Topline
President Donald Trump on Tuesday said his tariffs are taking in “trillions of dollars”—which matches estimates from some economists for revenue his levies could generate, but over the next decade, not so far this year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected tariff revenue would reach $300 billion per year.
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Key Facts
“Trillions of dollars are being taken in on tariffs,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, suggesting his levies have “not caused inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers.”
Trump leaves out that tariffs are paid by U.S. companies to import foreign goods, with those costs eventually paid by U.S. consumers.
How Much Revenue Has The U.s. Collected From Trump’s Tariffs?
The U.S. has collected $142 billion from tariff revenue so far this fiscal year, which ends in September, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday. Since Trump’s tariffs took effect in April, his levies have generated about $96 billion in revenue, after customs duties jumped to $28 billion in July, marking an annual increase of 273%. Customs duties accounted for $27 billion in revenue for June, $22 billion in May and $16 billion in April. Before Trump’s tariffs were announced, customs duties totaled $8 billion in March and $7 billion in February and January. Customs duties are tariffs or taxes paid by importers in international trade, meaning companies, businesses or individuals in the U.S. are required to pay levies as goods enter the country. Consumers tend to carry the weight of tariff costs as companies adjust prices to offset or absorb the effects of tariffs.
How Much Revenue Will Trump’s Tariffs Generate?
Even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told MSNBC earlier this month he expects tariffs would generate $300 billion annually, noting “there’s a chance that could be higher” in 2026. The Tax Foundation projected Trump’s tariffs would raise about $2.5 trillion over the next decade, even as the levies will likely raise the price of common goods and taxes for the average household by nearly $1,300 in 2025 and $1,700 in 2026. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a public policy nonprofit, expects Trump’s tariffs to generate $2.8 trillion to the U.S. gross domestic product by fiscal year 2034 if they continue.
Have Trump’s Tariffs Influenced Inflation?
Inflation jumped lower than expected to 2.7% in July, though core consumer prices—a measurement that excludes food and energy—rose 3.1% year-over-year, matching a high this year set in January. It appears Trump’s tariffs have raised prices, and some economists have warned his levies could hike costs through the end of the year. JPMorgan Chase’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, argued in a note earlier this year that Trump’s tariffs would result in “meaningfully larger increases” to consumer prices and higher inflation at some point this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last month that while the U.S. economy was in a “solid position,” the effects of tariffs on the economy and inflation “remain to be seen.”
Tangent
Trump said last month his administration would “consider” sending checks based on the revenue his tariffs have generated. Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced a bill after Trump signaled interest in a rebate check, which would send at least $600 to each eligible adult and dependent child this year. A larger rebate check would be issued if tariff revenue exceeds projections, according to a draft of the bill, which reduces the rate by 5% to about $570 for joint filers with an adjusted gross income above $150,000, a head of household with an income above $112,500 or an individual whose income exceeds $75,000. The bill has yet to be considered.
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