Every August, Alamo Drafthouse prepares for a late-summer slowdown.
“We joke that weekday business gets soft because parents have to think about buying their kids a new backpack,” says the theater chain’s chief revenue officer, Mike Sherrill.
Studios must have the same thought because the calendar from August through early October is always sparse, at least compared with the glut of new offerings in June and July.
“There’s not a gigantic tentpole in the next six weeks,” Sherrill says. “But it’s our job to remind folks that just because ‘Avatar 3’ doesn’t come out until December doesn’t mean there aren’t great films before then.”
On paper, business over the next few weeks looks bleak. But before anyone writes them off, it’s worth remembering this year has been defined by upended box office norms. Few predicted that DC’s “Superman” ($595 million) would outgross Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($468 million) or that “Jurassic World Rebirth” ($828 million) would eclipse them both. Meanwhile Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Zach Cregger’s “Weapons,” two original R-rated horror films, were unexpected smashes, signaling that audiences will take chances on new ideas from exciting directors. Could conventional wisdom about the dog days of summer be wrong, too?
The routinely quiet period has fielded sleeper hits before; “Weapons” ($148 million to date) is shaping up to be this August’s savior. However, the movie might not have much help in boosting the box office from the month’s remaining releases, Ethan Coen’s caper “Honey Don’t!,” starring Margaret Qualley as a small-town detective; Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller “Caught Stealing” with Austin Butler and Zoe Kravitz; and the Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Coleman-led satire “The Roses.”
“Nobody expects anything from the last two weeks of August,” says Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer at Texas-based circuit Flix Brewhouse.
So the supernatural “The Conjuring: Last Rites,” the fifth installment in the long-running series, could benefit from pent-up demand. That film will debut on Sept. 5 alongside “Hamilton,” a taping of the Broadway smash that’s been available to watch on Disney+ since 2020. Then Hollywood is hoping for strength in numbers. Nine movies will open before September ends, including Lionsgate’s dystopian Stephen King adaptation “The Long Walk,” Sony’s anime “Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle,” “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale,” the Jordan Peele-produced sports thriller “Him” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s $140 million-budgeted “One Battle After Another,” starring Leonardo DiCaprio.
“Nothing really looks like it’ll be big, but volume will counteract that,” Randleman says.
Disney’s sci-fi sequel “Tron: Ares” opens on Oct. 10 and seems to be the industry’s next best hope for a four-quadrant blockbuster. But attendance won’t pick up in earnest until the video game adaptation “Mortal Kombat II,” Elle Fanning-led extraterrestrial adventure “Predator: Badlands,” heist thriller “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t,” “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2” begin to make their way to theaters in late October and November.
In the years directly following COVID, such a barren stretch would plunge the business into despair. Now, though, analysts aren’t worried about cinema operators suffering from the post-popcorn season blues.
“We’re past the pandemic, and theater owners have done well enough with their balance sheets,” says Eric Wold, a Texas Capital Securities analyst. “They can weather a short-term lull.”
After a brutally slow winter (misfires included “Snow White” and Robert de Niro’s “The Alto Knights”) and a surprisingly robust spring (thanks to “Sinners” and “A Minecraft Movie”), experts describe the all-important summer stretch as steady. Revenues will fall short of the expected $4 billion milestone, and Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch” has been the lone release to reach $1 billion. But there were other bright spots, such as “F1: The Movie” ($590 million) and “How to Train Your Dragon” ($625 million).
“Compared to the dire black-cloud sense that people had earlier this year, summer was a reminder that as long as studios make good versions of the right film, audiences will go to see it,” says Lionsgate studio chief Adam Fogelson.
At this point, the overall box office is 6.4% ahead of 2024 but 23% behind 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, according to Comscore. Recent yearly gains are mostly attributed to increasing ticket prices and the popularity of premium large formats rather than rising attendance levels.
As fewer people go to the movies, chains like AMC Theatres are experimenting with ways to lift revenue. The world’s largest circuit announced 50% off tickets on Wednesdays in addition to Tuesdays. AMC has also been quietly raising prices by $1 to $1.50 in certain locations on other days. As for the discounts, the verdict is hazy on whether they’ll entice new patrons.
“Are you adding customers who wouldn’t have gone at all?” Wold asks. “Or are you shifting someone from opening weekend to a Wednesday because it’s cheaper?”
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