It’s time for change.
One of the toughest things about doing these rankings is that every fantasy baseball league has different settings, particularly when it comes to injury. There are just too many different sets of rules a league can have to make one set of rankings that includes healthy and injured pitches make sense for everyone. Does your league have injured list slots at all? Do you have just one or two? Do you have unlimited injury slots? That changes so much about your risk tolerance generally but also about how you handle an injured starter in season.
So it’s time to take injured pitchers out of the rankings. Instead, let’s have a little table with the 15 most relevant starting pitchers, where they would rank if they were fully healthy, and what their most recent injury note has been. A table like this:
Injured starting pitchers
| Approx Rnk | Pitcher | Note |
|---|---|---|
|
10 |
Ribs/First rehab start |
|
|
20 |
Shoulder/Bullpen session |
|
|
25 |
Tibia/May return today |
|
|
30 |
Knee inflammation |
|
|
35 |
Blister/Throwing |
|
|
35 |
Shoulder/Throwing |
|
|
40 |
TJ/Back next week |
|
|
40 |
Elbow/Back next week |
|
|
45 |
Back/Back next week |
|
|
55 |
TJ/Back next week |
|
|
65 |
Lat/First rehab start |
|
|
75 |
Calf/Back next week |
|
|
85 |
Lat/Bullpen session |
|
|
90 |
TJ/Rehab start |
|
|
100 |
Finger/Back next week? |
|
|
110 |
Shoulder/About to begin rehab |
|
|
120 |
Oblique/Playing catch next week |
Now you can assess for yourself how long it’s worth holding onto these guys, or when it might be time to pounce.
In terms of notes, it’s probably a positive sign if they’ve had a rehab start. They may still need a week or two, but they’ve been deemed healthy enough to get on the mound competitively, and that means they are relatively close to returning. If they are currently shut down, or even just playing catch, the timeline back is pretty nebulous, even for the team and player involved.
Another difficulty with the rankings has been how to represent minor leaguers that are interesting. Obviously in many leagues you can benefit from stashing young players before they get to the big leagues, but there’s also a short shelf life for them. Many fantasy players have been waiting for the Pirates’ Bubba Chandler to come up forever, and it just hasn’t happened. To help with the decision on whether to stash a prospect, we’ll include the top 10 minor leaguers, with minor league Stuff+ where it’s available, and a guess at when they might be up. That list is below:
What that leaves is a ranking of 150 pitchers who are in the big leagues and in big-league rotations right now. Rotations are always a living organism, so maybe some of these guys — particularly at the bottom of the list — are on their way in or out of their current roles. But, for the most part, these are pitchers who are going to pitch this week.
That makes them a whole lot easier to rank, using our usual array of predictive metrics like projected ERA and K% (using OOPSY projections from FanGraphs, which include stuff metrics), Stuff+ and Location+, and strikeouts minus walks. And we’ll put my working document into the Google doc, where I’ll also update the minor league Stuff+ numbers this week.
Good luck down the stretch!
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There’s been a bit of a two-game stumble for Tarik Skubal, but it’s hard to get all that worked up about seven runs in just under 12 innings when it comes with 16 strikeouts against two walks. The pitch mix looks fine, the velocity is there — there aren’t any red flags. This is the best pitcher in baseball, no matter what happened in the last two outings.
There’s been a bit of a two-game stumble for Tarik Skubal, but it’s hard to get all that worked up about seven runs in just under 12 innings when it comes with 16 strikeouts against two walks. The pitch mix looks fine, the velocity is there — there aren’t any red flags. This is the best pitcher in baseball, no matter what happened in the last two outings.
There’s been a bit of a two-game stumble for Tarik Skubal, but it’s hard to get all that worked up about seven runs in just under 12 innings when it comes with 16 strikeouts against two walks. The pitch mix looks fine, the velocity is there — there aren’t any red flags. This is the best pitcher in baseball, no matter what happened in the last two outings.
Zack Wheeler has also had a little bit of a rougher ride the last four starts or so, as he’s given up 15 runs in just under 29 innings. The strikeouts and walks are fine, though, with 41 strikeouts in those innings, against only six walks. Offense peaks in July, and he’s given up a few homers. The only tiny worry is that the fastball velocity has been a little inconsistent and the cutter (probably his worst pitch) has been hit the hardest. Eh, he’s now throwing it less and will probably shrug it off.
Zack Wheeler has also had a little bit of a rougher ride the last four starts or so, as he’s given up 15 runs in just under 29 innings. The strikeouts and walks are fine, though, with 41 strikeouts in those innings, against only six walks. Offense peaks in July, and he’s given up a few homers. The only tiny worry is that the fastball velocity has been a little inconsistent and the cutter (probably his worst pitch) has been hit the hardest. Eh, he’s now throwing it less and will probably shrug it off.
Zack Wheeler has also had a little bit of a rougher ride the last four starts or so, as he’s given up 15 runs in just under 29 innings. The strikeouts and walks are fine, though, with 41 strikeouts in those innings, against only six walks. Offense peaks in July, and he’s given up a few homers. The only tiny worry is that the fastball velocity has been a little inconsistent and the cutter (probably his worst pitch) has been hit the hardest. Eh, he’s now throwing it less and will probably shrug it off.
For a dominant pitcher, Paul Skenes doesn’t have a dominant four-seam fastball. Stuff metrics don’t love it, hitters have hit it decently hard (91.9 mph, .359 slugging), and it was the pitch they got to in his bad start out last time. This is picking the nits, though. He limits damage like nobody else in the business — he has the lowest barrel rate allowed among starters with at least 350 balls in play — and has multiple dominant pitches by both stuff and command numbers, including both a splinker and a straight changeup.
For a dominant pitcher, Paul Skenes doesn’t have a dominant four-seam fastball. Stuff metrics don’t love it, hitters have hit it decently hard (91.9 mph, .359 slugging), and it was the pitch they got to in his bad start out last time. This is picking the nits, though. He limits damage like nobody else in the business — he has the lowest barrel rate allowed among starters with at least 350 balls in play — and has multiple dominant pitches by both stuff and command numbers, including both a splinker and a straight changeup.
For a dominant pitcher, Paul Skenes doesn’t have a dominant four-seam fastball. Stuff metrics don’t love it, hitters have hit it decently hard (91.9 mph, .359 slugging), and it was the pitch they got to in his bad start out last time. This is picking the nits, though. He limits damage like nobody else in the business — he has the lowest barrel rate allowed among starters with at least 350 balls in play — and has multiple dominant pitches by both stuff and command numbers, including both a splinker and a straight changeup.
Another top starter coming off one of his worst starts of the year! Gotta be related to the fact that balls fly the furthest in the July and August heat, and hitters show their best bat speeds around now in the season, as we discussed this week on the Rates & Barrels podcast with Jed Lowrie. Garrett Crochet is rocking a four-plus pitch mix now, with great stuff that isn’t declining. It’s fair to ask what will happen as he gets into uncharted territory innings-wise, but there isn’t anything under the hood that seems all that worrisome.
Another top starter coming off one of his worst starts of the year! Gotta be related to the fact that balls fly the furthest in the July and August heat, and hitters show their best bat speeds around now in the season, as we discussed this week on the Rates & Barrels podcast with Jed Lowrie. Garrett Crochet is rocking a four-plus pitch mix now, with great stuff that isn’t declining. It’s fair to ask what will happen as he gets into uncharted territory innings-wise, but there isn’t anything under the hood that seems all that worrisome.
Another top starter coming off one of his worst starts of the year! Gotta be related to the fact that balls fly the furthest in the July and August heat, and hitters show their best bat speeds around now in the season, as we discussed this week on the Rates & Barrels podcast with Jed Lowrie. Garrett Crochet is rocking a four-plus pitch mix now, with great stuff that isn’t declining. It’s fair to ask what will happen as he gets into uncharted territory innings-wise, but there isn’t anything under the hood that seems all that worrisome.
There’s that low Stuff+ number for Logan Gilbert that seems weird. He throws mid-to-high 90s with some of the best extension in the game, so his stuff (small ‘s’) just explodes on you. He’s lost a little vertical movement on his fastball since the early-season injury, and the slider has inconsistent results over the course of the season, but the results are so consistently there overall that it’s time to point to the league’s second-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in the league’s best pitching park, and say, yeah, that’s a top-five pitcher.
There’s that low Stuff+ number for Logan Gilbert that seems weird. He throws mid-to-high 90s with some of the best extension in the game, so his stuff (small ‘s’) just explodes on you. He’s lost a little vertical movement on his fastball since the early-season injury, and the slider has inconsistent results over the course of the season, but the results are so consistently there overall that it’s time to point to the league’s second-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in the league’s best pitching park, and say, yeah, that’s a top-five pitcher.
There’s that low Stuff+ number for Logan Gilbert that seems weird. He throws mid-to-high 90s with some of the best extension in the game, so his stuff (small ‘s’) just explodes on you. He’s lost a little vertical movement on his fastball since the early-season injury, and the slider has inconsistent results over the course of the season, but the results are so consistently there overall that it’s time to point to the league’s second-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in the league’s best pitching park, and say, yeah, that’s a top-five pitcher.
He just keeps on dominating. Hunter Brown is still out here throwing fastballs nearly three quarters of the time, and nobody is doing anything with them. What a difference that sinker has made in his arsenal. The even better thing is that, as he sees opponents for the second and third time this year, he still has wrinkles. He doubled the amound of curves he threw against Boston the second time he saw them, and the second time he saw the Athletics, he showed them his cutter for the first time this season. He’s got a wide arsenal, it’s just that the fastballs are so good he doesn’t usually need to go to the other options.
He just keeps on dominating. Hunter Brown is still out here throwing fastballs nearly three quarters of the time, and nobody is doing anything with them. What a difference that sinker has made in his arsenal. The even better thing is that, as he sees opponents for the second and third time this year, he still has wrinkles. He doubled the amound of curves he threw against Boston the second time he saw them, and the second time he saw the Athletics, he showed them his cutter for the first time this season. He’s got a wide arsenal, it’s just that the fastballs are so good he doesn’t usually need to go to the other options.
He just keeps on dominating. Hunter Brown is still out here throwing fastballs nearly three quarters of the time, and nobody is doing anything with them. What a difference that sinker has made in his arsenal. The even better thing is that, as he sees opponents for the second and third time this year, he still has wrinkles. He doubled the amound of curves he threw against Boston the second time he saw them, and the second time he saw the Athletics, he showed them his cutter for the first time this season. He’s got a wide arsenal, it’s just that the fastballs are so good he doesn’t usually need to go to the other options.
If there’s a type of pitcher that routinely outpaces their strikeout minus walk rate, it’s the sinkerballer. That’s why Stuff+ exists, because some pitch shapes have an effect on balls in play — and Logan Webb’s sinker and changeup obviously help him keep the ball on the ground, softly most of the time. He’s run into some ups and downs recently, maybe because his velocity is coming down about a tick off his peak, or maybe because he was throwing the slider too much. In any case, he’s the highest floor pitcher in the game, and he’s added strikeouts to the package this year.
If there’s a type of pitcher that routinely outpaces their strikeout minus walk rate, it’s the sinkerballer. That’s why Stuff+ exists, because some pitch shapes have an effect on balls in play — and Logan Webb’s sinker and changeup obviously help him keep the ball on the ground, softly most of the time. He’s run into some ups and downs recently, maybe because his velocity is coming down about a tick off his peak, or maybe because he was throwing the slider too much. In any case, he’s the highest floor pitcher in the game, and he’s added strikeouts to the package this year.
If there’s a type of pitcher that routinely outpaces their strikeout minus walk rate, it’s the sinkerballer. That’s why Stuff+ exists, because some pitch shapes have an effect on balls in play — and Logan Webb’s sinker and changeup obviously help him keep the ball on the ground, softly most of the time. He’s run into some ups and downs recently, maybe because his velocity is coming down about a tick off his peak, or maybe because he was throwing the slider too much. In any case, he’s the highest floor pitcher in the game, and he’s added strikeouts to the package this year.
Since July 1st, Max Fried has a 6.00 ERA, with a 19 percent strikeout rate and a 9 percent walk rate that seems to suggest something is really amiss. But he still has a 116 Stuff+ in that time frame, and his velocity and shapes are keeping steady. It looks like he lost command for a bit (99 Location+ over that stretch), but he’s never really struggled with that aspect of his game for a long time. The bet here is that he’s fine.
Since July 1st, Max Fried has a 6.00 ERA, with a 19 percent strikeout rate and a 9 percent walk rate that seems to suggest something is really amiss. But he still has a 116 Stuff+ in that time frame, and his velocity and shapes are keeping steady. It looks like he lost command for a bit (99 Location+ over that stretch), but he’s never really struggled with that aspect of his game for a long time. The bet here is that he’s fine.
Since July 1st, Max Fried has a 6.00 ERA, with a 19 percent strikeout rate and a 9 percent walk rate that seems to suggest something is really amiss. But he still has a 116 Stuff+ in that time frame, and his velocity and shapes are keeping steady. It looks like he lost command for a bit (99 Location+ over that stretch), but he’s never really struggled with that aspect of his game for a long time. The bet here is that he’s fine.
It’s not quite vintage Jacob deGrom. His strikeout rate this year would be his worst since 2016, when he used to throw a paltry 94-mph fastball. His fastball doesn’t have quite the same ride, his changeup has lost a couple ticks, and his curve is a little more sideways than it’s ever been. Oh, but he’s still has top-five Stuff+ among qualified starters, an ERA under three, and sparkling peripherals and projections. As a bonus, his home park has been playing extremely pitcher-friendly this year, randomly.
It’s not quite vintage Jacob deGrom. His strikeout rate this year would be his worst since 2016, when he used to throw a paltry 94-mph fastball. His fastball doesn’t have quite the same ride, his changeup has lost a couple ticks, and his curve is a little more sideways than it’s ever been. Oh, but he’s still has top-five Stuff+ among qualified starters, an ERA under three, and sparkling peripherals and projections. As a bonus, his home park has been playing extremely pitcher-friendly this year, randomly.
It’s not quite vintage Jacob deGrom. His strikeout rate this year would be his worst since 2016, when he used to throw a paltry 94-mph fastball. His fastball doesn’t have quite the same ride, his changeup has lost a couple ticks, and his curve is a little more sideways than it’s ever been. Oh, but he’s still has top-five Stuff+ among qualified starters, an ERA under three, and sparkling peripherals and projections. As a bonus, his home park has been playing extremely pitcher-friendly this year, randomly.
For a pitcher who ostensibly throws six pitches, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is secretly a two-pitch guy. His 95-mph four-seam and his 91-mph splitter are the lynchpins of the entire arsenal. Maybe that — and the meh shapes on his fastballs — is why he occasionally runs into a poor start where his opponents slug his fastball and lay off the splitter. But, for the most part, those two pitches are dominant and have fueled over 200 innings of a sub-three ERA so far, with sparkling projections. Seems like it works most nights.
For a pitcher who ostensibly throws six pitches, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is secretly a two-pitch guy. His 95-mph four-seam and his 91-mph splitter are the lynchpins of the entire arsenal. Maybe that — and the meh shapes on his fastballs — is why he occasionally runs into a poor start where his opponents slug his fastball and lay off the splitter. But, for the most part, those two pitches are dominant and have fueled over 200 innings of a sub-three ERA so far, with sparkling projections. Seems like it works most nights.
For a pitcher who ostensibly throws six pitches, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is secretly a two-pitch guy. His 95-mph four-seam and his 91-mph splitter are the lynchpins of the entire arsenal. Maybe that — and the meh shapes on his fastballs — is why he occasionally runs into a poor start where his opponents slug his fastball and lay off the splitter. But, for the most part, those two pitches are dominant and have fueled over 200 innings of a sub-three ERA so far, with sparkling projections. Seems like it works most nights.
Sinkers are always worse to opposite-handed hitters, and Cristopher Sánchez is a lefty throwing sinkers to righties over and over again … and dominating. Part of the story is that his sinker is so good against lefties (144 Stuff+) that it can be worse against righties and still good (110 Stuff+). The other part of the story is that his command of the pitch is great, and he can front door the pitch to righties and make them uncomfortable, while also dotting the occasional high sinker to stretch the strike zone on hitters. Then comes the changeup, with nearly seven inches more drop and two inches more fade than the average offering. The batter has always been out.
Sinkers are always worse to opposite-handed hitters, and Cristopher Sánchez is a lefty throwing sinkers to righties over and over again … and dominating. Part of the story is that his sinker is so good against lefties (144 Stuff+) that it can be worse against righties and still good (110 Stuff+). The other part of the story is that his command of the pitch is great, and he can front door the pitch to righties and make them uncomfortable, while also dotting the occasional high sinker to stretch the strike zone on hitters. Then comes the changeup, with nearly seven inches more drop and two inches more fade than the average offering. The batter has always been out.
Sinkers are always worse to opposite-handed hitters, and Cristopher Sánchez is a lefty throwing sinkers to righties over and over again … and dominating. Part of the story is that his sinker is so good against lefties (144 Stuff+) that it can be worse against righties and still good (110 Stuff+). The other part of the story is that his command of the pitch is great, and he can front door the pitch to righties and make them uncomfortable, while also dotting the occasional high sinker to stretch the strike zone on hitters. Then comes the changeup, with nearly seven inches more drop and two inches more fade than the average offering. The batter has always been out.
Bryan Woo’s best comp, pitch-mix wise, might be Hunter Brown. Woo also throws fastballs around three-quarters of the time, but he doesn’t quite have the wide mix of other options if the fastballs aren’t getting it done. And he’s about a tick short of really having that Brown gas. Woo’s recently tightened up his slider and has struck out 18 against one walk in his last 13 innings, and he calls Seattle home. Is it time for him to move into the top 10? If he could add one more pitch, that might seal it.
Bryan Woo’s best comp, pitch-mix wise, might be Hunter Brown. Woo also throws fastballs around three-quarters of the time, but he doesn’t quite have the wide mix of other options if the fastballs aren’t getting it done. And he’s about a tick short of really having that Brown gas. Woo’s recently tightened up his slider and has struck out 18 against one walk in his last 13 innings, and he calls Seattle home. Is it time for him to move into the top 10? If he could add one more pitch, that might seal it.
Bryan Woo’s best comp, pitch-mix wise, might be Hunter Brown. Woo also throws fastballs around three-quarters of the time, but he doesn’t quite have the wide mix of other options if the fastballs aren’t getting it done. And he’s about a tick short of really having that Brown gas. Woo’s recently tightened up his slider and has struck out 18 against one walk in his last 13 innings, and he calls Seattle home. Is it time for him to move into the top 10? If he could add one more pitch, that might seal it.
Despite better-than average walk rates and advanced location metrics, Framber Valdez has inconsistent command. When he’s locating the curveball, changeup and sinker, there’s nobody better at keeping the ball on the ground and also adding strikeouts. But every year, there’s a little stretch where he can’t put the ball where he wants to and batters start to key in on his sinker. Even then, he’s got so much sink that the floor is ridiculously high. To wit: he has a 90 Location+ in his last four outings, seems to be struggling a bit, isn’t striking a ton of guys out, and has a 4.01 ERA. He’s good even when he’s bad.
Despite better-than average walk rates and advanced location metrics, Framber Valdez has inconsistent command. When he’s locating the curveball, changeup and sinker, there’s nobody better at keeping the ball on the ground and also adding strikeouts. But every year, there’s a little stretch where he can’t put the ball where he wants to and batters start to key in on his sinker. Even then, he’s got so much sink that the floor is ridiculously high. To wit: he has a 90 Location+ in his last four outings, seems to be struggling a bit, isn’t striking a ton of guys out, and has a 4.01 ERA. He’s good even when he’s bad.
Despite better-than average walk rates and advanced location metrics, Framber Valdez has inconsistent command. When he’s locating the curveball, changeup and sinker, there’s nobody better at keeping the ball on the ground and also adding strikeouts. But every year, there’s a little stretch where he can’t put the ball where he wants to and batters start to key in on his sinker. Even then, he’s got so much sink that the floor is ridiculously high. To wit: he has a 90 Location+ in his last four outings, seems to be struggling a bit, isn’t striking a ton of guys out, and has a 4.01 ERA. He’s good even when he’s bad.
The velocity has been good for George Kirby after he missed some time with shoulder inflammation, but the shapes on his pitches have been inconsistent. His four-seam doesn’t have as much ride as it did last year, his slider movement has been oscillating start to start, his curveball is more sideways this year, and he seems to have lost the feel for his changeup and/or splitter depending on where you look. He’s still elite when it comes to comand and his peripherals look in-line with his career and with his peers in the rankings, so what are you going to do?
The velocity has been good for George Kirby after he missed some time with shoulder inflammation, but the shapes on his pitches have been inconsistent. His four-seam doesn’t have as much ride as it did last year, his slider movement has been oscillating start to start, his curveball is more sideways this year, and he seems to have lost the feel for his changeup and/or splitter depending on where you look. He’s still elite when it comes to comand and his peripherals look in-line with his career and with his peers in the rankings, so what are you going to do?
The velocity has been good for George Kirby after he missed some time with shoulder inflammation, but the shapes on his pitches have been inconsistent. His four-seam doesn’t have as much ride as it did last year, his slider movement has been oscillating start to start, his curveball is more sideways this year, and he seems to have lost the feel for his changeup and/or splitter depending on where you look. He’s still elite when it comes to comand and his peripherals look in-line with his career and with his peers in the rankings, so what are you going to do?
He’s stepped back off the splitter some because it’s not as hard as it was last year and it’s being hit a little harder, but that sinker that Joe Ryan added last year and the sweeper he’s been perfecting stepped in to provide the missing production. He’s even resurrected the curveball. His best pitch is stil his sneaky ride fastball off a low arm angle, but he’s put together a versatile mix around it and has been avoiding the homers that have plagued him in the past. Could they come back, though?
He’s stepped back off the splitter some because it’s not as hard as it was last year and it’s being hit a little harder, but that sinker that Joe Ryan added last year and the sweeper he’s been perfecting stepped in to provide the missing production. He’s even resurrected the curveball. His best pitch is stil his sneaky ride fastball off a low arm angle, but he’s put together a versatile mix around it and has been avoiding the homers that have plagued him in the past. Could they come back, though?
He’s stepped back off the splitter some because it’s not as hard as it was last year and it’s being hit a little harder, but that sinker that Joe Ryan added last year and the sweeper he’s been perfecting stepped in to provide the missing production. He’s even resurrected the curveball. His best pitch is stil his sneaky ride fastball off a low arm angle, but he’s put together a versatile mix around it and has been avoiding the homers that have plagued him in the past. Could they come back, though?
There’s a conversation to be had about whether or not sitting 99-100 mph on the fastball as a starting pitcher is sustainable, but let’s not worry about that now. Because now Hunter Greene is back, pumping hundos, dropping 90-mph sliders at the bottom of the zone, and mixing in splitters late in games to disrupt hitters plans. This is Cy Young stuff if he can ever do it for 180 innings, but at least he’s here now, and he’s beautiful.
There’s a conversation to be had about whether or not sitting 99-100 mph on the fastball as a starting pitcher is sustainable, but let’s not worry about that now. Because now Hunter Greene is back, pumping hundos, dropping 90-mph sliders at the bottom of the zone, and mixing in splitters late in games to disrupt hitters plans. This is Cy Young stuff if he can ever do it for 180 innings, but at least he’s here now, and he’s beautiful.
There’s a conversation to be had about whether or not sitting 99-100 mph on the fastball as a starting pitcher is sustainable, but let’s not worry about that now. Because now Hunter Greene is back, pumping hundos, dropping 90-mph sliders at the bottom of the zone, and mixing in splitters late in games to disrupt hitters plans. This is Cy Young stuff if he can ever do it for 180 innings, but at least he’s here now, and he’s beautiful.
Dylan Cease’s peripherals have been good all year. Top-line stuff, an elite strikeout rate and a decent walk rate have always predicted that he should have a low-threes ERA. Since the All-Star break, that’s what he has, a 3.12 ERA with a single blow-up on his resume. Here’s the more interesting part: if there was a flaw to his game, it was that he was pretty much a two-pitch guy and late in games hitters would keyhole a pitch and a location and do damage. Since the break, though, he’s been throwing the sinker and knuckle curve a combined 20 percent of the time — important new wrinkles to his dominant fastball/slider combo.
Dylan Cease’s peripherals have been good all year. Top-line stuff, an elite strikeout rate and a decent walk rate have always predicted that he should have a low-threes ERA. Since the All-Star break, that’s what he has, a 3.12 ERA with a single blow-up on his resume. Here’s the more interesting part: if there was a flaw to his game, it was that he was pretty much a two-pitch guy and late in games hitters would keyhole a pitch and a location and do damage. Since the break, though, he’s been throwing the sinker and knuckle curve a combined 20 percent of the time — important new wrinkles to his dominant fastball/slider combo.
Dylan Cease’s peripherals have been good all year. Top-line stuff, an elite strikeout rate and a decent walk rate have always predicted that he should have a low-threes ERA. Since the All-Star break, that’s what he has, a 3.12 ERA with a single blow-up on his resume. Here’s the more interesting part: if there was a flaw to his game, it was that he was pretty much a two-pitch guy and late in games hitters would keyhole a pitch and a location and do damage. Since the break, though, he’s been throwing the sinker and knuckle curve a combined 20 percent of the time — important new wrinkles to his dominant fastball/slider combo.
The arm angle is a little down for Tyler Glasnow, and maybe that’s a good thing for his health. But it’s meant a little more side-to-side movement on his slider and curveball and a little less depth, and that’s moved the needle the wrong way on his Stuff+ numbers. There are other not-so-great signs, like his worst walk rate and fastball velocity in years. But he’s still striking out 30 percent of the batters he sees, and the projections are sparkling.
The arm angle is a little down for Tyler Glasnow, and maybe that’s a good thing for his health. But it’s meant a little more side-to-side movement on his slider and curveball and a little less depth, and that’s moved the needle the wrong way on his Stuff+ numbers. There are other not-so-great signs, like his worst walk rate and fastball velocity in years. But he’s still striking out 30 percent of the batters he sees, and the projections are sparkling.
The arm angle is a little down for Tyler Glasnow, and maybe that’s a good thing for his health. But it’s meant a little more side-to-side movement on his slider and curveball and a little less depth, and that’s moved the needle the wrong way on his Stuff+ numbers. There are other not-so-great signs, like his worst walk rate and fastball velocity in years. But he’s still striking out 30 percent of the batters he sees, and the projections are sparkling.
The Blake Snell experience is back on, adjust your excitement accordingly. He’s still going to walk a ton of people, and he still doesn’t quite trust his slider (more because of command maybe than stuff), and he’s probably still going to get results. He’s been this way forever and has a career 3.18 ERA in over 1,000 innings, there’s no reason for him to change his stripes. From a velocity and shapes standpoint, everything’s there and looks good.
The Blake Snell experience is back on, adjust your excitement accordingly. He’s still going to walk a ton of people, and he still doesn’t quite trust his slider (more because of command maybe than stuff), and he’s probably still going to get results. He’s been this way forever and has a career 3.18 ERA in over 1,000 innings, there’s no reason for him to change his stripes. From a velocity and shapes standpoint, everything’s there and looks good.
The Blake Snell experience is back on, adjust your excitement accordingly. He’s still going to walk a ton of people, and he still doesn’t quite trust his slider (more because of command maybe than stuff), and he’s probably still going to get results. He’s been this way forever and has a career 3.18 ERA in over 1,000 innings, there’s no reason for him to change his stripes. From a velocity and shapes standpoint, everything’s there and looks good.
Does the tier end with Freddy Peralta or before him? Formerly Fastball Freddy has a four-pitch mix now, but his strikeout rate is down from last year, and he doesn’t seem to trust his slider again. He’s also been pretty volatile even recently in his career, with poor stretches in most seasons. There’s a big rise in projected ERA with the pitchers ranked after him, though, and he’s avoided getting into a slump so far this year, so he’s probably the last really good No. 2 starter.
Does the tier end with Freddy Peralta or before him? Formerly Fastball Freddy has a four-pitch mix now, but his strikeout rate is down from last year, and he doesn’t seem to trust his slider again. He’s also been pretty volatile even recently in his career, with poor stretches in most seasons. There’s a big rise in projected ERA with the pitchers ranked after him, though, and he’s avoided getting into a slump so far this year, so he’s probably the last really good No. 2 starter.
Does the tier end with Freddy Peralta or before him? Formerly Fastball Freddy has a four-pitch mix now, but his strikeout rate is down from last year, and he doesn’t seem to trust his slider again. He’s also been pretty volatile even recently in his career, with poor stretches in most seasons. There’s a big rise in projected ERA with the pitchers ranked after him, though, and he’s avoided getting into a slump so far this year, so he’s probably the last really good No. 2 starter.
Carlos Rodón doesn’t locate any pitch at an above-average rate. He gets close with the slider, but he still goes to the four-seam more often when behind in the count. That’s why he’ll run higher walk and homer rates. His stuff is good enough to believe results like he’s having, but his batting average on balls in play would be the lowest of his career, so it’s better to hue closer to projections when forecasting the end of the season for the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.
Carlos Rodón doesn’t locate any pitch at an above-average rate. He gets close with the slider, but he still goes to the four-seam more often when behind in the count. That’s why he’ll run higher walk and homer rates. His stuff is good enough to believe results like he’s having, but his batting average on balls in play would be the lowest of his career, so it’s better to hue closer to projections when forecasting the end of the season for the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.
Carlos Rodón doesn’t locate any pitch at an above-average rate. He gets close with the slider, but he still goes to the four-seam more often when behind in the count. That’s why he’ll run higher walk and homer rates. His stuff is good enough to believe results like he’s having, but his batting average on balls in play would be the lowest of his career, so it’s better to hue closer to projections when forecasting the end of the season for the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.
If you just looked at ERA and strikeout and walk rates, you’d think that not a thing had changed and Brandon Woodruff was all the way back. But this is a different version, post-surgery. The velo is not there, the stuff isn’t back on most of his pitches, and he’s completely turfed his old hard slider. This version of Woodruff is three-quarters heaters with his changeup as his most frequent secondary pitch. Can it keep working? His customary great command says yes. That below-average fastball velocity says … maybe.
If you just looked at ERA and strikeout and walk rates, you’d think that not a thing had changed and Brandon Woodruff was all the way back. But this is a different version, post-surgery. The velo is not there, the stuff isn’t back on most of his pitches, and he’s completely turfed his old hard slider. This version of Woodruff is three-quarters heaters with his changeup as his most frequent secondary pitch. Can it keep working? His customary great command says yes. That below-average fastball velocity says … maybe.
If you just looked at ERA and strikeout and walk rates, you’d think that not a thing had changed and Brandon Woodruff was all the way back. But this is a different version, post-surgery. The velo is not there, the stuff isn’t back on most of his pitches, and he’s completely turfed his old hard slider. This version of Woodruff is three-quarters heaters with his changeup as his most frequent secondary pitch. Can it keep working? His customary great command says yes. That below-average fastball velocity says … maybe.
Stuff+ has never trusted Robbie Ray, so it might just not be capturing something about the pitcher. The model correctly points out that the lefty’s fastball is excellent, but it’s never respected the slider, and Ray has had a lot of success with that pitch. A few stumbles lately — a 4.34 ERA since the break, with a greatly reduced strikeout rate — mask the fact that this is the widest Ray’s arsenal has ever been. He’ll probably be fine.
Stuff+ has never trusted Robbie Ray, so it might just not be capturing something about the pitcher. The model correctly points out that the lefty’s fastball is excellent, but it’s never respected the slider, and Ray has had a lot of success with that pitch. A few stumbles lately — a 4.34 ERA since the break, with a greatly reduced strikeout rate — mask the fact that this is the widest Ray’s arsenal has ever been. He’ll probably be fine.
Stuff+ has never trusted Robbie Ray, so it might just not be capturing something about the pitcher. The model correctly points out that the lefty’s fastball is excellent, but it’s never respected the slider, and Ray has had a lot of success with that pitch. A few stumbles lately — a 4.34 ERA since the break, with a greatly reduced strikeout rate — mask the fact that this is the widest Ray’s arsenal has ever been. He’ll probably be fine.
Luis Castillo is a metronome! Well, is he? His ERA is still good, and so is his WHIP, but the fastball velocity is slowly dropping and this is the worst his strikeout rate has ever been. His slider is still a weapon for whiffs, but he’s hanging some of them. At least he’s locating the rest of his pitches well and has great floor, but it’s worth wondering if this rank will just slowly slip over the next few years as the velo dips further.
Luis Castillo is a metronome! Well, is he? His ERA is still good, and so is his WHIP, but the fastball velocity is slowly dropping and this is the worst his strikeout rate has ever been. His slider is still a weapon for whiffs, but he’s hanging some of them. At least he’s locating the rest of his pitches well and has great floor, but it’s worth wondering if this rank will just slowly slip over the next few years as the velo dips further.
Luis Castillo is a metronome! Well, is he? His ERA is still good, and so is his WHIP, but the fastball velocity is slowly dropping and this is the worst his strikeout rate has ever been. His slider is still a weapon for whiffs, but he’s hanging some of them. At least he’s locating the rest of his pitches well and has great floor, but it’s worth wondering if this rank will just slowly slip over the next few years as the velo dips further.
The velo is all the way back, the sweeper is in form, and Shohei Ohtani has four pitches that rate as elite by Stuff+. The location numbers are even good on his four-seam and breaking balls, at least. He threw a few good-looking splitters his last time out, too. The mix is in good shape post surgery. The results are good, too — strikeouts and walks are elite, everything else looks fine. The only question for Ohtani is when the Dodgers will let him go long enough to pick up a win, really. He faced 19 batters last time out, the most of the year. He’ll have to be allowed to face at least a handful more to get to five full innings.
The velo is all the way back, the sweeper is in form, and Shohei Ohtani has four pitches that rate as elite by Stuff+. The location numbers are even good on his four-seam and breaking balls, at least. He threw a few good-looking splitters his last time out, too. The mix is in good shape post surgery. The results are good, too — strikeouts and walks are elite, everything else looks fine. The only question for Ohtani is when the Dodgers will let him go long enough to pick up a win, really. He faced 19 batters last time out, the most of the year. He’ll have to be allowed to face at least a handful more to get to five full innings.
The velo is all the way back, the sweeper is in form, and Shohei Ohtani has four pitches that rate as elite by Stuff+. The location numbers are even good on his four-seam and breaking balls, at least. He threw a few good-looking splitters his last time out, too. The mix is in good shape post surgery. The results are good, too — strikeouts and walks are elite, everything else looks fine. The only question for Ohtani is when the Dodgers will let him go long enough to pick up a win, really. He faced 19 batters last time out, the most of the year. He’ll have to be allowed to face at least a handful more to get to five full innings.
(Top Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Luke Hales / Getty Images, Harry How / Getty Images, Yuki Iwamura / Associated Press)
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