The first-place Toronto Blue Jays are poised to get a compelling boost to the rotation, and they may get it very soon — all in the form of a former American League Cy Young winner.
Leading up to last month’s July 31 trade deadline, the Jays swung a surprise deal with the Cleveland Guardians for veteran right-handed starter Shane Bieber. The deal was a surprise because Bieber was at the time — and still is — recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in April 2024 after just a pair of starts. He hasn’t taken a big-league mound since. As well, the Jays acquired the 30-year-old Bieber, knowing his minor-league rehab assignment, which began in late May, had already been paused after only one start because of discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow. That pushed back his original late-June timeline for a return to the major-league rotation. Bieber wasn’t able to resume his work in the minors until the very end of May, and a more incremental path was charted for him.
Despite such very real concerns, the Jays took a swing on Bieber and the balance of his $14 million salary for 2025 (plus a $16 million player option and $4 million buyout for 2026). Very soon, it seems, we’re about to find out what Bieber can provide the Jays down the stretch:
That Marlins series gets underway in Miami on Friday, Aug. 22. And now for the moving pictures from that most recent start of note:
Overall, Bieber, on his rehab assignment, has made seven starts at four different minor-league runs. In 29 combined rehab innings, he’s pitched to a 1.86 ERA with 37 strikeouts against just three walks. He’s struck out a highly impressive 34.6% of opposing batters along the way.
What’s also encouraging is that Bieber thus far has recouped a bit of fastball velocity. He’s had to adapt to velocity loss in recent years and done so quite successfully, but a little bit of extra oomph, even for a pitcher like Bieber who isn’t velocity-reliant, is always welcome. Here are the trends of note:
|
Year |
Bieber’s average fastball velocity |
|
2025* |
92.8 mph |
|
2024** |
92.0 mph |
|
2023 |
91.3 mph |
|
2022 |
91.3 mph |
|
2021 |
92.7 mph |
*Across seven minor-league rehab starts; **Across two starts
If he can maintain that bump, Bieber will undoubtedly benefit. He’s used to thriving, at least when healthy, despite below-average radar-gun readings, but as noted, every little bit of four-seamer velo helps the cause. That’s especially the case given that Bieber throws his fastball a plurality of the time.
So once he’s rostered in Toronto — presumably very soon — how will manager John Schneider fit the 2020 AL Cy Young winner into an already full rotation? José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, and Max Scherzer presumably aren’t going anywhere, so it seems likely that either Chris Bassitt or Eric Lauer, the lone lefty in the rotation, will be bumped to the bullpen. Lauer has been the more effective of the two, so perhaps Bassitt’s spot is most in jeopardy. Another option would be to go with a six-man rotation. There’s some theoretical wisdom in that, given that Bieber is, again, coming off a major injury and major surgery. As managerial problems go, “too many starting pitchers” isn’t a bad one.
As for the Jays team Bieber will soon join, they’re presently on pace for 95 wins, and they’re atop the AL East standings by five games over the Red Sox. Toronto also narrowly leads the chase for the top seed in the AL playoff bracket over the Tigers.
