Fortunes can change quickly in the NBA, and you only need to look at the two teams in the 2025 NBA Finals for proof. The Thunder ended the 2021-2022 season at 24-58 overall. The Indiana Pacers finished that season 25-57. Three years later, the two franchises played a Game 7 for the championship. That’s all the motivation today’s cellar-dwellers should need to get their acts together.
Of course, both the Pacers and Thunder already had their franchise stars on the roster by the time the 2022 offseason hit. Both clubs found their leading man via trade — with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander arriving in OKC from the Clippers, and Tyrese Haliburton coming over from the Kings to Indy — but they each hit multiple draft picks and free agent signings to build strong supporting casts around them.
This list will look at the teams in the bleakest long-term situations as of right now. Present day rosters are prioritized in the rankings, but so are future draft assets and financial flexibility. It will be fun to look back at these rankings in a few years and see which team clawed their way out of a bad spot most effectively. Will of these franchises jump to the Finals three years from now like the Thunder and Pacers did? It’s not impossible.
Needs a hero
10. Toronto Raptors
9. Chicago Bulls
The Bulls, Raptors, and Blazers can talk themselves into both a decent present and future. All three teams will have a chance to make the playoffs this season; all three have all of their future draft picks — save for one lottery-protected pick Portland owes to Chicago over the next three years. Toronto has the best long-term building block in Scottie Barnes, but it’s possible Matas Buzelis, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Noa Essengue, Yang Hansen, or Collin Murray-Boyles can surpass him in the next couple years. The Bulls have the cleanest cap sheet of the three for now, but that will change quickly if they overpay Josh Giddey and Coby White over the next 12 months. The Blazers feel like they have the best overall roster among this group, but Portland also plays in the West and has three potentially damaging long-term contracts in Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, and Damian Lillard locked in through 2028. The Raptors are paying a ton of money for multiple years for a team that feels like it will top out without winning a playoff series. All of these teams would look so much better if they lucked into a top-3 pick in 2026, but the odds are low for that to happen because all three should be around .500 this year. Throw the Miami Heat in this group, too, but they feel a tad better than this trio. If you really believe the middle is the worst place to be in the NBA, these teams have a case to be higher in the rankings.
Giannis and a prayer
The Bucks’ situation is so unique that they have to be in their own tier. There’s a case that Milwaukee shouldn’t be on this list at all because they already have a premier franchise star. Giannis Antetokounmpo will keep the Bucks competitive all by himself, but the whole league will be wondering how long it will take for him to get a wandering eye if things don’t improve quickly. The Bucks have a huge anchor on the cap sheet going forward after waiving-and-stretching Damian Lillard, and they don’t control their first-round pick until 2031. The highest upside young player on Milwaukee’s roster is … Bogoljub Marković? Ryan Rollins? The Bucks are going to have to take some risks to improve their long-term outlook, and their recent “risks” being Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. doesn’t inspire much confidence. This is the worst guard room in the NBA outside of Washington and Utah, and the wing group might be even worse if you consider Giannis a big. It’s possible a Giannis trade could net a huge package of assets that could save the Bucks’ future, but their return is going down the longer they wait, and they won’t do it until Giannis makes them do it. I feel like it’s going to take a miracle for the Bucks to build another contender around Antetokounmpo, and that’s why I view this as of the worst situations in the league.
Terrible present with more hope for the future
7. Charlotte Hornets
I grouped the Hornets and Nets together mostly because both of them will likely miss the play-in tournament in the East, but each can at least say they have a surplus of draft picks to help them build for the future. In terms of present day rosters, I would take LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel long-term over any player on the Nets. At the same time, Ball has to find a way to actually stay healthy for a full season, or he’s in risk of becoming one of the worst contracts in the league on a max deal. I always talk myself into the Hornets because I was such a Ball fan during his draft class, but we’re in Year 21 of Hornets futility since they relaunched, and the misery doesn’t seem likely to end any time soon. The Nets’ current roster inspires even less confidence, but it’s possible to talk yourself into their future. Brooklyn appears to have a very good young coach in Jordi Fernandez, it has plenty of future cap flexibility, and they’re in a market that can actually attract top free agents. I didn’t love the Nets’ draft haul which dampens my enthusiasm for their overall direction quite a bit. The good news for both teams is they have extra picks in the chamber. The Nets have an unprotected 2032 Nuggets pick, three more unprotected Knicks picks, and a top-8 protected Sixers pick in 2028. Brooklyn also owes swap rights to Houston for its first-round pick in 2027 and 2029, and that’s scary for them. Charlotte has all its own first-rounders, plus incoming picks from the Mavs (2027) and Heat (lottery protected in 2027, and unprotected in 2028). An optimist could see some upside in both situations, and I would absolutely understand if many people would rather have Brooklyn and Charlotte’s outlook than Portland or Chicago’s. It’s probably going to be a long year in both Charlotte and Brooklyn, but at least there are multiple paths to success for both franchises.
Well run organizations far away from competing
4. Utah Jazz
The Wizards and Jazz have a lot in common: both embarked on a full-scale tear down behind a new front office over the last few years, and neither have much to show for it yet. Both of these teams would really love some lottery luck. Utah has picked at No. 9, No. 10, and No. 5 since trading both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in the same offseason. The Wizards landed the No. 2 pick in a weak 2024 draft, but they’re also still looking for a savior. Washington has a decent collection of prospects with Alex Sarr (the aforementioned 2024 No. 2 pick), Bilal Couibaly, Tre Johnson, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George. Washington desperately needs one of those guys to show some real promise this year. The Jazz have an even bigger prospect group, but the best one is … Kyle Filipowski? Ace Bailey? It feels like both of these front offices have gone about their rebuilds the right way, but there’s still a lot of losses in their short-term future. It’s certainly reasonable to believe the Wizards and Jazz can build an actually good team sooner than the Bulls and Raptors. But for both of these teams, the best asset they own right now is their 2026 first-round pick. You only need to get into the top-3 in 2026 to find a real foundational star, and these clubs will likely maximize their odds heading into the lottery.
What are they doing?
3. Sacramento Kings`
It feels like yesterday that the Kings had Tyrese Haliburton coming off a breakout rookie season. In reality, it was really only two seasons ago that the Kings were coming off their first playoff appearance since 2006, and seemed to have a promising foundation built around De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and reigning NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown. Things crumbled quickly, with Fox pushing his way out, Brown getting fired, and a familiar dysfunction taking hold again in Sacramento. The Kings’ bold plan to recreate the 2021 Chicago Bulls without the skeleton key that made them work was always a fatally flawed idea. Sacramento needed Keegan Murray to take a big leap, but it feels unlikely that’s going to happen now that Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are taking most of the shots. A Sabonis trade feels inevitable if the Kings have another bad season (and they probably will), but can this franchise really handle another tear down after so many failed rebuilds? The Kings have all of their picks until 2031 (when they owe swap rights to San Antonio), but the roster continues to be mismanaged and there’s no one who feels capable of carrying the franchise moving forward. Picking up Keon Ellis’ option was one mistake this summer (they should have tried to re-sign him to a long-term deal), and giving out real money to Dennis Schroder feels like another one. The Western Conference is just so unforgiving, and it feels like only a matter of time before Sacramento is in the tank race again, they just don’t know it yet.
2. Phoenix Suns
The Suns could have had a life vest for their future this summer, but they were too delusional to take it. Trading Kevin Durant was always a formality, and it feels like Phoenix did as well as it could possibly do in that deal. The issue is they didn’t go far enough. It feels like Phoenix’s most prudent move would have been trading Devin Booker too, and trying to recoup some of the their own first-round picks that they’ve traded away. Instead, Booker signed an extension that will pay him $75 million once it kicks in for the 2028-29 season. Phoenix also chose to waive-and-stretch Bradley Beal, which means it will have a $19.4 million cap hit on the books for the next five years. The Suns reportedly turned down the Pelicans’ unprotected first-round pick for No. 10, according to The Athletic’s John Hollinger. Listen, I loved Phoenix’s pick of Khaman Maluach, but he’s now got a ton riding on him. It’s hard to part with a homegrown star, so it’s understandable why the Suns chose to keep Booker. It just feels very unlikely they can build a good team around him in the West while not owning any of their first-round picks until 2032. There’s an alternate universe where the Suns traded Booker, took the Pelicans’ pick, and prioritized a longer-term rebuild instead of a doomed mission to compete in the tougher conference. As a big believer in Maluach, it’s certainly possible he could turn into the co-star Booker needs. Phoenix is going to need to nail a couple more trades and draft picks to have a chance even if that happens. With so many assets out of the door and a big anchor on the cap sheet, it’s going to be really hard for Phoenix to pull itself out of this hole.
1. New Orleans Pelicans
It’s totally possible that the Pelicans’ reckless decision to trade their unprotected 2026 first-round pick for Derik Queen works out in their favor. If New Orleans only pays out, say, the No. 8 overall pick next year, and Queen turns into a good player, then it’s far from a catastrophe. Still, the process that led to the trade was so bad that it’s hard to have any faith in new front office tandem Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver going forward. There’s been a lot of talk about how Queen and Zion Williamson are a poor fit together on the floor because neither can shoot and both are low-motor defenders. I’m also skeptical of Queen’s fit next to the Pelicans’ No. 7 overall pick Jeremiah Fears, because both need the ball on offense, and both are question marks defensively. Fears should get a big runway to show his talent, but why did New Orleans want to pair him with Jordan Poole in the backcourt? That’s bound to be another clash. One thing the Pelicans do have going for them is Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III as an awesome wing duo who are both in their prime. Jones and Murphy work well with all of Williamson, Fears, and Queen on whatever the next competitive version of the Pelicans looks like. Williamson continues to hang over this franchise like a ghost: we know he can be one of the better players in the NBA when he’s healthy, but he’s never healthy, and at this point it’s silly to ever expect him to be healthy. More than anything, the Pelicans just kind of seem cursed: their best players suffer injuries year-over-year, and whenever it seems like they take a step forward, they immediately take two or three steps back. I’m done thinking Williamson will ever turn into the no-brainer star I thought he’d be when he entered the draft. Unless Fears or Queen are legitimate miracle workers, I see no reason for optimism in the Pelicans moving forward.
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