Experts predict bitcoin is “in for a choppy November”

Uptober was a wash, and now bitcoin is starting November on a tepid note. While November is historically bitcoin’s best month, whether it’ll become “Nopevember” or “Moonvember” hinges on several macro and geopolitical factors, analysts say.

Bitcoin is starting the first week of the month around $108,000, down 14% from its October 6 all-time high. Bitcoin ETFs suffered $798.9 million in outflows last week, bringing inflows for the month to $3.42 billion — lower than September’s $3.53 billion, according to SoSoValue.

Bitcoin might be able to turn things around from the disappointing October, but “we’re in for a choppy November,” Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News.

“There’s ongoing pressure on the macro side, with the US government shutdown still unresolved and therefore insufficient economic data for the Federal Reserve to base its next interest rate decision on. And the odds of a December rate hike have dropped sharply. This will, no doubt, continue to weigh on sentiment,” he said.

Puckrin added that eventually the selling will stop, and when it does, the fundamentals remain the same: quantitative tightening is coming to an end, liquidity is beginning to flow, and global currencies are facing further devaluation.

Other experts echoed the sentiment, noting that November might be a period where “optimism and fragility coexist,” as the asset is becoming very news-dependent.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR, told Sherwood that the market structure remains fragile, and a 10% move in either direction could trigger massive liquidations — roughly $11.39 billion in short positions if the price rises, or $7.55 billion in longs if it falls.

“Any change in the Fed’s tone or a new round of geopolitical tension could dramatically shift the balance of power,” he said.

Ehsani said that this month, bitcoin is likely to remain in the $107,000 to $113,000 range. While bitcoin retains potential for recovery, the market remains in a state of anticipation, between the fear of missing out on growth and the fear of a new pullback.

Finally, another pain point for bitcoin would be continued ETF outflows, which “would likely pressure spot toward the $103,000–$100,000 bands,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

“This is a market in digestion: structural bulls remain present, but short-term conviction is low and the price needs fresh, reliable spot demand,” he said.