut above the pack.
Here are seven teams with the most to prove entering 2025-26 NBA season.
Need to prove they can be the kings of the East in a down year
The Knicks didn’t trade for OG Anunoby, Towns, and Bridges to make the conference finals. With Jalen Brunson on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA, now is the time for New York to make the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999, and maybe even win their first championship since 1973. The Knicks are essentially running it back next year with a couple new additions for the bench: Guerschon Yabusele comes over from Philly to provide more wing depth, and Jordan Clarkson arrives from Utah to add microwave scoring. The biggest change comes at head coach, where Tom Thibodeau was fired and replaced with Mike Brown. The Knicks should be more titled towards offense under Brown, but the regular season offense wasn’t the problem last year: New York finished No. 5 by scoring 117.3 points per 100 possessions during the 82-game slate, but could only muster a 112.7 offensive rating in the playoffs.
The biggest issue with the Knicks roster to this point is that Brunson and Towns are both terrible defenders who will be hunted relentlessly in big moments. The offense has be dynamic to overcome that, and it felt like under Thibodeau it would stagnate into Brunson hero ball at every late game opportunity. Can the Knicks defense stay afloat after finishing No. 13 last year while the offense gets better when it matters? Would a full season of Mitchell Robinson help unlock enough defensive improvement to get this team over the hump? By firing Thibs, the Knicks made it clear a conference finals run isn’t good enough. With Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton out for the year, it feels like this is the Knicks’ last chance to breakthrough with this core before it’s time for another trade.
Need to prove they can make the NBA Finals without LeBron James
The Cavs were the darlings of last season as Kenny Atkinson took them from good to great in his first season as head coach. Cleveland routed the Miami Heat in the first-round and felt poised for a Finals run until injuries, cold shooting, and Tyrese Haliburton’s heroics tanked them vs. the Pacers in round two. The Cavs aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year: the expectation will be another 60+ win season, the top seed in the East, and a better playoff run this time around.
It’s hard to believe Donovan Mitchell is entering his fourth year in Cleveland, but there are still questions about his backcourt fit with Darius Garland. Garland’s last two playoff runs have been ruined by injury, yet no one doubts he’s an elite player when healthy as one of the league’s shiftiest handlers and best pull-up shooters. There will always be skepticism that two guards are small as Mitchell and Garland can win in the playoffs, which is why Cleveland is subtly reorienting around Evan Mobley right now. Mobley was Second-Team All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year last season in his fourth year. He still has plenty of room to grow offensively, and should only keep getting better and better as he gains strength and learns how to play with force. Add in the steady production of big man Jarrett Allen, and the Cavs need to see a signature playoff run from the ‘core four’ this year. If not, it’s easy to imagine rumors of LeBron James potentially joining Cleveland a year from now in what might be the final season of his career.
Need to prove this was worth it.
The Raptors were in a premium position to tear down the roster a few years ago and rebuild through the draft. Instead, Toronto’s front office got players instead of draft picks back for OG Anunoby, and parlayed some picks from the Pascal Siakam trade for Brandon Ingram. The Raptors are enormously expensive for a team projected to win 37.5 games by Vegas, and they have four starters all locked in for at least three more years in Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and Ingram. For any of this to be worth it, the Raptors at least have to win 45 games and give their fans something to cheer about. I loved their first-round pick Collin Murray-Boyles, but he’s an odd fit on a team that already doesn’t have much shooting. Barnes really needs to establish himself as a No. 1 option this year, and Ingram needs to turn some mid-range shots into threes. I’m not holding my breath on either of those. The Raptors feel like they are all-in on a team with a hard ceiling of a first-round exit. I’m not a championship-or-bust kind of guy, but this team has to at least get a protected top-6 playoff seed in the East to reward the front office’s belief in them.
Need to prove they can build a dynasty in the parity era
The Thunder pulled off one of the greatest rebuilds in NBA history by winning the 2025 championship. The scary thing for their competitors is that OKC is poised to keep getting better and better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is firmly in his prime at age-27 and should be the best guard in the NBA going forward. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are already incredible, and will only continue to grow in the coming years. Holmgren in particular has plenty of unfulfilled offensive potential while being one of the best rim protectors alive. Everyone knows the Thunder are flush with future picks, too, which keep the young talent coming for the rest of the 2020s. Yes, the Thunder will get expensive eventually, which will probably force them to lose pieces, but that’s not happening yet. After seven unique champions over the last seven years, the trick for the Thunder will be repeating in the NBA’s parity era. OKC’s regular season was historic, but they were far less convincing during the playoffs. One championship is cool, but the Thunder are set up to win a whole lot more than that. It will be so fun to see them try. This franchise is the measuring stick, and everyone else is trying to size them up.
Need to prove their two stars can make each other better
The Magic went .500 last year despite significant injuries to their three best players and the one of the worst shooting teams of all-time adjusted for era. This year, the expectation will be for the Magic to establish themselves as a long-term Eastern Conference contender after swinging a bold trade for the exact piece they were missing. Desmond Bane arrives in Orlando as one of the best shooters in the NBA, and he won’t compromise the Magic’s elite defense while fixing their spacing woes. Bane is one of the best players in the league who has never been named an All-Star, but he won’t have to do the heavy lifting in Orlando. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are one of the most young duos in the NBA, but the duo still hasn’t figured out how to make each other better. Orlando’s net-rating is nearly six points better when only Wagner is on the court and Banchero is resting, and the numbers are pretty ugly when it’s just Paolo in the game. I am willing to chalk this up to the horrible spacing around the two stars last year, but that won’t be an excuse this season with Bane around. Banchero needs to be a more efficient scorer, and Wagner could really use a better outside shooting season after two straight years below 30 percent from three. The Magic are still going to win with defense, but the offense needs to find some answers that eluded them last year. If Paolo and Franz can figure it out, it’s not crazy to think the Magic can make the Finals in a down year for the East. Their teammates hitting a few more open jumpers would be a good start.
Need to prove they’re serious Western Conference contenders.
The Rockets finished as the No. 2 seed in the West last year with one of the youngest teams in the league. They started their offseason by trading their their most harmful player (Jalen Green) in a package for Kevin Durant. That’s the start of the sales pitch for Houston as the biggest threat to the Thunder in the Western Conference this year. Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun should steadily improve with age, and Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, and Tari Eason should, too. Durant will immediately be the best shooter on the team, and help open up room for Sengun’s post touches and Thompson’s drives to the rim. The defense will be elite again, and if Reed Sheppard can provide the shooting and high-IQ play that made him look special in the 2024 draft, Houston could have enough perimeter offense to give them a puncher’s chance against the league’s best. At the same time, Houston’s 52 wins as the No. 2 seed weren’t that much more than the Grizzlies’ 48 wins as the No. 8 seed, so there’s not really that much of a gap between them and their rivals. Durant still has some good ball left in him at 37 years old, and it feels like he can be purely additive for the mix in Houston without being expected to carry a big load. Another first-round exit would be a real disappointment. This team should be built to compete deep into the spring.
Need to prove they can actually break through.
The Timberwolves reaching the Western Conference Finals in consecutive years is kind of amazing if you’re an NBA fan of a certain age. It wasn’t all that long ago the Wolves were enduring a 13-year playoff drought. Since Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert came to town, Minnesota is one of the toughest teams in the league with Edwards’ shot-making and a ferocious defense leading the way. I’m not ready to say the West is passing Minnesota by, but they did lose a key rotation piece in Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency. I like Terrence Shannon Jr. and Rob Dillingham enough as second-year players to think they can make-up for NAW’s departure, but in a Western Conference that feels even tougher this year, it’s possible the Wolves got a little worse over the summer. Minnesota will be staring up at the Thunder until further notice, but teams that are consistently very good year-over-year put themselves in position to get lucky if they catch a few breaks. The Wolves aren’t exactly all-in on this year, but they are firmly in their window of possible championship contention. The only thing more amazing than the Wolves turnaround would be an actual breakthrough in the West.
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