Before the season, the popular notion would have been that Week 6’s best games were sure to include the Rams visiting the Ravens, and the Packers hosting Joe Burrow and his high-flying Bengals.
Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Burrow is potentially out for the year with turf toe, while Baltimore is 1–4, and Lamar Jackson is uncertain to play for a second consecutive week with a hamstring injury.
With those games on the back burner, others are stepping to the fore. While everyone could have anticipated the Lions and Chiefs being a key matchup, few would have seen the Seahawks and Jaguars being rife with intrigue. Then there’s the Monday night doubleheader featuring Josh Allen and his Bills, looking to get refocused against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons. That’s followed by Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams squaring off in Washington, D.C., and we all know what happened the last time these two played each other.
But we start in Jacksonville, where the Seahawks look to bounce back from a high-scoring defeat against the Buccaneers.
Spread: Jaguars -1.5
Key matchup: Seattle’s passing game vs. Jacksonville’s secondary
Key stat: The Seahawks are first in net yards per attempt at 8.6.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
The Jaguars deserve to be 4–1, and they’re also living a charmed life.
Jacksonville allowed 476 yards on Monday night but beat the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes threw a 99-yard pick-six, and K.C. committed 13 penalties. When the Chiefs weren’t busy beating themselves, they moved the ball throughout the game, including Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 313 yards.
While Sam Darnold isn’t Mahomes, he’s playing at a high level. Seattle tops the NFL with 8.6 net yards per pass attempt while ranking fifth in passing yardage. The Seahawks are leaning on third-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has blossomed into a superstar, with 534 yards and 34 receptions in five games.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is trying to rework its secondary in real time with the Wednesday trade sending corner Tyson Campbell to the Browns for Greg Newsome II. Only five teams have allowed more than the Jaguars’ 250.4 passing yards per game.
Verdict: Seattle 27, Jacksonville 23
Spread: Buccaneers -3
Key matchup: San Francisco’s pass rush vs. Tampa Bay’s pass attack
Key stat: The 49ers have six sacks this season, ranking 30th.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense are rolling. They scored 38 points last week in a win over the Seahawks, a game in which Mayfield went 29-of-33 for 379 yards and two touchdowns. And the Buccaneers were without running back Bucky Irving, and receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan.
Against the Niners, those stars are all expected back, but will it matter? San Francisco is winning, but it’s not because of the pass defense. Last Thursday, Matthew Stafford threw for 389 yards and posted a 111.0 rating, but was undone by horrific special teams play.
Through five weeks, San Francisco has six sacks, better only than the Bears and Panthers. The 49ers are without star edge rusher Nick Bosa, who tore his ACL in Week 3, leaving them to rely on rookie Mykel Williams and a collection of underwhelming veterans. While sacks don’t always paint an accurate picture, San Francisco is also 31st in pressure rate at 10.6%.
If the Niners can’t get to Mayfield, who has been sacked only nine times in five games, it could be a long day for San Francisco.
Verdict: Tampa Bay 30, San Francisco 24
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Key matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs. Detroit’s corners
Key stat: Mahomes is sixth with 1,257 passing yards.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
This game might be a race to 30 points. If that’s the case, the deciding factor will likely be whether the Lions can hold up in coverage against Mahomes.
Detroit will be without its top three corners on the depth chart from when the summer began, including Terrion Arnold, D.J. Reed and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. That doesn’t bode well against the Chiefs, who over the past two weeks have racked up 858 total yards and 65 points against the Ravens and Jaguars.
Lions first-year coordinator Kelvin Sheppard has been blitz-happy, ranking ninth in sending extra rushers (28.8%). If the Chiefs can handle the pressure, Mahomes will have one-on-one opportunities against Avonte Maddox, Rock Ya-Sin and Amik Robertson. It’s a dangerous game, and one that might force Sheppard to play more conservatively.
If there’s ever a game where the Chiefs hand the ball to Mahomes and ask him to throw 40-plus times, this might be it.
Verdict: Kansas City 34, Detroit 31
Spread: Bills -4.5
Key matchup: Buffalo’s run game vs. Atlanta’s rushing defense
Key stat: The Bills rush for 154.4 yards per game, second-best in the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 7:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
What to make of the Falcons? To a lesser degree, what to make of the Bills?
Atlanta took the Buccaneers to the wire, blew out the Vikings, hung 34 points on the Commanders and lost 30–0 to the Panthers. Meanwhile, Buffalo beat the (healthy) Ravens 41–40 to open the season, crushed the Jets, then squeaked by the Dolphins and Saints before losing at home to the Patriots.
On Monday night, expect a heavy dose of James Cook, who has rushed for 450 yards this season, second only to Jonathan Taylor. He’s been the workhorse of a Buffalo offense without a star wideout, taking some pressure off MVP quarterback Josh Allen. It’s also the right strategy against the Falcons, who have allowed 4.6 yards per carry, 23rd in the league.
If Cook can get rolling against Atlanta, that opens up the passing game for Buffalo. The Bills have already been strong in that area as well, throwing for 8.1 yards per attempt, eighth in football.
Verdict: Buffalo 29, Atlanta 23
Spread: Commanders -4.5
Key matchup: Washington’s top-ranked ground game vs. Chicago’s front
Key stat: The Commanders rank first in YPA, and the Bears are last.
Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC
If there’s a bigger mismatch this week than Washington running the ball against the Bears, it’s tough to find.
The Commanders have run all over opponents this season. They’re leading the league in both 5.9 yards per carry and 156.4 rushing yards per game. Of course, quarterback Jayden Daniels helps, with 41.3 rushing yards per game on average.
Chicago has been good in many areas defensively, including third down and pressure rate, but the unit has been a sieve overall. The Bears are 32nd in yards per play against (6.7) and dead-last in YPC allowed (6.1). That’s bad news against a Commanders team that, especially if receiver Terry McLaurin can’t play, is going to run relentlessly with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Daniels.
Coming off their bye, the Bears might have figured out some of their issues, but it’s doubtful they’ll be a completely different defense after one extra week of work.
Verdict: Washington 22, Chicago 20
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