Tropical Storm Jerry became the 10th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday, and it’s forecast to become a hurricane by Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical storm warning is in place for parts of the Leeward Islands, as Jerry is expected to pass near the area this evening and into the night. The NHC also said that the Hurricane Hunters are investigating Jerry. They are a specialized team of scientists and pilots from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Air Force Reserve who are trained to fly aircraft directly into hurricanes and tropical storms to gather data to help meteorologists.
The NHC is also tracking a disturbance in the northern Atlantic, which is 500 miles to the northwest of the Azores. “Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger shear environment,” the NHC said. Its chances of forming into a cyclone over the next week are low.
Meanwhile, forecasters are tracking what’s technically a nor’easter, since the winds will be out of the northeast, which is putting the U.S. East Coast on alert for the potential for coastal flooding, heavy rain and strong winds over the weekend and into early next week. “Parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast could see several inches of rain, gusty winds, significant beach erosion, and prolonged coastal flooding, regardless of tropical development,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “A very stormy weekend could be on tap for parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially if this storm hugs the coast or stalls. The wind and rainstorm will have the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm or subtropical storm as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.”
Where is Tropical Storm Jerry, and what is its path?
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Jerry was located about 175 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
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The storm has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.
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It is moving west-northwest at 18 mph.
“A turn toward the northwest is expected by the evening, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday,” the NHC said.
DaSilva added that “a dip in the jet stream along the East Coast of the United States is expected to help guide Jerry to the north and then curve it out to sea.”
Watches and warnings in effect
The NHC says there is a tropical storm warning in effect for the following areas:
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St. Barthelemy and St. Martin
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Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands
There is a tropical storm watch in effect for:
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Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis and Montserrat
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area tonight and Friday morning.
What are the storm’s expected impacts affecting land?
Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Bermuda, while 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward and U.S. Virgin Islands. With the rainfall comes a risk of flash flooding, the NHC said.
Swells caused by Jerry are likely to bring life-threatening surf and rip current conditions that are affecting the Leeward, Windward and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Then they’re expected to affect the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next few days, the NHC said.
What are the chances Jerry will intensify?
The NHC said Thursday that strengthening is expected in the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday.
A storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with five being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
How is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. We’re currently in the peak of hurricane season, which runs from mid-August through mid-October.
In early August, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters slightly updated the range of expected storms from 13-19 down to 13-18, of which up to five could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms, and there’s about 25% left of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. As of Oct. 9, there have been 10 named storms: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Fernand and Jerry and hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda. The next named storm will be Karen.
How does this Atlantic hurricane season compare to past years?
This year marks the first time since 2015 that a hurricane has not made landfall through the month of September, according to AccuWeather. In years past, the following Atlantic hurricane seasons also went without a single hurricane making landfall in the U.S. through September: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2006, 2002, 2001 and 2000.
“Every hurricane season is different. This hurricane season so far is quite unique, with several close calls for the United States,” DaSilva said. “Erin was a major hurricane that stayed 200 miles off the coast of North Carolina in August. The Southeast was spared from major flooding from Hurricane Imelda in September, thanks in part to the rare Fujiwhara effect. Hurricane Humberto passed within 500 miles of Imelda and helped to pull the smaller storm away from the U.S. coast and out to sea.”
The only named Atlantic storm to make landfall in 2025 was Tropical Storm Chantal, which caused torrential rainfall that triggered record-breaking flooding in North Carolina back in July.
“Hurricane season is far from over. It’s important to remind everyone that the Atlantic hurricane season runs through the end of November. We have been forecasting a more active second half of the hurricane season since the spring,” DaSilva said. “Do not let your guard down. We expect atmospheric conditions that could support tropical storms and hurricanes well into late October and November this year.”
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