Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Yu Darvish (SDP) @ STL (L) – 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 69 pitches.
Things have not gone as planned for Yu Darvish. His first three outings came with 9 ER in 13.1 IP and yesterday’s 3.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 69 pitches (L) against the Cardinals was a dagger into the hearts of trusting managers. What is going on here?
First and foremost, his feel is way off. Darvish is lacking a trusty pitch to throw inside the zone to both sides of the plate, with an overreliance on mediocre sinkers (leaning into a 93/94 mph sinker with 14″ of horizontal break 32% of the time is an odd choice given his wide arsenal). He featured just two 91 mph cutters and the slider, sweeper, and curve were simply not the pitches he’s relied on for so long.
However, two pitches were the real problem here – two sweepers swatted for three-run HRs. The first was a 1-0 pitch to a LHB that was horrific, the other a decent sweeper away to a RHB that was a bit unfortunate. Remove those, and he could have survived.
But that’s not completely fair, right? Darvish didn’t have a go-to pitch. He didn’t overpower, have a reliable strike pitch, a band of velocity and movement to keep batters on their toes per usual, and now he has to get the Mets and Diamondbacks. I’m not saying he won’t click in August, I’m saying it might not be worth it to hold hoping that he does.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Eric Lauer (TOR) @ DET (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 97 pitches.
I watched this and, uh, what is up with the Tigers? Some horrific swings on pitches, little punishment on many pitches over the plate, and Lauer simply is not this good. Koufax is a kind soul, sure, but you can’t believe this will last…right? Maybe take the chance with Lauer if he’s still in the rotation on July 29th, but Coors + @LAD follow and I don’t think Lauer is anything more than a streamer for the next one.
Logan Evans (SEA) @ LAA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! There’s your Gold Star with a shocking dub for Evans with decent marks across the board (okay fine, three strikeouts and a 1.20 WHIP isn’t embraced). I didn’t see anything new here, just Koufax being a solid fella. Even the sweeper that went 7/22 called strikes had just a 55% strike rate.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
You know, I was more conflicted than usual here with Severino given the RHB-heavy lineup, but he simply hasn’t come through before and the Astros have thrown more LHB out there. WHY DIDN’T YOU SAY SOMETHING. Because I thought it was foolish! The sweeper worked to RHB, the sinker jammed inside and opened up the four-seamer away, and the cutter worked well over the plate. And yet, I’m not interested in hosting the Mariners or facing the LHB-heavy Nationals. I’m out.
Charlie Morton (BAL) @ CLE (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 107 pitches.
Ayyyy it worked! Sure, a it’s just a little better than a VPQS, but a dub + seven strikeouts works for me on a highly questionable stream. And look at that, a Gallows Pole with his heater at 95 mph! And 75% strikes with 7/36 whiffs on the curveball! This was a heavy LHB lineup that made it tougher for Morton to do his usual schtick, and I’d feel better moving forward…if it weren’t the Jays and Phils up next. Womp womp. If the curve is still there and he’s 94+ mph, then I’m down for vs. ATH and @HOU after.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs SEA (L) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 96 pitches.
Welp, he’s a HIPSTER and the command wasn’t there. I can’t tell you if I’ve ever seen a game where Kikuchi went 0/30 whiffs on his slider, summoning his internal Kobe (I’ll go 0/30 before I go 0/9), and we’re back to flipping a coing. At least it’s the Rangers next?
Logan Allen (CLE) vs BAL (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
I can see some hoping for a dub or PQS and he literally had it…before returning for the seventh and allowing a baserunner, who scored after his removal. Careful, Icarus. The game plan was four-seamers galore, which I cannot say I expected in the slightest and doesn’t make me thrilled moving forward. We’re talking 72% usage with another 9% for sinkers. Yeah. It’s not a great heater and I’d pass completely.
Jason Alexander (HOU) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 11 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.
You may not see it here, but his changeup is filthy. The pitch earned whiffs to both sides of the plate, ending with 10/36 whiffs on the day at 38% usage. Thing is, his sinker is not. It has average movement at 90 mph and tries to be the foundation for the changeup to thrive. It’s like building a pool on a swamp. You can try, but it won’t work.
Reese Olson (DET) vs TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
This was textbook Careful, Icarus with all five runs coming in the sixth, including a three-run shot and solo shot with two outs. Both were poor secondaries (that hanging slider to Clement was hung more than yesterday’s laundry) and he was so dang close against an elite offense. Keep riding Olson.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 84 pitches.
This game was a bloodbath and a Win despite getting Singled Out and allowing a pair of HRs feels like cheating. And yet, a King Cole, and not a cheap one with just nine other competitors, should outline how Gray has been less fortunate than others going through tough times. Yes, that is two poor outings in a row. No, you shouldn’t do anything rash. He’s just Gray for a bit. The skies will clear.
Game of the Day
MacKenzie Gore vs. Zebby Matthews – I want Gore to demand the AGA tag and Zebby to be the man he’s supposed to be.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
Source link
