Good morning,
That was quite a turn of events.
You can read in my game story (here) about the Dodgers completing a sweep of the Padres with a 5-4 victory yesterday at Dodger Stadium.
And while the game story makes the point that there are six weeks remaining in the regular season, it does feel pretty significant that the Padres let go of first place in the National League West.
It was pretty on-brand for this rivalry for the Dodgers to squash the Padres just when things had turned.
Or do you not remember 2020? 2021? 2024?
- In August 2020, the Padres got to within 1½ games of the Dodgers in mid-September by winning the opener of a three-game series at Petco Park before losing the next two games and finishing the season six games back.
- The Padres won seven of the first 10 games between the two teams in 2021, including a three-game sweep at Petco Park in June and moved to within 2½ games of the Dodgers on the last day of that month. The Dodgers won the final nine games in that season series while the Padres collapsed.
- In ‘24, the Padres won eight of the 13 meetings in the regular season and were up 2-1 in the NL Division Series. Then the Dodgers shut them out the next two games and went on to win the World Series.
None of that means the Padres can’t make up the three games they lost to the Dodgers this weekend and win the NL West this season. (And they would have to make up all three games and finish ahead of the Dodgers, because the Dodgers have clinched the season series and would, thus, win a tiebreaker.)
But doing that is going to require better than what the Padres did this weekend.
And it appears the Dodgers might be as fine as they thought they would be when they got healthy and Mookie Betts started playing like Mookie Betts.
The former MVP (and three-time MVP runner-up) is having the worst season of his career by far. But he hit the game-winning home run in the eighth inning off Robert Suarez yesterday and is batting .341 with a .923 OPS over his past 11 games.
And that isn’t even close to the scariest part when considering what might resume being a great divide between the Padres and Dodgers the rest of the regular season (and possibly in the postseason).
The spotlight of concern this weekend shined on the starting pitching.
Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow allowed the Padres three runs over 17 innings. All three spent significant time on the injured list this season, but they look now like a trio that could follow Yoshinobu Yamamoto and make the Dodgers’ rotation deeper than it probably needs to be in the postseason.
The Padres were going to use the three starting pitchers that at the beginning of the season they envisioned carrying them into and through the postseason.
But knee inflammation landed Michael King on the injured list Thursday, the day before his scheduled start against the Dodgers. The Padres got through Friday’s 3-2 loss with four relief pitchers and a starter (Randy Vásquez) they recalled to work the middle innings.
Dylan Cease’s paradoxical season continued Saturday, as he followed what had been two promising starts by walking six batters and allowing five runs (three earned) in 3⅓ innings in Saturday’s 6-0 loss.
And on Sunday, Yu Darvish allowed four runs in the first inning before making it through the next three innings without further damage and passing the game to the bullpen. Darvish, who turned 39 on Saturday, is the pitcher the Padres patiently waited to debut after elbow issues resurfaced in spring training so he could be strong at the end of the season. It was, in part, his recent success against the Dodgers that the Padres looked forward to.
Is it really that bad?
We will have to see what happens when King comes back, evidently by the end of the month. And we will have to see how the Padres and Dodgers (and the other playoff teams) are playing at the end of September.
The Padres went 5-14 against the Dodgers in 2022 and beat them in the NL Division series in October.
They went 8-5 against the Dodgers in 2024, and the result in the NL Division Series was again the opposite of the season series.
The important thing tend to be how teams are playing going into October. And it seems highly likely the Padres will be playing in October.
They hold the second NL’s second wild-card spot.
FanGraphs assesses the Padres chances of making the postseason at 97.1%.
Also according to FanGraphs, the Padres’ remaining schedule is second-easiest in the major leagues. Only the Dodgers’ is easier.
Tom Krasovic wrote a column (here) from yesterday’s game, and he concluded with the theory that maybe the Padres are better off as the underdog.
Leaving Laureano
Ramón Laureano was 2-for-3 with a double and a home run yesterday.
He has three home runs in the past four games, and his nine extra-base hits in 15 games with the Padres are most on the team in that span (since Aug. 1).
He has done most of his damage out of the No.7 spot and has hit higher than sixth just once.
“We’ve gotten a lot of production at the bottom of our lineup,” manager Mike Shildt said. “There for a while, I was getting a lot of questions about not getting production at the bottom of the lineup. Now we’re getting production at the bottom of the lineup. … You think about moving him up. But I do trust the guys that are at the top of our lineup as well. They’re very capable. And I would never take anything off the table. But (Laureano) is in a good spot, and we need the guys at the top to continue to do what they’re capable of doing.”
The bottom three spots in the order produced four hits and a walk in 11 plate appearances yesterday. The bottom third is batting .273 with a .370 on-base percentage since Aug. 1, mostly with yesterday’s Laureano-Jake Cronenworth-Freddy Fermin combination.
The 7-8-9 spots were batting a collective .214 with a .287 on-base percentage through the end of July.
Snap, crackle …
It could be argued the difference in the Padres’ one-run losses in the series opener and series finale against the Dodgers were that one team hits home runs and the other team hardly does.
The Dodgers got all of their runs from three homers yesterday while the Padres hit a solo homer. And though both teams hit solo homers on Friday, the Dodgers’ solo homer came in the seventh inning and served as the deciding run.
“We played two really good games — the first one and the last one — and just couldn’t get that one big hit,” Xander Bogaerts said. “It seems like all the big hits, they got them. It feels like we hit better than them, hits wise. But they hit with a lot more pop, a lot more balls out. They got the RBIs.”
For the season, the Dodgers’ 185 home runs are second most in the major leagues. The Padres’ 105 homers are second fewest. The Padres are getting the lowest percentage (29.7) of their runs from homers. The Dodgers are getting the fourth-highest percentage (45.8) of their runs from homers.
The Padres outhit the Dodgers 10-6 yesterday and 6-5 on Saturday. Both teams has four hits Friday. The Padres were 3-for-20 with runners in scoring position in the series. The Dodgers were 3 for-13.
Tatis talk
The Padres anticipated a good portion of their home run production would come from Fernando Tatis Jr.
Yesterday, Tatis was 1-for-5 with a double, running his streak without a home run to 100 plate appearances. That is one plate appearance shy of his career high, set earlier this season.
I wrote last week (here) about the effect inside pitches might be having on Tatis. And I wrote a couple weeks ago (here) about the version of Tatis who is helping the Padres win sans significant slug.
His .416 on-base percentage ranks second in the NL since June 29, a span of 41 games. He has two home runs in that span, and his .413 slugging percentage ranks 34th out of 69 qualifying NL hitters.
Tatis’ 24% chase rate this season is the lowest of his career. His 52% hard-hit rate is third lowest. His 22% fly ball rate is the lowest.
Tatis, whose 17 homers in 462 at-bats this season are the same number he had in 224 at-bats in 2020, was asked again yesterday about there being a tradeoff between his increased plate discipline and diminished slug.
“No, I’m just not putting the ball in the air,” he said. “The power function goes. I’m just trying to be a good hitter, get on base. Yeah, I’m not hitting homers.”
Machad0-fer
The only time Manny Machado came close to reaching base yesterday, home plate umpire Jeremie Rehak’s inconsistent strike zone did not allow it.
In the seventh inning, a pitch that should have been ball four was called strike one. (It was one of several missed calls by Rehak that affected both teams.)
Machado, who had tossed his bat and begun taking off his batting gloves as he walked toward first base, hit a fly ball to left field two pitches later.
That made him 0-for-4 (and 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position) on the day. His final at-bat, which came with two outs in the ninth inning, resulted in his second strikeout of the day.
Machado has one hit in his past 12 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and the Padres’ season RBI leader has driven in one run in 15 games this month.
Machado was walking out of the clubhouse as reporters entered after the game yesterday, and he said he would not talk until today.
“The confidence in this team is high for a lot of reasons, and a big part of that reason is Manny Machado,” Shildt said. “We can blink, and I’m pretty confident within a week or so, we’ll be talking and be like, ‘Man, Manny has got eight RBIs in the last five days,’ So we’re not concerned about it.”
Suarez’s time
Suarez was warmed up and ready to enter the game to face Betts if the Dodgers’ No.2 hitter came up in the bottom of the seventh.
That was not necessary, as Adrian Morejón retired Shohei Ohtani on a fly ball for the final out in the seventh.
But since he was already hot, Suarez entered the game to start the bottom of the eighth. It was the first time he began the eighth inning this season.
Betts homered before Suarez retired the next three batters.
“Treating it like a playoff game, that’s your closer,” Shildt said. “You would pitch him and be ready to have him go pitch in the eighth. Best part of the order.”
Tidbits
- Jeff Sanders wrote in his notebook (here) from yesterday about Jackson Merrill’s ankle injury, the attention on Yuki Matsui this series and the interesting delivery Padres starter Nestor Cortes sometimes employs.
- Cortes starts today against the Giants with Nick Pivetta going tomorrow and Cease on Thursday. The Padres listed Wednesday’s starter as “TBD.” Since JP Sears did not make his scheduled start for Triple-A El Paso yesterday, it seems likely the left-hander will be at Petco Park on Wednesday.
- Luis Arraez was 3-for-5 with two doubles yesterday. It was his 15th game with at least three hits this season, tied for most in the major leagues. Arraez was 4-for-8 with three doubles in the final two games of the series.
- Morejón has faced the top three batters in a lineup 92 times this season. That is seven more times than Jason Adam, who ranks second on the team. Adam finished off yesterday’s fifth inning by striking out Ohtani and getting Betts on a fly ball. Opposing 1-2-3 hitters have made 66 plate appearances against Suarez.
- The Padres’ seven extra-base hits yesterday were tied for their second most in a game this season.
- Cronenworth’s eight-pitch walk leading off the third inning yesterday was his team-leading 24th plate appearance of at least eight pitches.
- The Padres fell to 25-18 in one-run games, seventh best in MLB.
All right, that’s it for me.
Talk to you tomorrow.
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