Matthew Berry’s 100 Facts You Need To Know Before You Draft in 2025

Let’s start, as we often do, with a simple question.

Which running back do you want?

Your draft is likely in the next few weeks and you gotta have some strong running backs, so let’s do some research.

I’m going to tell you about two running backs that are being drafted in the same round and I want you to read the analysis and tell me which RB you’d rather have…

“Running Back A” is just an absolute fantasy superstar. A consistent producer who spent nine different weeks as a top 12 RB last year. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson had more weeks as a “RB1” last season. Obviously, you know about his passing game role and his explosiveness, as “Running Back A” averages 9.1 yards per reception for his career. That’s the second highest average among RBs with 100+ targets in the last three seasons. But it’s not just his work in the passing game. Our guy is a scoring machine. A true finisher at the goal line. You’d probably not be shocked to learn he was top five in the NFL in goal-to-go carries and had double-digit scores last season. Still just 25, his underlying numbers keep popping. Coming off a year where he set career highs for yards after contact per rush and broken tackle rate, plus improved his yards per carry average from the season prior, it’s clear “Running Back A” is ready to take another leap this season.

Meanwhile, is it any shock that you’ve seen “Running Back B” on a bunch of “bust” lists this year? He’s in a full-blown committee and probably on the wrong side of it. Did you know his 48% snap percentage was 38th among running backs last year? 38th. Outside the top 25 at running back in touches per game, it’s hard to see how the veteran “Running Back B” has consistent fantasy value this year barring an injury to the other younger RB in that backfield.. He doesn’t get goal line work (under 55% of his team’s goal-to-go rushes), and he doesn’t get his team’s red zone work (under 50%) – both of those rates are outside the top 20 among other RBs. I guess it’s not surprising res zone work and touchdown production are spread out on this team given the multitude of options at running back and a quarterback with a nose for the end zone himself. However, you hoped there would at least be a lot of passing down work for “Running Back B.”

And yet he has just an 8% target share (38th among running backs) and last season had only three games with more than three targets. Not to mention, he played on just 13% of third downs. So, a RB who’s in a full-blown committee and not involved in the passing game? Yeesh. Let someone else deal with him this year.

Ok, so which running back do you want this season?

Realize that every single thing I just wrote about each player above is 100% true, heavily researched, verified, and completely accurate. You’re in the draft room, clock is ticking down, and you gotta make a pick in the next 10 seconds.

You’ve listened to podcasts, watched videos, and read a ton, including around 500 stat-filled words from me on two different running backs. You’ve been prepping for this day all summer. The choice should be easy, right? You know which RB you want, right? I’ve made it fairly obvious. Grab the clearly better RB and let’s start figuring out which one of our league mates we are gonna screw over by grabbing their starting RB’s backup, right?

Well, hang on for one more second. Before you click “draft” there’s one other fact you should know. “Running Back A” is James Cook.

Oh, and “Running Back B”?

That’s also James Cook.

Yeah.

You see, I can make stats say anything I want. Literally, anything I want. What’s the phrase? There are three kinds of lies.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. I can talk up or down any player I want. I just have to choose the right stats for the job.

Or use FantasyLife.com’s Utilization HQ, which is the sickest research tool that breaks down just about every player and their usage. Or you can ask my producer Damian Dabrowski to find the right stat, which I did at various points in this column.

The point is, everything in this column is an accurate statistical statement that has been heavily researched and double checked. They are heavily-vetted, purposefully-thought-out, 100% true, can’t-be-argued-with, black and white facts.

That only tells PART of the story.

The part of the story I want you to see. But ONLY that part. The part that supports whatever opinion I have on a player. Whatever opinion I want to try and convince you of.

For my example this year, I wanted to show how I can make the same player seem either great or awful, and I told the truth in each paragraph. For “Running Back A” when I wanted to talk up Cook, it was easy given his crazy touchdown equity last year. He scored 16 touchdowns in 12 games, so I just needed to spread those stats out without saying “16 touchdowns” because that would have given it away. I ignored all his usage issues both as a runner and pass catcher, and instead just focused on his great yards per reception average. He does have one; he just doesn’t get very many receptions. So, I ignored that. I chose the broken tackle rate and yards after contact per rush because honestly there wasn’t a lot of other stats to choose from where he actually made an improvement last year beyond the touchdowns.

Meanwhile, talking Cook down was also easy. While yes, he did score a crazy amount of touchdowns it’s also true that he got less than 55% of those carries. It’s just when he did get a goal-to-go carry, he converted it. And okay, James Cook at 25 isn’t old, but it IS true that Ray Davis is younger than him (by two months, lol) and was drafted more recently, so Cook is technically an older veteran compared to him. Cook also usually gets less than 15 touches per game, and Josh Allen is a legit threat to run. It’s just that offense is so explosive, it didn’t matter last year. So, super simple right? Talk him up – focus on the touchdowns.

Talk him down, focus on the concerning usage.

And I can do what I did with James Cook for any player in the NFL. Because, you see, there is actually very little in this world I am good at. But one thing I am a world class master at? Writing and manipulating stats to tell whatever story I want.

And I want to let you in on one more secret: I am not the only one.

Everyone does it. EVERYONE. Some are better at it than others, but everyone does it.

They do it in fantasy football analysis, they do it in office presentations, they do it in pop culture, and while arguing at the bar. And spend five minutes on any social media searching for politics to see it go insanely over the top from both sides.

Everyone tells you the stats or side of the story that supports what THEY think. But they don’t tell you the whole story.

And this is probably the best advice I can give you about fantasy football research all season. It’s why this is usually the first column I write every year (went out of order with Draft Day Manifesto dropping last week). So, this year it’s the second column, but whatever. I make the same points every year, reminding you of the same message, and making the same confession.

Because it’s crucial. There’s not a more crucial piece of information.

As you start your research, you have to understand that NOTHING you read/watch/listen to from me this year (or anyone else) is black and white. It’s ALL shades of gray.

Opinions, really. Opinions presented as facts. As you go through this preseason (and frankly, life) you’ll have a zillion folks tell you why this player is awesome and this other one is a bum and why you can’t leave your draft without this guy, but you have to let others draft this other guy and it’s all just opinions on players. They’ll throw facts, stats, and snippets of game film to support their side. They’ll share a cherry-picked coach’s quote or the three best plays from training camp that support their opinion. And ONLY that opinion.

The challenge these days is NOT finding information, it’s trying to wade through it all to decide what to believe and what to ignore. We live in an era of information overload.

Take dumb ol’ me for example. Here at NBC Sports/Rotoworld/Peacock I do a daily, hour-long show (“Fantasy Football Happy Hour”) that airs LIVE this year at Noon ET on YouTube and at 5 p.m. ET on Peacock. It’s available on demand on YouTube, Peacock and wherever you get your podcasts. During the season, I also have a Sunday morning show (“Fantasy Football Pregame”) from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET on Peacock and YouTube. I’m on Football Night in America before every single Sunday Night Football game on NBC Sports and Peacock. I’m constantly posting on my social media handles, where I am @MatthewBerryTMR on Twitter/X, Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok.

I also own Fantasy Life where, if you’d like to get a 100% free email from me and my team every single day with everything you need to know about fantasy football that day, you should sign up and check it out. Come on. It’s free. If you hate it, just unsubscribe.

And by the way, wait till you see our FantasyLife+ product.

We spent all off-season building a ridiculous set of tools that are ALL personalized specifically to your exact league settings. Every league is unique, so we believe your advice should be too.

And if that’s not enough, you can also subscribe to RotoPass.com a bundle site that includes FantasyLife+, a subscription to Peacock and access to many other great premium sites for one low price. It’s only the best value on the internet.

Blatant over the top sales plugs aside… the point is… all that information, tools, shows, rankings, and articles are just me, right? Stupid amount. And I’m one of many. There are tons of other men and women just like me doing really strong work both at NBCSports.com, FantasyLife.com, and elsewhere. Many other media companies, fantasy sports sites and shows where we are all talking and writing and arguing and tweeting and performing and blah blah blah. All of us trying to manipulate you into thinking how we do, starting with this column.

Frankly… it’s a LOT.

So, your job? Watch the games, do the research, figure out which analysts you trust, and whose thinking aligns with yours. Question everyone and everything you hear, many times over, take it all in, and then make your own call.

Because honestly, that’s all any of us are really doing. Taking a small piece of a big picture and making a call.

Everything that follows is a 100% completely accurate fact. Some of them are about players, some of them are about tendencies, and not a damn bit of it tells the whole story.

These are 100 facts you need to know before you draft in 2025. What you do with them is up to you.

1. In the history of the NFL, there have been only three QBs to AVERAGE at least 50 rushing yards per game.

2. Those QBs are Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and… Justin Fields.

3. Since the Detroit Lions’ bye week in the 2022 season, they have allowed a player to reach 100+ rushing yards against them just six times in 46 games.

4. Three of those six games were Justin Fields.

5. The Lions defensive coordinator those years was Aaron Glenn, the new head coach of the Jets.

6. In his six starts for the Steelers in 2024, Justin Fields was the QB7 in fantasy points per game.

6A. In 2023, Justin Fields was QB9 in PPG.

6B. In 2022, Justin Fields was QB5 in PPG.

6C. According to the FantasyLife.com Consensus ADP tool that tracks every major site, Justin Fields is currently being drafted as QB13.

6D. What are we doing here people? Seriously.

7. Last season, the Chicago Bears allowed the eighth-most QB pressures.

8. Last season, when pressured, Caleb Williams had a 35% off-target rate. That was the third-highest mark among qualified QBs.

9. Last season, when he wasn’t pressured, Caleb Williams had the fourth-best TD-INT ratio (among qualified quarterbacks).

9A. This offseason, the Bears traded for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, signed center Drew Dalman in free agency, drafted tackle Ozzy Trapilo in the second round, and added Colston Loveland and Luther Burden to a receiving group that includes DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet.

10. Last year, there were only seven QBs that averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game.

11. Six of those seven QBs ranked inside the top eight in designed QB runs.

12. The one who didn’t was Drake Maye.

12A. This year, Maye has Josh McDaniels as his new offensive coordinator.

12B. Josh McDaniels is not stupid.

13. Last season, despite sub-optimal playing-calling, and a significantly worse supporting cast, Drake Maye still managed to score 17+ fantasy points in six of the 10 games in which he played at least 75% of the snaps.

14. Last year, under Liam Coen as their play-caller, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished top three in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

14A. And they were sixth in QB fantasy points.

15. In his only season under Liam Coen, Baker Mayfield had a career high 378 rushing yards.

16. Trevor Lawrence has added 2.5 PPG from just rushing alone in every season of his career.

16A. This year, Trevor Lawrence is being coached by Liam Coen.

16B. Per FantasyLife.com Consensus ADP, Trevor Lawrence is currently going as QB19.

17. Last year, 33 different quarterbacks had more rushing yards than Jordan Love.

18. Last year, 45 different quarterbacks had more rushing yards per game than Jordan Love’s 5.5.

19. Last year, the Packers ran the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL.

19A. The other teams in the top three were quarterbacked by Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.

20. Last year, from Week 10 on last season, only five quarterbacks had more fantasy points from rushing than… Bryce Young.

21. Last year, from Week 12 on, only two quarterbacks had more fantasy points from rushing than… Bryce Young.

22. Last year, from Week 10 on, on a PPG basis, Bryce Young was QB10.

22A. This year, per FantasyLife.com consensus ADP, Bryce Young is going as QB23.

23. Here’s the entire list of non-quarterbacks that had at least 20 fantasy points in 10 games last year: Bijan Robinson.

24. Here’s the entire list of RBs last season to rank top five at the position in BOTH rush attempts AND targets: Bijan Robinson.

25. From Week 6 on last year, here’s the entire list of RBs to average more than Bijan Robinson’s 22.8 PPG: (this space intentionally left blank).

25A. Here’s the entire list of running backs I have ranked higher than Bijan Robinson this year: (this space intentionally left blank).

26. In the 11 games that Tua Tagovailoa started last year, De’Von Achane averaged 22.6 PPG.

27. Last year, 22.6 PPG would have been the No. 1 RB in fantasy football.

28. Last year, no running back had more receptions or receiving yards than… De’Von Achane.

29. Last year, in games started by Tua Tagovailoa, De’Von Achane had an 18% target share.

30. This July, the Miami Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith, who was second on the team with a 19.5% target share.

31. Since he entered the NFL, De’Von Achane leads all running backs in fantasy points per touch.

32. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown of the Bengals took over the starting running back role.

33. From Weeks 9-17 of last season, all Bengals running backs NOT named Chase Brown combined for nine total touches.

33A. NINE.

34. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown played over 85% of the snaps, while averaging over 23 touches and 116 scrimmage yards per game.

35. Starting in Week 9 of last season, Chase Brown was the fourth-best RB in PPG.

36. The other RB currently on the Bengals are 29-year-old Samaje Perine (48 touches last year) and sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks.

37. Over the last five seasons, here’s the entire list of running backs who have played at least 13 games and have at least 700 rushing yards in all five years: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery,… and James Conner.

38. Last year, 29-year-old James Conner was a top three RB in both avoided tackle rate and percentage of runs gaining 10+ yards.

39. Since coming to Arizona in 2021, James Conner has had at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and at least eight touchdowns every single year.

40. Since coming to Arizona in 2021, James Conner has never finished lower than RB15 in PPG.

40A. James Conner is currently going as RB19, around the 4/5 turn.

41. Here’s the entire list of RBs with over 50 receptions in each of the last three seasons: Alvin Kamara.

42. Here’s the entire list of RBs with over 40 receptions in each of the last eight seasons: Alvin Kamara.

43. Here’s the entire list of RBs who had at least a 21.4% target share last year: Alvin Kamara.

44. Last year, only two running backs had more games with at least 15 fantasy points than… Alvin Kamara.

45. Last year, from Weeks 1-17, Ken Walker III started 11 games.

45A. Last year, from Weeks 1-17, Zach Charbonnet started five games.

46. If you just played whoever the starting RB from the Seahawks was last year, that spot would have averaged 18 PPG, which would have been RB6.

47. Ken Walker III is currently going as RB15.

47A. And Zach Charbonnet is going as RB38.

48. Last season there were 31 different running backs that had at least 150 carries.

49. Only two of them had at least 15% of their carries go for 10+ yards.

50. One of them is Jahmyr Gibbs. The other is… Jordan Mason.

51. In 2024, 30-year-old Aaron Jones converted only five of his 20 goal-to-go opportunities.

52 In 2022, Breece Hall was RB8 in PPG. Per the Fantasy Life Utilization Tool, he averaged 4.3 targets per game.

53. In 2023, Breece Hall was RB6 in PPG. He averaged 5.3 targets per game.

54. In 2024, Breece Hall was RB17 in PPG. He averaged 4.7 targets per game.

55. For his career, the most targets per game a starting RB has averaged from Justin Fields was Najee Harris last year with 3.0 targets per game from Weeks 1-6.

55A. Breece Hall is currently going as RB14.

56. From Weeks 12-18 last year, there were only two wide receivers who played 40+ snaps and had four or fewer receptions in every game during that stretch. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and… DK Metcalf.

57. With Arthur Smith as a head coach or offensive coordinator, the most targets a wide receiver has ever gotten in a season was Drake London in 2022 with 117.

58. During his six-year NFL career, DK Metcalf has had two seasons where he failed to get 117 targets. He had under 1,000 yards in both of them and finished outside the top 30 among WRs in both seasons.

59. Over the last four seasons, with Arthur Smith as the head coach or offensive coordinator, no wide receiver has finished higher than 31st in either total fantasy points or points per game.

60. In his six-year NFL career, DK Metcalf has finished as a top 20 WR in PPG…. Once.

60A. DK Metcalf is currently going as WR20.

61. Over the last two seasons, no wide receiver has a higher yards per route run than than… Nico Collins.

62. And he ranks second in yards per target.

62A. And third in fantasy points per target.

63. In the 22 games where Nico Collins has played at least 60% of the snaps, he’s averaging 18.9 PPG.

63A. Last year, 18.9 PPG would have been WR2.

64. Since 1970, there have only been four rookie wide receivers to have 1,200+ receiving yards and 10+ receiving touchdowns: Randy Moss, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and… Brian Thomas Jr.

65. Since the year 2000, only eight wide receivers have averaged 16.5+ PPG in their rookie year.

65A. Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers are two of the eight.

66. The other six are Odell Beckham Jr, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Michael Thomas, and Anquan Boldin.

66A. Those six averaged 18 PPG in their second year in the NFL.

67. Last year, 18 PPG would have been WR7.

68. Since he entered the NFL, George Pickens ranks second in yards per reception.

69. During that time frame, among qualified wide receivers, George Pickens has the fourth-highest aDOT.

70. Over the last two years, Dak Prescott is top eight in the NFL in both deep pass attempts per game and deep ball accuracy.

71. Last season, there were 21 different players who had at least 120 targets.

72. Last season, of those 21 players, no one had a higher off-target rate than … Calvin Ridley.

73. Last year, Calvin Ridley only had four games with 7+ catchable targets.

73A. He averaged 18.3 PPG in those games.

74. Last season, no wide receiver in the NFL had more deep targets than Calvin Ridley.

75. Last season in college, new Titans QB Cam Ward had the fourth-most completions on passes of 20+ air yards.

76. In the first preseason game, Calvin Ridley had a 43% target share from Cam Ward, including 56% of his air yards.

77. At the moment, San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is not expected back until Week 6 at the earliest, rookie wide receiver Jordan Watkins is expected to miss a month with a high ankle sprain, Demarcus Robinson (who they signed in March) is facing a potential suspension, and the trade of Deebo Samuel opens up a 19% target share from last year.

78. Last year, in the nine games Jauan Jennings played over 70% of the snaps, he averaged 17.9 PPG.

78A. Last year, 17.9 PPG would have been WR7.

78B. Jauan Jennings is currently being drafted as WR44.

79. In each of the past three seasons, Jakobi Meyers has finished as a top 30 WR in PPG.

80. In the 12 games he played last year without Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers had a 27.1% target share.

81. In the 12 games he played last year without Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers was WR20.

82. Last year, the Raiders ranked 26th in yards per pass attempt.

83. In the three years new Raiders QB Geno Smith started for Seattle, the Seahawks were ninth in yards per pass attempt.

83A. Currently, Jakobi Meyers is barely being drafted as a top 40 wide receiver.

84. In his three starts last season, no QB had a higher average depth of target than… Michael Penix Jr.

85. In his three starts last year, no player had a higher percentage of his passes travel 20+ air yards than Michael Penix Jr.

86. Last year, there were only four players with more receiving yards on deep passes than… Darnell Mooney.

87. Last year, there were 34 different players who had at least 105 targets.

88. And the player with the highest off-target rate on THOSE targets was… Darnell Mooney.

89. Last year, Trey McBride became one of only four tight ends in NFL history to have a season with more than 110 receptions.

89A. And scored only two touchdowns.

90. Last year, Trey McBride had nine end zone targets and the Cardinals were able to convert only one of them.

91. Last year, Trey McBride was tackled inside the 5-yard line five different times.

91A. McBride still finished as the TE2 in PPG (15.6 PPG).

91B. If McBride had managed just four more touchdowns among his 147 total targets last year he would have averaged 17.1 PPG.

91C. Last year, CeeDee Lamb averaged 17.6 PPG.

92. Last year, no tight end had more end zone targets than… David Njoku.

93. Last year, David Njoku was targeted on 25.7% of his routes – the fifth-highest rate at the position.

94. In 2023, Joe Flacco started five games for the Cleveland Browns.

95. In those five games, David Njoku had a 22.5% target share and averaged 18.2 PPG.

95A. Last year, 18.2 would have been TE1 by over two points per game.

95B. David Njoku is currently going as TE8, outside the top 90 overall.

96. Last season, with Drake Maye under center, Hunter Henry had a team-high 20.8% target share.

97. Last season, Hunter Henry saw twice as many red zone and end zone targets from Drake Maye as any other player on the team.

98. In 2021, under former and now current offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Hunter Henry saw 47% of the team’s end zone targets and scored a career-high nine touchdowns.

99. That year, he finished as the 10th best tight end in fantasy based on total points.

100. He is going as TE21, if he is drafted at all.