The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | August 15 – 17, 2025
Week 33 | August 15 – 17, 2025
It’s going to be a rough weekend as we officially enter the dog days of the August box office. We are going to come in under $100M total at the domestic box office this frame, breaking a streak of 13 consecutive weeks above that benchmark. We have only had one sub-$100M weekend at the domestic box office since the end of Q1 (May 9-11), which was the first holdover weekend for Thunderbolts*. This is going to be the second sub-$100M frame since Q2, and we expect the weekend to finish in the mid-to-high $70M range overall. Led by what should be a solid word of mouth holdover for Weapons, with a lagging Freakier Friday in second, and a struggling Nobody 2, which we believe will open in the single digits. Business will continue to be slow through the end of the month, with the box office not expected to see a solid opening weekend until the release of the next Conjuring title (currently tracking to open at $35m+) on 9/5.
1. Weapons
Warner Bros. | Week 2
Weekend Range: $22M – $28M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- WB’s original horror hit Weapons managed to weaponize one of the best secretive-yet-alluring ad campaigns in ages to over-index to #1 this past frame with $43.5M (up a million dollars from Sunday estimates). Critics and audiences took the bait and were both satisfied, which means it could follow in the footsteps of recent original horror sleepers which barely fell in their sophomore frame, ala Get Out (-15% second weekend drop) or Sinners (-5% second weekend drop). All the elements are there for another win, including lack of strong competition and a growing hunger for original product at the multiplex. Domestic tally is currently at $48.75M and $81.25M WW.
Cons
- The high end of our panel’s prediction is $28M, but the low end of $22M would mean a nearly -50% drop for Weapons which is not as amazing as some are thinking. When you build your campaign around Mystery Box surprise then the likelihood the debut was front-loaded with horror fans is high. The drop will most-likely be similar to that of director Zach Cregger’s previous “don’t spoil the surprise/go in blind” movie Barbarian which dipped -38% in weekend 2. Marvel recently experienced the comic book faithful jamming into opening day of The Fantastic Four before abandoning it in droves on subsequent frames. However, the biggest negative is this frame represents yet another summer ’25 slot abandoned to holdovers and weak debuts which have no business in this season, even the tail-end.
2. Freakier Friday
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $14M – $18M
Showtime Marketshare: 12%
Pros
- A $28.58M opening for Freakier Friday (slightly down from $29M Sunday estimates) was enough to make it the #1 comedy opening of the year ahead of The Naked Gun, which should now at least get the conversation going again that comedies can still pull ticket buyers in the theatrical space. Positive audience notices (93% on RT, “A” CinemaScore) will go a long way toward helping this title leg it out, though don’t expect it to match the 2003 film’s $110.2M domestic take.
Cons
- Moderately positive reviews (73% on Rotten Tomatoes) left this long-gap sequel in the lurch, especially since it was perceived to be the easy winner of the weekend before Weapons blew the roof off. Instead it underperformed and #2 studio Disney was once again left wondering how the same IP-mining that elevated them so much in years prior has let them down in 2025. One possibility is this is exactly the kind of nostalgia bait their streamer Disney+ has specialized in (Hocus Pocus 2, Disenchanted) and its hard to lure audiences back once they are accustomed to catch product like this at home. Still, our panel predicts a less-than -50% drop in the sophomore frame, especially with the runway clear from other big family movies until Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie at the end of September.
3. Nobody 2
Universal Pictures | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $10M
Showtime Marketshare: 13%
Pros
- Despite its modest worldwide performance ($57.5M), the 2021 action movie Nobody earned solid reviews (85% on RT) celebrating a transformative role for middle-aged Better Call Saul actor Bob Odenkirk with his “everyguy” appeal. Now he’s back alongside the original supporting players (Connie Nielsen, RZA, Christopher Lloyd) as well as newcomers in Colin Hanks and Sharon Stone. Reviews are still forthcoming, although early reactions praise the movie’s bone-cracking action. This is the first non-John Wick movie from production company 87North to earn a sequel, although Violent Night 2 is coming next year…
Cons
- The original Nobody opened during the final gasp of prime pandemic in March of 2021 with a big push from Universal that yielded a $6.8M #1 opening and only $27.56M all-in domestically. Yes, the original John Wick (of which Nobody shares the same writer, producers, and tone) only made $43M domestic, but that flick was heralding the return of a legendary action hero in Keanu Reeves (The Matrix, Speed, Point Break). On the flip side, the appeal of Nobody was built around seeing the stringy comedy star Odenkirk transform himself into a killing machine, a novelty that can’t be duplicated in a sequel.
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