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In my experience, there’s only one topic that can reliably fill an entire mailbag: conference realignment. But this week, I could have easily done so with Penn State/James Franklin questions. Or their logical offshoot: Indiana/Curt Cignetti questions.
Stew: Has Matt Rhule done enough at Nebraska to justify his front-runner status for the Penn State opening? — Mitch
Well, let’s put it this way. If Rhule had no previous ties to Penn State, and if athletic director Pat Kraft hadn’t hired him at Temple, would a coach who’s lost 18 straight games to Top 25 opponents even show up on the candidate lists for this job?
Of course not. Rhule has made steady progress rebuilding Nebraska, just like he did in his previous two college jobs (Temple and Baylor). But Penn State is not a rebuilding job. The program was in the College Football Playoff semifinals last year. The new coach likely gets a year’s grace, but by Year 2 will be expected to contend for national championships. Rhule, with his 2-23 Top 25 record, has not demonstrated he’s any more capable of that than Franklin. Maybe that changes by season’s end, but so far in Year 3, Nebraska has played two good-but-not-great teams, Cincinnati and Michigan, and gone 1-1.
Of course, the inherent risk of firing a coach who won 70 percent of his games is there aren’t a lot of obvious upgrades out there. National champion coaches Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney and Ryan Day aren’t going to State College. Nor are Kalen DeBoer, Marcus Freeman or Dan Lanning. If Kraft is truly interested in conducting a real coaching search rather than handing the job to his buddy, he may have to just go by which realistic candidate inspires the most confidence.
Here are a few that give me confidence.
• Curt Cignetti. For obvious reasons.
• Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. He coaches at a school with far less history and fewer resources than Nebraska and no real inherent advantages over Baylor, yet he has a far-more respectable career 15-28 Top 25 record, including a 4-6 record against top-10 teams with the Cyclones — the same number of top-10 wins as Franklin at Penn State in 15 fewer chances.
• Tennessee’s Josh Heupel. That guy can coach, man. Tennessee hadn’t been nationally relevant in 15 years before he got there, but the Vols finished in the top 10 two of the past three seasons and could reach a second straight CFP berth. Top 25 record: 12-14 (11-11 at Tennessee). Don’t know if he’d be interested, though I’d contend it’s easier to make regular CFP appearances at Penn State, playing a top-heavy Big Ten schedule, than at Tennessee.
After that … it’s all risk. Which is not to say Lane Kiffin or Eli Drinkwitz or Jedd Fisch can’t win big there, but nor are any of their resumes more distinguished than the guy they’d be replacing.
Indiana currently has a 91 percent chance of making the Playoff (according to Austin Mock’s projection model). Will PSU (or ANY school) wait for Cignetti? And does the 12-team CFP change who are realistic candidates moving forward? For example, if Memphis makes the CFP, does that eliminate Ryan Silverfield? — Mitchell S.
I’m glad someone asked this, because it’s definitely going to come up in the coaching carousel. The only reason it didn’t last year was because so few jobs opened up.
Think about 2021, when LSU hired Brian Kelly the week leading into Selection Sunday, even though 11-1 Notre Dame was sitting at No. 6 in the CFP rankings. There was some concern, though proven unwarranted, that the Irish could move into the final top four, with him already off to LSU. In a 12-team CFP, though, we’d have already known the Irish were in. Kelly might still be at Notre Dame were that the case, and Marcus Freeman might still be a defensive coordinator somewhere. (Ohio State?)
A year ago, I would have said definitively that no school would wait until Dec. 19 at the earliest to make its hire. Not when the transfer portal opened 10 days before that. But with the start of the portal window shifting to Jan. 2, only four teams will still be competing in the Playoff by then. In theory, if Penn State felt confident Cignetti would say yes, it could hold the job open and hope Indiana gets eliminated by the quarterfinals. Shades of 2006-07, when Alabama athletic director Mal Moore waited out Miami Dolphins coach Nick Saban for five weeks, even after he publicly declared, “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach,” finally hiring him Jan. 3.
But that was such a different time. For one thing, coaches didn’t get fired in October. Is Penn State really going to go nearly two months without a permanent coach? Also, social media was barely a thing during Saban Watch. I cringe at the thought of a full month of fake accounts, hourly flight tracking, people saying they saw the guy’s wife looking at houses, etc. And it would be a huge distraction for the coach trying to prepare his team for the Playoff.
The more likely scenario is Cignetti or another coach in his position takes himself out of the running. Which, if that’s the case, means some of the most sought-after coaches in any given cycle might be out of the running by default. Which, if so, is bad news for schools such as Penn State and Florida.
I’ll be curious to see how that dynamic plays out this year. Maybe the end result will be that schools go from firing coaches in the middle of the season to schools waiting until January to fire their coach so that they can hire whoever they want.
Stew: You seem to have an opinion (or $200 million of them) on whopping buyouts of coaches. So, play AD at Nebraska or Indiana or any of the other schools that employ a leading candidate for the Penn State job. Would you give Curt Cignetti an extension to ensure he stays, or conversely, hold your ground and risk him leaving? It’s one thing to look back at such foolishness when it doesn’t work out. What’s your view looking forward? — Jeffrey J.
Great question, because you’re right. It may seem like a no-brainer at the moment for Indiana AD Scott Dolson to give another ginormous raise to Cignetti only a year after the last one. But what if Cignetti follows the path of Tom Allen (who himself got a $15.5 million buyout) and the Hoosiers nosedive following this two-year run? Dolson may be looking back three years from now kicking himself at the price tag.
On the other hand, if he doesn’t do it, and Cignetti leaves, Dolson might not have a job in three years.
The only way this cycle is ever going to end is if schools shift from a contract structure in which the coach’s compensation is based almost entirely on his past performance, to a more incentive-driven model in which the coach’s compensation is tied at least in part to his future performance. This is fairly standard for executives in other industries, where their guaranteed base salary is modest (relatively speaking) but the potential upside, tied to company goals like sales and stock price, is enormous.
Think about how that might work for a college football coach. Say I want to hire away Kiffin from Ole Miss. He currently makes $9 million a year with a contract that runs through 2030 and has a $37 million buyout, around 80 percent the amount remaining. To even consider coming, he’s going to want a raise, at least a seven-year contract and a higher guarantee. Say I agree to pay him $12 million a year for seven years ($84 million), and guarantee 90 percent of it. If he goes 4-8, 2-10 and 3-9 the first three years, not only did I flush $36 million down the toilet, I still owe him another $43 million.
What if I offer him a six-year deal at $10 million a year ($60 million), with only 33 percent guaranteed ($20 million max)? But for each year he makes the CFP, he gets a $10 million bonus, and if he wins a national championship, he gets a $25 million bonus. If over those six years, he goes to three CFPs and wins a national title, he’s going to make $115 million, more than double what he’d get if he stays at Ole Miss for the same period. But if he’s a total flop, I only have to pay $6.66 million to cut bait after three years.
The problem is, for this concept to take off, someone has to go first, and no one wants to be the guy who scares off the school’s top choice and/or loses their beloved guy (like Cignetti) for trying something so unorthodox. But if anyone might be willing to make that kind of bet on himself, the guy who said, “I win. Google me,” seems like an ideal choice.
If not UCLA, James Franklin ends up at Stanford, right? —Reggie C.
I’m pretty sure Franklin’s employer in 2026 will have a different acronym. Think ESPN. Or NBC. Or Fox.
(Yes, I realize that last one is not an acronym.)
Update: Some commenters informed me after publication that ESPN and NBC are not acronyms, they are initialisms. I must confess I had never before heard that term.
Midseason redo: name 1-2 top 15 teams who won’t end up in the upper half of the polls at season’s end; conversely which 1 to 2 teams not currently ranked make the biggest jump before the Playoff? — Sir T.
I absolutely love midseason predictions. It gives me a chance to be doubly wrong every year.
Top 15 teams that fall:
No. 10 LSU: The biggest sign LSU may be ranked too high is that it’s an underdog this week at Vanderbilt. Blake Baker’s defense is outstanding, but I don’t know how much longer the Tigers can keep winning with a non-existent running game and a turnover-prone quarterback. Especially with Texas A&M and Alabama still ahead.
No. 14 Oklahoma: It may not be possible for both these teams to plummet because they play each other at the end of the year. But they’re kind of identical teams right now with the same problems, and OU has a much tougher schedule remaining: No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 6 Alabama, No. 16 Missouri and No. 10 LSU.
Unranked that move up:
Washington: The 5-1 Huskies’ one loss was to the No. 1 team (Ohio State). Demond Williams Jr. is one of the most dangerous QBs in the country and only getting better. Jonah Coleman leads the FBS in rushing TDs (11). If they can pull off an upset at Michigan this weekend, they vault into CFP contention.
Duke. Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils stumbled out of conference against Illinois and Tulane, but they’ve averaged 42.7 points in their three ACC wins (NC State, at Syracuse, at Cal). I bet they knock off either No. 12 Georgia Tech or Clemson in the next two weeks and get back on course for a 9-3/top 20-type finish.
Washington QB Demond Williams Jr. ranks third in the FBS in total offense per game. (Kevin Ng / Imagn Images)
Do you still believe Indiana can’t win a national championship? —Martin D.
I knew I would get this question.
I did not consider the possibility in late September that, within three weeks of declaring it impossible to win a national championship at Indiana — ever — that the Hoosiers would suddenly look capable of winning a national championship this season. It’s quite the predicament.
I’m not going to reverse course just yet, mostly because it seems unwise to blow up my entire conception of the sport midway through a season, but I will say this: I’d be thrilled to be proven wrong.
Indiana winning a national championship would be the most remarkable story in the modern history of college football. This is not a sport dripping with Cinderella stories, and, in fact, there are pockets of this country, particularly in the SEC, that seem to actively loathe when a Boise State or SMU or Indiana dares infringe on their sacred 9-3 teams.
Nine times out of 10, those upstarts eventually hit their ceiling, as Indiana did last year. And then we rinse and repeat.
If Indiana, a school that holds the second-lowest all-time winning percentage (.426) among Power 4 schools (ahead of only Wake Forest), can pull this off, then truly anyone can do it in this new landscape.
Which is why, as of this moment, I still believe it can’t be done.
I say that despite being fully convinced the 2025 Hoosiers can beat anyone in the country this season. They are clearly much better along the lines of scrimmage than they were last season. As I originally wrote, winning three straight games in January against top-10 teams requires a level of depth that teams like Ohio State and Alabama almost always have, and where teams like Indiana are at a perpetual disadvantage.
As of today, IU reminds me a lot of the 2023 Michael Penix Jr. Washington team, which was very talented, very well-coached and played with such swagger. The Huskies made it all the way to the last night of the season before running into a Michigan team with 20 NFL draft picks (and counting).
If Indiana just reaches the title game, even if it then loses 65-7, it would still be the most remarkable story in the modern history of college football.
What would August Stew say to October Stew about the current AP poll? — Sean M.
Why didn’t I listen to that voice in my head saying, “Shouldn’t you be more concerned about Texas’s offensive line?”
I can’t believe I talked myself into Dabo Swinney producing an elite team post-transfer portal.
Someone should probably alert AP there’s a typo and Penn State got omitted.
Notre Dame is ranked in the teens in the polls, out of the Top 25 by the general public, but in the top five by the computers. Where do you think they stand? — Sesame C.
Nobody wants to hear this, but Notre Dame is still very good. CJ Carr is now averaging 10.3 yards per attempt, tied for second in the country behind only USC’s Jayden Maiava. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are the nation’s top running back tandem this side of Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts. And the defense appears to be improving every week. That veteran secondary that got humiliated against Texas A&M is playing more like we expected. Notre Dame has picked off 11 passes.
But yes, the Irish lost twice. To the current No. 2 (Miami) and No. 4 (Texas A&M). By a combined four points. You are what your record says you are, so I get why they’re only No. 13 in the AP poll. But context matters. No other team besides Illinois has played two opponents of that caliber, the Illini got blown out by both of theirs. The team one spot above Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, is undefeated, but has played zero teams currently in the Top 25.
Computer ratings are designed to be predictive, and unlike pollsters, they’re not measuring resumes, but rather the strength of performance relative to the schedule teams have played. So, the fact the Irish are in the top five in those is noteworthy. The one caveat I’d note, though, is the preseason projections haven’t completely fallen out of those numbers yet. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Notre Dame would be 11th in SP+ if all previous data was stripped out.
I said at the time that Notre Dame will be a lock for the Playoff if it wins out, and I stand by it, while also conceding the Irish could well get knocked out this weekend. USC’s Maiava and receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane are fully capable of exploiting that secondary the way A&M’s Marcel Reed, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion did back in Week 3. Saturday’s game in South Bend will tell us whether Notre Dame’s defensive improvement is real or a mirage produced by an easier schedule.
I think it’s the former, and if that’s the case, Carr and company should beat the Trojans — and everyone left after that.
I get the numbers, but do Notre Dame and USC fans really have disdain for each other? It doesn’t seem like their fan bases would ever interact in everyday life. — Zach
Oh, they definitely hate each other, and their alums definitely cross paths. You can find them eyeing each other suspiciously in the conference rooms at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, the Tesla charging stations at Oracle, the bar at Mastro’s or the back nine at Newport Beach Country Club.
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