(Bloomberg) — A big week is coming up for the Federal Reserve and central bank enthusiasts.
The Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chair Jerome Powell in remarks on Friday is expected to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework — the strategy it’ll use to achieve its inflation and employment goals.
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Powell may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its September policy meeting. Officials have left interest rates on hold so far this year as they wait to see how the Trump administration’s tariffs impact the economy.
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% goal and signs of a slowdown in the labor market, policymakers have become divided on when to resume rate cuts. Powell’s speech could give Fed watchers a fresh update on how much support there is to lower rates in September — at a time the Trump administration is piling on the pressure to start easing.
Data over the past week likely did little to shift opinions on inflation and the economy. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and fuel, rose in July by the most since the start of the year. Yet the cost of tariff-exposed goods didn’t rise as much as feared.
A separate report on wholesale inflation suggested price pressures on companies are mounting, however. And a fresh read on retail sales showed American consumers flexed a bit more muscle over the past two months, though a decline in sentiment pointed to anxiety about inflation and the job market.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the opportunity to settle the speculation with his speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium (Friday). Last year, he used the gathering of central bankers to telegraph that the Fed was ready to cut rates. But the circumstances are different, and we don’t think he’ll be as frank this year.”
— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here
The global nature of the Jackson Hole conference also offers an opportunity for Powell’s peers to express their support amid persistent criticism from President Donald Trump. Central bank independence is likely to be a topic on the sidelines of the confab.
A handful of economists will present new research papers during the meeting, and there’s usually a panel featuring heads of some of the world’s biggest central banks.
Elsewhere, central bankers in New Zealand are projected to cut rates in a bid to shore up the labor market. Inflation and retail sales data take top billing in the UK, while purchasing managers indexes for economies across the world will help shed light on the impact of US tariffs.
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.
US and Canada
The US economic calendar lightens up in the coming week and will include several reports on the housing market. Cheaper borrowing costs would stoke demand in a residential real estate sector that’s been bogged down by low affordability.
On Tuesday, economists expect government figures to show a decline in US housing starts. National Association of Realtors data out Thursday are projected to show sales of previously owned homes hovering near a 15-year low.
Turning north, Statistics Canada will release inflation data for July, the first of two such reports before the Bank of Canada’s September rate decision.
The central bank is closely watching core measures and the share of components in the consumer price index basket that are rising, both of which accelerated in the previous month’s data. Signs of cooling would open the door to a rate cut.
Advance retail sales data for July will shed light on Canadian consumer health after June’s preliminary estimate surprisingly pointed to the strongest spending this year.
Asia
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the focus on Wednesday, when authorities are expected to resume a monetary easing cycle. Economists forecast the RBNZ will trim its benchmark rate by a quarter-point, to 3%, as officials look to keep a sagging labor market from impeding growth.
Bank Indonesia is seen keeping its policy settings unchanged the same day. China will likely hold its 1- and 5-year loan prime rates steady.
Asia sees a slew of indicators that are expected to underscore the impact of US trade policies on the region’s manufacturers. South Korea publishes early trade statistics for August, while Japan, Singapore, New Zealand and Malaysia all release reports for July. Thursday brings manufacturing PMI data for Japan, Australia and India.
Thailand’s economic growth likely slowed a tad in the second quarter, data on Monday are expected to show, validating the Bank of Thailand’s recent move to to cut its benchmark rate.
Japan’s national CPI data, scheduled for release on Friday, are forecast to show consumer inflation stayed well above the Bank of Japan’s target in July, backing the case for the BOJ to remain on the path toward gradual rate hikes.
Hong Kong and Malaysia also release inflation figures in the coming week. Australia issues consumer confidence on Tuesday.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
July inflation from the UK is likely to be the week’s most-watched release, with the Bank of England seeing price gains creeping up to a 4% peak in September. Bloomberg Economics is looking for a slight uptick on the month, to 3.7% from 3.6%. Analysts at Bank of America see services inflation edging up.
The UK also reports retail sales at the end of the week, though before that it will join the region’s other major economies in getting an update on private-sector activity from S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Like the euro zone, the UK’s reading has been a point or two above the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. Analysts will look at how companies in Europe are reacting to the tariff deal between Brussels and Washington after investor confidence sank in Germany.
Swiss exports, due on Thursday, will shed light on that country’s trade dealings with the US, which ended up hitting Switzerland with the highest tariffs among developed countries.
Remarks on Wednesday in Geneva from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde may offer more pointers on the continent’s outlook. Traders have pared bets on further ECB interest-rate cuts but will have an eye on negotiated-wage data due Friday to make sure moderation is continuing there.
Wednesday sees policymakers convene at Sweden’s Riksbank. They’re likely to keep the benchmark rate at 2%, looking past a temporary summer flare-up in inflation.
Beyond Europe, South Africa publishes inflation data on Wednesday, with price growth seen accelerating to 3.5% in July from 3%. Israel will set borrowing costs the same day, with analysts looking for rates to be held steady for a 13th consecutive meeting. Rwanda and Botswana set rate policy on Thursday.
Latin America
Chile kicks off the week with its second-quarter output report, central bank survey of traders, and quarterly current account data.
Growth may undershoot central bank forecasts, though the consensus calls for a second-half rebound supported by domestic demand, slowing inflation, and easing financial conditions.
Brazil’s central bank on Monday posts its usual weekly Focus market readout along with its June economic activity report. May’s month-on-month dip aside, indicators such as the output gap suggest that Latin America’s No. 1 economy is still running hot.
Argentina on Wednesday delivers June GDP-proxy data on the heels of a disappointing -0.1% month-on-month reading in May. Economists surveyed by the central bank forecast growth of 5% in 2025.
Closing out the week, Mexico publishes June economic activity data and its final output figures for the three months through June, likely coming in quite close to flash readings of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 0.1% year-on-year reported on July 30.
Uncertainty over Trump’s trade and tariff policies, along with scaled back public investment, are expected to drag on Latin America’s No. 2 economy in the second half and into 2026.
After consumer prices slowed more than expected in July — excluding services and core readings — mid-month inflation readings on Friday may have reversed course and ticked higher.
–With assistance from Brian Fowler, Vince Golle, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Andrew Langley, Beril Akman and Jana Randow.
