Vikings vs. Lions Week 9 preview: 4 key stats coming out of the bye

Sunday afternoon’s battle doesn’t carry quite the same gravity as last year’s Week 18 clash for the NFC’s top seed. Still, coming off the bye — with the Minnesota Vikings returning to their planned starting quarterback of the future, J.J. McCarthy, and getting healthier across the board — this becomes a pivotal home game for the Lions as they enter a stretch of seven straight NFC matchups.

While Minnesota has dropped three of its last four (and two straight), Kevin O’Connell’s team has had extra time to prepare following their Week 8 Thursday night game and could finally be close to full strength. Both offensive tackles — Christian Darrisaw (who left Weeks 5 and 8 early) and Brian O’Neill (who missed both those contests) — are expected back, along with standout edge rusher Andrew Van Ginkel (out since Week 3). Linebacker Blake Cashman and safety Harrison Smith also returned in Week 7, bolstering the defensive core.

With Brian Flores’ defense nearing full health, this shapes up to be a formidable test for Jared Goff and a Lions offense that has historically had Flores’ number. Detroit has scored 30-plus points in five straight wins over Flores-led defenses dating back to 2022.

This preview examines four key statistics that could determine whether the Lions can keep that streak alive against a potentially rejuvenated Vikings squad.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, TruMedia, FTN Fantasy, or Pro Football Reference and exclude garbage time.

Brian Flores’ trademark defensive aggression continues to define the Vikings’ identity. Since taking over in 2023, his units have ranked among the NFL’s most blitz-reliant each season — leading the league at 51.9% in 2023, finishing 2nd at 43.8% in 2024, and currently pacing the NFL again at 46.9% through seven games.

Beyond their outside linebackers — Van Ginkel, Dallas Turner, and Jonathan Greenard, who are primarily pass rushers but also drop into coverage — the Vikings get creative pressure from a rotating cast of blitzers. Linebackers Eric Wilson (47 pass rush snaps), Ivan Pace Jr. (36), and Blake Cashman (20) all contribute, as does hybrid safety Josh Metellus (12). Pace Jr. has been especially disruptive, ranking 6th among off-ball linebackers with a 31.3% pressure rate, while Metellus’ 25.0% rate ranks 15th among safeties.

When blitzing, Minnesota’s results have been a mixed bag:

The Vikings still generate pressure, but their blitzes haven’t created quite the same level of chaos as they did in previous seasons. Not all teams had even been susceptible to their blitz, however.

Few teams have been more immune to Flores’ blitz-heavy style than the Lions. Over their last four meetings across the past two seasons, Detroit has shredded Minnesota’s pressure looks:

In that two-year span, amongst Vikings opponents, the Lions rank top-10 in every category against the Vikings blitz — and top-three in most. They’ve consistently built smart protection plans and route concepts to neutralize Flores’ exotic looks.

Jared Goff, meanwhile, remains one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks against extra rushers this season:

Detroit’s offense has stayed elite at punishing blitzes, and that could be a major deciding factor. If Goff and offensive coordinator John Morton can continue to expose Flores’ pressure packages, the Lions are well-positioned to keep the upper hand in this rivalry. Look for the Lions to turn that pressure into points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown scored his first career touchdown — the last-second, game-winning catch against the Vikings in Week 13 of his rookie season — to seal Dan Campbell’s first victory as head coach. He hasn’t looked back since.

In eight career games against Minnesota, St. Brown has averaged 91 receiving yards per game, including 109.8 per game in the two seasons since Brian Flores took over the Vikings’ defense. He’s been downright unguardable, repeatedly shredding Flores’ aggressive schemes as Jared Goff’s most trusted outlet against the blitz.

Against the Vikings blitz the last two seasons (four games), St. Brown has recorded:

That translates to 88 yards and five first downs per game — just against the blitz. St. Brown’s ability to recognize coverage rotations and snap into open space has been central to Detroit’s success against Flores’ pressure packages.

With the Vikings deploying zone coverage on 72.6% of dropbacks (fourth-highest in the league), St. Brown’s knack for finding soft spots — especially when defenders vacate zones to rush — will be pivotal to keeping drives alive and preventing negative plays.

This offseason, the Vikings made a surprising financial commitment to their interior defensive line. Beyond investing in offensive line upgrades (which we’ll touch on below), they shelled out serious money for defensive tackles — signing Jonathan Allen to a three-year, $51 million deal and Javon Hargrave to a two-year, $30 million contract. Yet those big-ticket additions haven’t produced the desired dominance. Jalen Redmond has arguably been their most consistent interior presence, while Hargrave has logged just 40 total snaps over the past two games, and the defense has struggled against heavy personnel rushing attacks.

The Lions, meanwhile, have leaned hard into that exact formula. Detroit ranks second in the NFL with 97 carries from 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) and fourth with 25 carries from 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends) — often including those looks with an extra offensive lineman reporting as eligible for one of the tight ends.

Lions rushing from 12- and 13-personnel in 2025:

While Detroit leads the league in volume, their efficiency metrics sit just outside the top ten — a sign that the blocking execution and timing could still improve. Sunday’s matchup presents an opportunity to do just that.

On the other side, Minnesota’s defense has been getting bludgeoned by these same looks. The Vikings have faced 16.2 rushes per game from 12- and 13-personnel, the most in the NFL.

Vikings defense vs. 12- and 13-personnel:

The Vikings have proven vulnerable when opponents pack extra tight ends or linemen into the formation and simply outmuscle them at the point of attack. Expect the Lions to test that weakness early — relying on their heavier sets to displace defenders, clean up their missed assignments, and let Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery grind them into dust.

Despite thriving offensively last season, and finishing 14-3, the Vikings couldn’t keep their quarterback upright — allowing 49 sacks (t-23rd) and a 38.2% pressure rate (27th). Protecting the passer became a top offseason priority, leading to a rebuild up front. Minnesota signed center Ryan Kelly (now on IR with a concussion) and right guard Will Fries from the Colts, while drafting left guard Donovan Jackson in the first round.

But as Lions safeties coach Jim O’Neil noted this week, “You’re not going to be evaluated by your starters. You’re going to be evaluated by how your backups play.” The Vikings have learned that the hard way. Through eight weeks, Fries is the only Minnesota lineman to log at least 70% of the team’s offensive snaps, with injuries hitting Kelly, Jackson, and both standout tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill. In total, 10 different linemen have played at least 75 snaps, and seven have made three or more starts — a revolving door that’s wrecked continuity and rhythm.

That instability has directly impacted the passing game. Both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz have been under constant siege.

Vikings pass protection this season:

That last number — 28% of pressures turning into sacks — is historically bad, ranking as the 7th-worst mark of the past decade (out of 320 team-seasons). Both quarterbacks have struggled to navigate pressure:
• McCarthy: 40.9% pressure-to-sack rate (worst among 40 QBs with 40+ pass attempts)
• Wentz: 24.4% (35th)

It’s even uglier on third down, where the Vikings’ pressure-to-sack rate jumps to 40.5%, the worst in the last five years and second-worst in the last decade — all while defenses blitz on just 20.2% of dropbacks (5th-lowest rate in the NFL).

The Lions’ pass rush, meanwhile, has been one of the most efficient in football — 38.6% pressure rate (10th) and 8.6% sack rate (5th) — led by Aidan Hutchinson, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and now the return of Alim McNeill. Against an offensive line this banged-up and a first-year starting quarterback (third career start) prone to holding the ball, Detroit’s front should have a field day collapsing the pocket and derailing Minnesota’s rhythm.