There is an asteroid approximately the size of a building that has been on the radar of many astronomers for a long time due to its initial potential to collide with the Earth.
However, there is no need to worry anymore, as its trajectory has shifted slightly since it was first detected. It is now expected to miss the Earth entirely, although the bad news is that it will hit the moon.
The so-called 2024 YR4 asteroid, discovered at the end of last year, was expected to hit planet Earth on December 22nd, 2032. However, according to a CNN report, the chance of that impact changed with every new observation, peaking at 3.1 per cent in February. As reported by Euro Weekly News at the time, astronomers still believed there was a slight chance the asteroid would hit Earth and potentially destroy a city.
When it was scientifically calculated that it would hit our planet, the space rock took on the ranking of the riskiest asteroid ever observed. With that threat being imminent, astronomers utilised ground and space-based telescopes to narrow in on it.
Ground- and space-based telescope observations were crucial in helping astronomers narrow in on 2024 YR4’s size and orbit. Their conclusions, based on dozens of observations that provided more precise measurements, allowed researchers to rule out the possibility of it hitting Earth.
YR4 is still a threat to Earth
The latest observations of the asteroid in June, before the giant rock disappeared from view, have improved astronomers’ knowledge of its location over the past seven years by almost 20 per cent, according to NASA.
That data reveals that even with Earth avoiding direct impact, YR4 could still pose a threat in late 2032 by colliding with the moon.
The impact would be a once-in-a-lifetime event for humanity to witness — but it could also send fine-grained lunar debris flying toward our planet.
While Earth would not face significant physical danger, there is a chance that any astronauts or infrastructure on the lunar surface at that time could be at risk, and so could satellites orbiting our planet that we depend on to keep vital aspects of life, including navigation and communications, running smoothly.
“We’re starting to realise that maybe we need to extend that shield a little bit further,” said Dr. Paul Wiegert, a professor of astronomy and physics at the University of Western Ontario. “We now have things worth protecting that are a bit further away from Earth, so our vision is hopefully expanding a little bit to encompass that.”
It was dubbed the ‘city killer’
The menacing spacerock appears as just a speck of light through even the strongest astronomical tools, but in reality, it is approximately 60 metres (about 200 feet) in diameter.
“Size equals energy,” said Julien de Wit, associate professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who observed YR4 with Webb. “Knowing YR4’s size helped us understand how big of an explosion it could be.”
The YR4, colloquially dubbed a “city killer” after its discovery, could cause regional devastation if it did collide with Earth, so it’s good news that it’s not headed our way.
The collision of YR4 with the moon could create a bright flash that would be visible with the naked eye for several seconds, according to Wiegert.
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