Perfection is dead, long live perfection! With the Buffalo Bills getting outflanked by rival New England, the NFL has no unbeaten teams heading into Week 6. This is the earliest point in the season that’s happened since 2014. The good news for fans of streaks is that the New York Jets are still without a win, and they have to play Denver in London this week, so odds are that will continue for at least one more game.
With upsets keeping divisional races entertaining, Week 6 offers a chance for several surprise teams to solidify their place among the contenders, and for stumbling powerhouses to stop their slides before things get out of hand.
🎛️Don’t turn that dial🎛️
Since 2000, the most kicks ever blocked in a season (punts, field goals, extra points) was 33 in 2002. Through five weeks of this season, we’re halfway there. According to Stathead, there have been three extra points, five punts and an astounding eight field goals batted down, and what once had people reaching for the remote now has them glued to the screen.
Whole divisions have shifted because of it.
The Rams had two kicks blocked by the Eagles, one of which would have been a walk-off field goal in Week 3. Then in Week 5, they had an extra point blocked on their go-ahead touchdown, which allowed the 49ers to send the game to overtime, where Los Angeles eventually lost. Instead of 5-0, they are now third in the NFC West at 3-2.
Green Bay should have three wins and be neck-and-neck with Detroit in the NFC North, but took a tie thanks to Dallas blocking an extra point and returning it for a two-point conversion. The Bears blocked a would-be game-winner against the Raiders, and the Buccaneers’ only loss was by 6 in a game where the Eagles blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown.
Traditionally, once the special teams unit takes the field, the show is over. Now, punts, field goals and extra points are like the mid-credits scene in a Marvel Movie. Stick around, or you might miss the key to the whole story.
The “why” of it all is still up for debate. Kickers are going longer than ever before, and such kicks can change up timing and kick angle. Injuries have swept through the league, and inexperienced or ill-fitting players have been forced into service as special-teams blockers. Kickoff rules changed, so those are no longer viable for special teams reps. Most importantly, many defensive special-teams rushers are first-string players, whereas the blockers tend to be second- and third-string players.
All of those things combined lead us here, the place where we are on pace for 54 blocked kicks this season. The NFL is a machine built to relentlessly search for and exploit market inefficiencies, and the latest battleground is the plays most fans took for granted.
📺What To Watch📺
Bye week: Vikings, Texans
49ers at Buccaneers (CBS)
Behold the unlikely kings of the NFC West, who are unable to accept this award because they’re being kept in isolation for their own protection. The nation watched as San Francisco’s health meter went empty and began flashing Thursday night, but they will stagger into Tampa Bay among the league’s top tier at 4-1.
They remain without Brock Purdy, George Kittle and half of their receiving corps, as well as a litany of other injuries listed below:
But they have banked four wins and theoretically can only get healthier, so whoever is out of surgery in time for kickoff can expect a wild ride, as their hosts have become the league’s premier dealers of dramatic endings.
The Bucs have four wins of their own and a margin of victory of nine total points. They’ve needed a game-winning drive in the final minutes of all of their games and gotten it 80 percent of the time, which is very stressful for them but very entertaining for the rest of us.
Emeka Egbuka has Rookie of the Year just about sewn up already, but *looks around nervously* could … *leans in close to whisper* … could Baker Mayfield be a serious MVP candidate? He just finished off a win in which he went 9-for-11 with 227 yards and two touchdowns on passes over 10 yards, and 8-for-9 for 130 and a score when under pressure.
If Mayfield can get the Bucs past the depleted Niners, they have road games with Detroit and New Orleans before their bye and could very well be 6-2 when they return to action at (presumably) full strength. That feels miles better than 5-3, especially since they have to travel to Buffalo in November and Los Angeles two out of their first three weeks back.
Lions at Chiefs (NBC)
Come for the talent, stay for the chess match. Detroit and KC are two of the most creative and adaptable teams of the decade. The Lions haven’t looked threatened once since their Week 1 loss to Green Bay, and are now embarking on the Hero’s Test part of their journey. The Chiefs managed to beat themselves Monday (13 penalties, four in the final 1:45), but appear to have rediscovered the concept of fun on offense. As a general rule, if the Chiefs’ offense is having fun, everyone else is having a really bad time.
KC is paying off its debt from last season’s 10-0 record in one-score games, but still possesses an offense capable of demoralizing any opponent who comes out flat. With a tougher schedule ahead, Detroit cannot afford to lose its mojo. The Lions offense again leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (+.27), and they’re getting more yards per game off intermediate passes than anyone else. That’s good for them, since the weak spot in the Kansas City defense is located between 10 and 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs allow the fourth-most yards per play on intermediate passes, and their opponents had a .61 EPA per dropback when working that depth before the Jags’ lackluster passing attack brought that down to .43.
The Lions should be able to play their hits against KC, but this is the first time this year they’ll face a coaching staff as creative as their own, and a team as comfortable with changing the script as they are.
Seahawks at Jaguars (FOX)
Jacksonville has taken a circuitous route to 4-1 and has succeeded despite a truly abysmal air attack. Once the lone bright spot for the wayward Jags, Trevor Lawrence is 29th in passer rating, and his EPA per pass is worse than every quarterback but Joe Flacco, Cam Ward and Jake Browning. But credit where it’s due: Liam Coen has Jacksonville making the most of opponents’ mistakes and not wasting the luck that comes their way.
The Jags lead the league in turnover differential at plus-8, and have an NFL-best 10 interceptions to go with four fumbles recovered. Crucially, they have scored six touchdowns and two field goals off those takeaways, and two others ended an opponent’s final drive in one-score games.
That’s the sort of thing teams that start with four wins do, and teams that finish with four wins don’t. With an elite pass defense, a good-enough run defense and a top-eight ground game, Jacksonville will remain very much in the mix as long as they continue to capitalize on the opposition’s mistakes instead of trying to one-up them.
The 3-2 Seahawks have looked like a far more complete team, and Jacksonville has to be green with envy as they watch Sam Darnold’s tape in their planning sessions. The 28-year-old has kept the good times rolling in Seattle, posting the league’s third-best passer rating and fourth-best EPA per dropback.
Week 6 will be determined by Darnold’s downfield outcomes, as he enters the game as the NFL’s best quarterback on passes over 10 yards. He’s gone 32-for-45, with six touchdowns and a passer rating of 143.5 on those throws, but the Jaguars have held quarterbacks to a league low 46.2 passer rating when they go downfield. Seven of their 10 picks have come on passes over 10 yards, and quarterbacks are completing only 41.2 percent of those throws against them.
Rams at Ravens (FOX)
Week 6 seems early to declare a state of emergency for teams of this caliber, but this game sure does feel critically important for both squads, doesn’t it?
The Ravens might be finished with a loss. I said might! It’s always foolish to declare a team led by a two-time MVP in his prime dead before they’re actually in the ground, but math is math, and it is unflinchingly rigid. If the Ravens lose this game, they are 1-5. That means for the remaining 11 games, in the absolute rosiest of circumstances, they can afford to lose two more. They have gone from +700 to win the Super Bowl this preseason to +2000 in Week 6.
No one is sure how big a hole Lamar Jackson can drag the Ravens out of when he returns, but Baltimore is about to test the limit. The primary issue is a defense so torn to pieces by injury that even diehards don’t know half the guys on the field.
Let’s play a game — here are four names, three of which played at least 70 percent of the snaps on defense for the Ravens in their blowout loss to Houston. Can you identify the one name we made up without googling?
- Keyon Martin
- Teddye Buchanan
- T.J. Tampa
- Reuben Lowery III
Hah! They’re actually all real Ravens, and three of them are members of Baltimore’s current secondary.
For Los Angeles, Week 6 carries emotional stakes more than anything else. They should be undefeated, but are instead 3-2 because they blew a 26-7 lead (94.4 percent win probability!) to the Eagles and couldn’t put down the crumbling husk of a 49ers roster led by an increasingly hobbled Mac Jones. They’re third in the division and seem to lack a finishing move when they have the upper hand.
They enter this game 7.5-point road favorites. Catching the Ravens in such a state is a true gift, especially because they have the Jaguars, a bye, then the Saints after this, before a season-defining stretch against the Niners, Seahawks and Bucs. But the Rams seem unwilling to accept such handouts this season.
Steelers vs. Browns (CBS)
The Steelers find themselves running away with the AFC North, and get to play the Bears and Bengals in half of their next six games. Their toughest matchups in that stretch are the Colts and Packers, both of whom they play at home.
Everything is lining up for Pittsburgh, which makes it a perfect time for Cleveland to show up on the schedule. For much of this century, the Steelers haven’t had to worry about the Browns, going 34-6-1 against them in the first two decades. The 2020s have been a different story, and in the last three years, whichever team hosted won.
That would seem to make the Steelers safe, but fewer things are harder to game plan for than a rookie quarterback on a team that’s playing entirely for the future. Hard to take away what an offense is trying to do when even they don’t know what that is yet. Add to that a defensive front that can’t wait to punish Aaron Rodgers if he forgets his limitations (or, more accurately, pretends they don’t exist), and Cleveland has a legitimate chance to keep its rivals from reaching escape velocity.
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