Thankfully, the 2025 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year, fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the sixth part of an eight-part series, I identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the NFC North.
Fantasy Football Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: NFC North
Fantasy Football ADP Values
D’Andre Swift (CHI): ADP 56.8 | RB21
Everyone expected the Bears to spend an early pick in the NFL Draft on a running back, potentially trading up in the first round for Ashton Jeanty. Instead, they waited until the seventh round to select Kyle Monangai. While the rookie will compete with Roschon Johnson for the No. 2 spot on the depth chart and the David Montgomery role in Ben Johnson’s offense, Swift’s job as the lead running back is safe.
Last year, the veteran finished as the RB19, averaging 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game despite running behind an awful offensive line. Thankfully, Chicago significantly improved their offensive line this offseason, trading for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, signing Drew Dalman, and using a second-round NFL Draft pick on Ozzy Trapilo. Furthermore, the Bears brought in Dan Roushar as their offensive line coach. Don’t be surprised if Chicago has one of the top offensive lines in the league this year.
More importantly, Swift had arguably the most efficient season of his career in 2022 with Johnson as the offensive coordinator in Detroit. Despite Jamaal Williams leading the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns on 262 attempts, Swift finished as the RB15 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per outing. He also had an 8.1% explosive run rate, the second-highest among 43 running backs with at least 99 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data).
Jordan Mason (MIN): ADP 119.2 | RB39
Mason finished last year as the RB41, averaging 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game as a part-time starter. However, he was outstanding early in the season, filling in for Christian McCaffrey, ranking as the RB5 over the first month, averaging 111.8 rushing yards, 0.8 touchdowns, and 18.6 fantasy points per game, totaling 17.4 or more in all but one contest. Unfortunately, Mason dealt with injuries later in the year and missed the final five contests with a high ankle sprain.
Yet, the former Georgia Tech star is one of my favorite running back targets this season, regardless of draft strategy. Mason went from being McCaffrey’s handcuff to the co-starter in Minnesota alongside the aging Aaron Jones. Everyone in the team’s build and reporters believe the Vikings traded for Mason this offseason to lighten Jones’ workload, especially around the goal line. Furthermore, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if he takes over as the lead guy before Halloween.
While Jones offers more upside in the passing game, Mason is the more productive runner. According to Fantasy Points Data, Mason had a better explosive run rate (7.8% vs. 3.5%) and missed forced tackle per attempt rate (22% vs. 11%) than Jones last year. Furthermore, he had a better yards after contact per attempt average (3.06) than Derrick Henry (2.63) and Bijan Robinson (2.54). Don’t be surprised if Mason becomes a league winner, especially if Jones misses time with an injury.
Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
DJ Moore (CHI): ADP 48.6 | WR20
Many were afraid to draft Moore last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. The veteran finished as the WR16, averaging 14 PPR fantasy points per game. However, he was the WR26 on a points-per-game basis among wide receivers with at least nine games played, posting a lower average than Cooper Kupp (14.6) and Jordan Addison (14.2). While Allen recently signed with the Los Angeles Chargers, Moore has even more competition for targets this season.
Chicago used their top two picks in the NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. Many believe Ben Johnson views the rookies as his new Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown in his offense. Meanwhile, Odunze has quietly had an impressive offseason, with some believing the former Washington star could replace Moore as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. More importantly, the veteran has had a rocky offseason, reportedly having issues with Johnson.
Furthermore, Moore had 140 targets last year, the most on the team and the 12th-most in the NFL. However, he had under 1,000 receiving yards for only the second time since his rookie season in 2018. Moore also averaged a career-low 1.44 yards per route run. More importantly, Johnson could make the Bears a run-first offense after having success with it in Detroit. Therefore, Moore is vastly overvalued as an early fifth-round pick and the WR20 in the ADP.
Jared Goff (DET): ADP 103.8 | QB10
Last year, Goff had the best season of his career, finishing as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game. The veteran had over 4,600 passing yards for the third time in his career, with the last time coming in 2019 with the Los Angeles Rams. Furthermore, he set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy players should temper expectations for Goff this season.
The veteran is due for touchdown regression. Last year, Goff posted a career-high 6.9% passing touchdown rate. By comparison, his previous career best was 5.9% while his career average is 4.8%. More importantly, the Lions lost Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears. Goff averaged 267.5 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game over the past three years with Johnson calling the plays. By comparison, he averaged 231.8 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game in his lone season in Detroit without Johnson.
More importantly, thanks to an elite offensive line, Goff wasn’t overly pressured last year. According to Fantasy Points Data, his 26.7% pressure rate and his -4.1% pressure rate over expectation were both the eighth-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. Unfortunately, Goff will play behind a rebuilt offensive line in 2025. The Lions lost Kevin Zeitler in free agency and Frank Ragnow to retirement this offseason. Second-round rookie Tate Ratledge and second-year sixth-round pick Christian Mahogany will take over as starters.
Fantasy Football Sleepers to Target
Tucker Kraft (GB): ADP 115.8 | TE12
Many fantasy experts have Kraft as a sleeper tight end this year. Therefore, it’s surprising to see him barely inside the TE1 range in ADP. He had a breakout season in 2024 after a quiet rookie year, despite Jordan Love dealing with multiple injuries. Kraft finished as the TE10, averaging 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game, leading the Packers in receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked fourth in receiving touchdowns by tight ends but 18th in receptions (50).
Furthermore, Kraft finished first among qualifying tight ends in yards after the catch per reception (9.38). Fantasy players should love that stat. In 2023, George Kittle (7.51) and Jonnu Smith (7.42) were two of the best tight ends in yards after the catch per reception. Both veterans finished as top-four tight ends last year. More importantly, Kraft was extremely efficient last season and could have a career year in 2025 with more opportunities.
|
Tucker Kraft’s Opportunities* |
Tucker Kraft’s Efficiency* |
||||
|
Target Share |
13.6% |
20th |
Receiving Yards Per Game |
41.6 |
12th |
|
Targets Per Route Run |
17% |
26th |
Yards Per Route Run |
1.9 |
7th |
|
First-Read Target Share |
13% |
26th |
Missed Tackles Forced |
14 |
3rd |
|
End-Zone Targets |
3 |
23rd |
Yards After The Catch Per Reception |
9.38 |
1st |
* Among 36 tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2024 (via Fantasy Points Data)
Green Bay failed to take advantage of the former South Dakota State star. Despite being one of the more productive tight ends last season, Kraft struggled to see the ball. He had a lower target per route run rate than Malik Heath (21%) and Bo Melton (20%). While the Packers drafted Matthew Golden, the rookie isn’t much of a threat to Kraft’s production. Don’t be surprised if he leads all tight ends in receiving touchdowns this year.
J.J. McCarthy (MIN): ADP 147.2 | QB19
Unfortunately, McCarthy’s rookie season was over before fantasy players could see much from the former Michigan star. He only played in one preseason game, suffering a season-ending torn meniscus. However, McCarthy flashed significant upside, completing 64.7% of his passes for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and 15.3 fantasy points on only 18 attempts. Furthermore, he showed off his mobility, totaling two rushing attempts for 18 yards. Yet, many fantasy players have their doubts about the former Michigan star.
While McCarthy played well in his long preseason contest, that’s not why fantasy players should have high hopes for him in 2025. He is one of my most drafted quarterbacks so far this offseason because of Kevin O’Connell. The Vikings’ head coach made Sam Darnold a weekly starting option for fantasy players last year. He finished as QB9, averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in the NFL with 35 passing touchdowns.
Furthermore, Minnesota has an excellent set of pass catchers, giving McCarthy the weapons needed to succeed. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson form one of the top receiving trios in the NFL. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones’ eight yards per reception ranked sixth among running backs with at least 50 targets last season. More importantly, the Vikings improved the offensive line by adding Donovan Jackson, Will Fries, and Ryan Kelly. Don’t be surprised if McCarthy has a Patrick Mahomes-lite sophomore-year breakout.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
