“Predator: Badlands” is aiming to sink its teeth into $25 million to $30 million in its North American box office debut.
The sci-fi adventure, starring Elle Fanning, is tracking to earn another $35 million to $38 million internationally for a global debut of $60 million to $68 million. Disney’s 20th Century Studios spent a sizable $105 million to produce the film, not including marketing expenses. Disney is poised to dominate the end-of-year box office with “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” but the studio’s recent releases such as “Tron: Ares” and “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” misfired in theaters.
“Badlands” is the ninth installment in the long-running franchise, which ignited with 1987’s “Predator,” starring Arnold Schwarzenegger as the mercenary known as Dutch. Sequels, reboots and crossover films include 1990’s “Predator 2,” 2004’s “Alien vs. Predator,” 2007’s “Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem,” 2010’s “Predator” with Adrian Brody and 2018’s “The Predator,” led by Boyd Holbrook; they have had varying degrees of box office success. The two prior installments, 2022’s “Prey” and this June’s animated “Predator: Killer of Killers,” didn’t play in theaters and landed on Hulu in the U.S. and on Disney+ in the rest of the world.
“Alien vs. Predator” holds the record for the biggest debut in the series with $38 million, not adjusted for inflation. “Badlands” could secure the second-largest start in the franchise as long as ticket sales can surpass “Predators” and “The Predators,” each of which bowed to roughly $24 million. Most of the “Predator” films have been rated R, so Disney is hoping that “Badlands” has a broader theatrical reach with its PG-13 rating.
Dan Trachtenberg, who helmed “Prey” and “Killer of the Killers,” returned to direct the standalone story about an outcast alien hunter (Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi) and his unlikely ally (Fanning) who embark on a dangerous journey to defeat a menacing adversary. Reviews could help in terms of word-of-mouth for the newest “Predator” adventure, which critics have praised as an entertaining popcorn film. Variety’s Peter Debruge called “Badlands” the “most interesting — and the strongest film with ‘Predator’ in the title since the 1987 original.”
Several movies that cater to older crowds or skew arthouse, including Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s psychodrama “Die My Love,” historical drama “Nuremberg,” Sydney Sweeney’s boxing biopic “Christy” and Amazon MGM’s inspirational true story “Sarah’s Oil,” will open in roughly 1,000 theaters, though none are expected to crack $5 million over the weekend.
“Predator: Badlands” is this weekend’s only major release, so it’ll easily top the box office, which has been especially sluggish since the end of summer. Last weekend was especially brutal; the distraction of Halloween and a lack of new releases resulted in the slowest frame of the entire year. With a pileup of flops including “Tron: Ares” and “The Smashing Machine,” revenues for the month of October plunged to a 28-year low.
Later in November, Lionsgate’s heist thriller “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” and Edgar Wright and Glen Powell’s “The Running Man” remake will join the fray. But attendance won’t get a major boost until Disney’s “Zootopia 2” and Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” land on the big screen around Thanksgiving.
“There are some sure-fire blockbuster movies on the way,” predicts Comscore’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian. “And we will most certainly see the momentum swing back in the right direction.”
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