Week 10 offers real tests for a handful of College Football Playoff contenders. Throughout Saturday’s slate, Sports Illustrated will give an updated look at the playoff seeding and matchups. Here’s everything you need to know about the current CFP race:
Update at 11:30 p.m. ET Saturday:
You just knew the ACC was ready to embrace the chaos and boy did it ever Saturday. Miami played itself out of the playoff, Georgia Tech suffered an unforgivable loss on the road to NC State and both Virginia and Louisville struggled to put away opponents on the road. As a result, the conference went from tracking for two bids to the playoff, to handing another at-large spot to the SEC.
Right now there’s a glut of two-loss teams in the conference where it just means more and for now that is going to result in Oklahoma ever so slightly getting the nod as the last team into the field—even over an undefeated team like BYU. The Cougars have only one tenuous victory over a Top 25 team while Oklahoma has several and played a nonconference schedule with a pulse. It will be quite the interesting debate for the committee on Tuesday either way.
Update at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday:
Diego Pavia does not get to go out to Sixth Street to celebrate a win after Vanderbilt suffers its second loss of the season on the road at Texas. The Commodores had a furious fourth-quarter rally but that wasn’t enough to prevail, giving life to the Longhorns’ CFP hopes and taking the folks from Nashville out of the backet. Their loss is Notre Dame’s gain however as that allows the Irish to move up into the top 12 ahead of the selection committee’s first set of rankings on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, Miami’s struggles seem to have continued with their first trip out of the Sunshine State resulting in an overtime loss at SMU. Mario Cristobal’s team had a terrific start to the season, but they’ve now suffered two conference losses that may well cost them another trip to the CFP. Right now they slide out of the bracket and open up a spot for undefeated BYU, shifting the ACC from a multi-bid league to a single-bid conference at the same time.
Update at 11 p.m. ET Friday:
It sure seems like the American really loves to pass the Group of 5 bid baton around each week given the number of upsets we’ve seen lately. First it was South Florida, then it was Memphis and this week it was Tulane. None of those teams is out of the running yet, and North Texas also lurks in the background, but it is becoming quite the interesting race as we go into the final weekend without CFP selection committee rankings to factor in.
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- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Mississippi
- Oregon
- Texas Tech
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma
- Virginia
- South Florida
The Bulls split their two toughest games in league play but still have two tricky matchups coming with UTSA and a trip to Navy. They’re back in pole position for the conference title and CFP bid but can’t overlook the next month and making an impression on the committee. As for Kirby Smart’s team, they’ve now trailed in the second half of five of their six SEC games—including on Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla., against a pesky Florida team. The Bulldogs need help to make the SEC title game at the moment but may be better served getting a home game in Athens, Ga., against the Group of 5 bid team.
Georgia Tech’s loss to NC State has opened the door for Virginia to sneak into the playoff field as the ACC’s lone representative. The Hoos get the advantage thanks to their head-to-head win over Louisville despite the Cardinals having just as solid of a résumé. As for the Rebels, they took care of business at home against South Carolina and are maybe one more SEC win away from truly locking up their spot in the playoff.
The Ducks are really sitting pretty now to host a CFP game at Autzen Stadium thanks to losses all around them. They would be delighted to host the Sooners given the two programs’ history against each other. This is a pure résumé play for Oklahoma as its nonconference win over Michigan remains a quality victory and it has a shot to keep separating from the pack of two-loss SEC teams if it can keep winning following the trip to Tennessee.
The Irish probably would have been better served by seeing Miami win out to help their résumé, but it might not matter if they keep rolling right along against overmatched opponents. As for the Red Raiders, the only thing standing in their way of the Big 12 title might be BYU next week in Lubbock.
Interesting exercise: What would have to happen for the Tide to get left out of the CFP at this point? Losing two of their final three SEC games, despite LSU and Oklahoma coming to Tuscaloosa? Even then, the victories over Georgia, Vandy, Missouri and Tennessee might still give them a shot at 9–3.
Quite the week for the Aggies where they not only got one of the biggest victories in recent memory in Baton Rouge, but also appear to have caused an incredible crisis of confidence at LSU in the process.
The most interesting debate the selection committee could have next week is if Indiana should be the No. 1 team in the country over Ohio State given its better wins, or if it should actually be behind Texas A&M given the strength of the Aggies’ record.
Rebuilding year? Pffft. This is the best team in the country by the eye test after another dominating win over Penn State. The résumé might not matter, but you can lock up the Buckeyes in the bracket no matter what happens against Michigan and Indiana.
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