NBA’s 3 most overrated and underrated teams, starring Celtics, Spurs, Nuggets, and more

The dog days of the NBA offseason have set in. Just about the only thing hanging over the league right now is the frozen restricted free agent market keeping four young players from agreeing to new deals. It’s brought the rest of the NBA’s summer activity to a halt with it. There’s still plenty of time left for a big trade or two before training camps open league-wide on Oct. 1, but for now it feels like we have a pretty good handle on the hierarchy of the league heading into next season.

ESPN dropped a way-too-early power rankings for the 2025-26 season this week. A nine-person panel of writers came up with consensus rankings entering the season, and it does a great job outlining what the championship race, tank race, and middle-class of the league all look like. Of course, reasonable minds can disagree over the exact placement of these teams.

We’ll have our own rankings closer to the start of the new season. For now, here are the teams we think are overrated and underrated heading into the season, based on ESPN’s rankings.

Underrated: No. 3 Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets check in behind the Thunder and Rockets in these rankings. OKC deserves to be the favorite entering the season, but to me the Nuggets are their biggest competition. Denver nailed the offseason by adding Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas. A team that was so reliant on under-developed young players finally has the veteran depth it always needed. The upgrade from Michael Porter Jr. to Johnson is also a substantial one: if Johnson was one of the league’s most efficient scorers with Cam Thomas passing him the ball in Brooklyn, just imagine how he’ll be playing off Nikola Jokic’s gravity. Of course, this all comes back to Jokic, who has been the best player in the league for five years running and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Nuggets have a real chance to win the championship with a better supporting cast around their mega-star, and to me it makes them the league’s second-most-likely champion entering the season.

Overrated: No. 13 Dallas Mavericks

Kyrie Irving is very likely out of the year as he rehabs a torn ACL. In his absence, Dallas has a notable lack of ball handling, with free agent addition D’Angelo Russell and holdover Dante Exum being the only things resembling a point guard on this roster. ESPN has the Mavericks as the 8th best team in the West, ahead of the Grizzlies, Spurs, and Trail Blazers. My guess is two of those three teams finish with a better record than Dallas, and the Mavs will be back in the lottery this season. Cooper Flagg is going to be awesome as a rookie, but it’s important to remember he’ll be the youngest player in the NBA this season. The Anthony Davis-Dereck Lively II front line is super intriguing, but I’m a bit worried about the spacing, as well as AD’s consistently inconsistent availability. This is likely going to be among the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, and I’m not confident that the defense can make up for it. I laid out my preferred road map for the Mavs after they won the lottery for Flagg, and I still believe Dallas should take more of a long-term view of their build around their new star.

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Overrated: No. 14 Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks’ attempt to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo happy this summer was equal parts desperate and creative. Waiving Damian Lillard (and stretching his cap hit over five years) to sign Myles Turner was a move no one saw coming. Turner is a natural replacement for Brook Lopez (now a Clipper) as a stretch-five next to Giannis, and at age-29, he should have plenty of good years left. I’m just not sure if it’s really moving the needle enough to make the Bucks the No. 6 team in the East, as ESPN predicts. Milwaukee has nothing resembling a starting point guard on this roster: Cole Anthony, Ryan Rollins, and Kevin Porter Jr. each provide a different skill set, but it’s not making up the loss of a healthy Lillard. The wing room here is pretty terrible too barring a major bounce-back season from Kyle Kuzma, who was awful last year. Depth is more important than ever in the NBA these days, and unless Giannis gives the Bucks 82 games of super-human play, I don’t see how this team gets a protected playoff seed in the East.

Underrated: No. 16 San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are ready to make a push up the Western Conference standings. Victor Wembanyama is reportedly ready to go after a blood clot in his shoulder ended his season early last year, and he’s poised to certify himself as a top-10 player in the world in Year 3. Wemby only played five games with De’Aaron Fox before the injury last year, and a full season of Fox should be highly beneficial for San Antonio. Stephon Castle should be better in Year 2 — can he improve as a shooter even a little bit? — and Dylan Harper is an instant impact rookie in my eyes. Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk give San Antonio more front court depth and lineup flexibility than they’ve ever had in the Wemby era, and for once it feels like this team can hang tough when its 7’5 French superhuman goes to the bench. This ranking has the Spurs at No. 10 in the West, and I think they will easily be better than that.

Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Overrated: No. 17 Boston Celtics

The Celtics won’t just be missing Jayson Tatum as he recovers from a torn Achilles this season, they will be missing Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kornet, too. This has to be the worst front court in the league with Neemias Queta and Sam Hauser slated to start, and Luka Garza probably playing big minutes as a backup center. The Celtics are already lying the groundwork for a stealth tank that can get them a premium draft pick while Tatum recovers. Don’t be surprised when Jaylen Brown and/or Derrick White get shutdown early, Boston bombs the second half, and crosses its fingers for some good luck on lottery night. I do not think the Celtics are making the playoffs.

Underrated: No. 27 Charlotte Hornets

Oh no, I’m talking myself into the Hornets again. I was high on the Hornets last season, and that totally blew up in my face. For Charlotte to take a leap up the standings this year, LaMelo Ball has to stay available and play a little less selfishly, Brandon Miller needs to take a leap, and Kon Knueppel needs to be an instant impact rookie. I can see all of those things happening, and in a down year for the East, I think the Hornets can win more games than it feels like entering the year. Adding Collin Sexton for nothing for a nice move for the bench, and last year’s top-10 pick Tidjane Salaun can’t be any worse than he was as a rookie. The big rotation scares me, but I could see Charlotte being a little more competitive than this with a solid young head coach in Charles Lee, and enough shot-creation and shooting to build a decent offense.