Two Democrats who entered 2025 as favorites in high-stakes statewide races are now watching their campaigns unravel—thanks not to their opponents, but to their own conduct.
In California, Katie Porter’s bid for governor is reeling after two videos surfaced this week showing her berating a staffer and cutting short a tense interview with a local reporter. In Virginia, attorney general hopeful Jay Jones has seen his momentum in the race evaporate over violent, profanity-laced text messages he once sent about a Republican rival and his family.
Both were leading in early polls. Both are now in damage control.
Katie Porter’s Blowups Shift the Race in California
Porter is a former U.S. representative who built a national profile by turning congressional hearings into viral moments. Armed with her signature whiteboard and a sharp command of policy, she became a social media darling during her two terms in the House and a rising star in the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. But her struggles under unscripted pressure have raised questions about whether she’s ready to lead the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The first blow came when raw footage from a CBS Sacramento interview leaked on X, showing Porter threatening to walk out after being pressed on whether she could appeal to Republican voters. “I don’t want to keep doing this. I’m going to call it,” she said, clapping her hands. When the station’s investigative reporter Julie Watts — a well-known and highly regarding local journalist — followed up, Porter replied, “I want to have a pleasant, positive conversation,” objecting to any further questions.
Politico then published a leaked 2021 video showing Porter yelling at a staffer to “get out of my f—ing shot” during a virtual meeting with Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. In the same clip, she complained about not being invited to the White House despite raising “a shit ton of money” for then-President Joe Biden.
The clip, released just a day after her interview clash aired, came as a devastating blow to a campaign already under scrutiny. “This was one of the worst-kept secrets in California politics,” Political strategist Mike Madrid, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump political action committee, told Newsweek.
“Now we’re seeing video evidence of the many stories about how she’s treated people—staff members, journalists, even her ex-husband. There’s a problem here.”
Madrid noted Porter’s congressional office once had a 63 percent staff turnover rate, one of the highest in Congress. “You can get away with that in a big media market like Orange County, but once you’re running for governor, that video plays very differently,” he said.
Dan Schnur, a political analyst and former GOP strategist, said Porter’s past behavior had been reported but never seen in such a high-stakes moment. “When a House member lashes out, people may disapprove but don’t think much about it. When you’re running to lead the fourth-largest economy in the world, voters are going to ask whether you have the temperament to lead,” he told Newsweek.
Other analysts share that concern. David McCuan, a political scientist at Sonoma State University, said the controversies have revived long-standing worries among Democrats about Porter’s ability to lead. “People who’ve worked with her aren’t surprised,” he told Newsweek. “She’s been seen for years as a party of one—brilliant, but often unwilling to collaborate—and that’s a tough sell for someone running to govern a state as complex as California.”
The prediction market Kalshi shows that Porter’s chances of becoming governor next year have plummeted this week from 40 percent to 16 percent. Meanwhile, Senator Alex Padilla has overtaken Porter with a 37 percent chance, up from a 10 percent chance on October 8.
“She’s lost control of the narrative,” McCuan said, adding that Republicans now sense an opening they haven’t had since Arnold Schwarzenegger’s rise two decades ago.
Jay Jones’ Campaign Implodes Over Leaked Texts
While Porter’s campaign is reeling from damaging optics and workplace allegations, across the country in Virginia, Jay Jones faces a scandal of a different order—one rooted in violent rhetoric that has shocked even longtime political allies.
Jones, also a Democrat, was leading the race for attorney general when the National Review published screenshots of private messages he sent in 2022. In one, Jones described a hypothetical scenario where then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert would get “two bullets to the head.” In another, he referred to Gilbert’s wife and children as “breeding little fascists.”
The messages were confirmed by the recipient, Republican Delegate Carrie Coyner, and Jones admitted to sending them. “I am embarrassed, ashamed, and sorry,” he said in a public statement.
President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson all publicly condemned Jones, while Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares’ campaign quickly turned the scandal into attack ads. Polling data show Jones’ support collapsing. A Washington Post–Schar School survey conducted before the leak showed Jones leading Miyares by six points. By the end of that week, an internal poll showed that lead shrinking to just one point, within the margin of error. Republican-backed polling showed Jones falling below 44 percent.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, told Newsweek that the fallout will likely have long-term consequences. “I expect that some Democrats will leave the AG line blank, which reduces the chances that Jones will win,” he said. “Even if he does win this time, Virginia Democrats are unlikely to forget his reckless behavior.”
J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia, was more direct. “If Democrats renominate Jones for anything higher than dogcatcher, they’ll deserve to lose,” he told Newsweek. “Aside from the horrid nature of his texts, it was dumb of him to keep yapping to a Republican. You really can’t fix stupid.”
The Virginia Democratic Party has not called for Jones to drop out, though several prominent figures, including Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, have issued statements denouncing the messages. But Spanberger, who is leading in the governor’s race, refusing to disavow him when given the opportunity in a debate Thursday.
Early voting continues, with more than 350,000 ballots already cast.
Can They Survive?
Both Katie Porter and Jay Jones entered their state races as known quantities with built-in advantages. Porter had name recognition, a viral brand and a donor base made up of small-dollar progressives and support from well-established nonprofits like Emily’s List. Jones had statewide experience, party backing and a demographic edge in a blue-trending state. But those assets are now in jeopardy.
Jones’ path forward is narrower than Porter’s. While both California and Virginia are blue states, Democrats’ registered voter margins in Virginia are far narrower than in California. Polls show Jones’ support eroding, and experts like Farnsworth believe even a win in November won’t erase the damage. “Virginia Democrats are unlikely to forget his reckless behavior,” Farnsworth said. “Party activists will hesitate to give him another chance four years from now, even if he prevails.”
Porter may have more runway to recover, in part because California’s gubernatorial race remains fluid and distant. The primaries are scheduled for June 2026, while the gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026. Mike Madrid agreed, telling Newsweek, “The field is still very wide open. It’s a long time until June, and a lot of people are going to have second thoughts.”
But rivals like former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and former California State Controller Betty Yee are already framing her as unfit for office. Schnur, the GOP strategist, said the question now is whether the backlash has staying power. “The election is months away. The question is whether Porter’s opponents will keep these concerns in the public eye.”
