Facing the best pitcher in the world over the past 24 months is not ideal when faced with a winner-take-all game. That’s the situation the Seattle Mariners are in, however, with Tarik Skubal on the hill Friday. This will be their fourth matchup against the Detroit Tigers’ ace, needing to find a way to go 4-0 in those games. Skubal’s playoff numbers are brilliant, in keeping with his regular season, but he’s been leaned on more than ever before this season, and unless Seattle ambushes him devastatingly out the gates, the southpaw from Seattle U will surpass his career-high for innings pitched on Friday. What will it take for the M’s to overcome Skubal a fourth time?
Win one came in early April, home in Seattle, with the second during Seattle’s obliteration of the Detroit Tigers just before the All-Star Break. The April game, Seattle’s top of the order looked fairly familiar, but the six through eight were all absent in October.
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Lefty-masher Dylan Moore did just that, starting at third and providing the thump. Both Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena scalded the ball, and Seattle’s patient approach led to eight punchouts but also three walks along with six hits. Skubal’s approach on the day was not surprising, with him attacking Seattle up in the zone with four-seamers, 43 of his 93 pitches being those heaters. He added 11 sinkers, but it’s notable that Skubal averaged 96.7-97.1 mph on those heaters in April. Of note, the weather that day was just 50 degrees, with the roof closed due to the cold and wet, conditions likely to be quite similar to Friday night’s 70% chance of rain and mid-50s forecast.
If Skubal had showcased the same juice he’d had against Cleveland in the Wild Card round, it would’ve been a more daunting task. Skubal threw just six sliders and three curveballs on the day, roughly in keeping with his year-long usage (12% and 3%, respectively). His preeminent secondary was the 30 changeups he wove, which actually became Skubal’s foremost pitch overall by usage on the season at 31%. Both the four-seam and changeup were highly effective, getting whiffs nearly half the time hitters swung, but the M’s scalded the changeup when they did get ahold of it.
The pitch mix is pertinent, because when he took on Seattle again in July, the M’s lineup was largely familiar, but Skubal’s approach shifted.
Looking to outdo his initial outing, Skubal threw a significantly different medley, to even less success. Hurling 29 changeups in his 87 pitches, Skubal averaged essentially identical velocity on his heater and could not create as much swing and miss. His sinker was the ~main heater in this outing, 23 to 21 in terms of sinkers vs. four-seamers, and he added 13 sliders and just a single curveball.
Following a herculean effort in the Wild Card round that saw him throw a career-high 107 pitches, 43 of which were 98+ mph, 12 of which were 100+ mph, there may have been an element of fatigue for Skubal. Still, he was on normal rest Sunday against the M’s, and will be once more Friday, as will Luis Castillo, with George Kirby having an additional fifth day. On Sunday we saw a Skubal still above his season averages, sitting 98.1 mph on his fastballs but down from the 99.1 average he’d mustered against the Guardians.
In that Sunday outing, Skubal re-jiggered his pitch mix again, throwing his most even split of all four primary pitches (no curveballs) to date, with over half of his 97 offerings being heaters (37 four-seams, 22 sinkers). In particular, he attacked the lineup’s only two lefties – Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford, with sinkers, using his four-seam just once against them. One of the great challenges Seattle faces is that, like Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller (as well as George Kirby in years past), Skubal lives in the strike zone. His stuff is so potent that he can get away with it, and thereby avoid walks. Indeed, Skubal’s lone free pass last night gives him now 21 of his 33 starts this year with one or fewer bases on balls allowed. Cleveland and Seattle are the only teams to have forced multiple free passes from the presumed repeat Cy Young.
It’s too much to hope for Skubal to be fatigued, as the mighty lefty will have adrenaline pumping in the early innings at minimum. What Seattle will be hoping to do, however, is continue an impressive trend of avoiding chasing against Skubal. Through their first three games, Seattle has swung at pitches out of the zone 35.1% (April), 23.8% (July), and 33% (October) of the time against Skubal. It’s a meaningful edge on a pitcher whose overall chase rate is 37.6%. Over the course of the game, that’s maybe only a handful of pitches, but the outcomes of playoff games hinge on those sorts of advantages. Seattle’s ability to attack Skubal in the zone, and let him dig a hole outside of it, relative to their opponents, is what may give them a chance to bury him for good this fall.
It’s likely Skubal understood this, fading his changeup usage despite it being his best pitch (and one of the best in the sport) on Sunday in hopes of putting the M’s on the back foot. If I were calling pitches for him, I’d likely lean on the changeup more forcefully regardless on Friday night, as Seattle’s ability to make contact with the sinker and four-seam is not as dangerous on a chilly, wet, October night in T-Mobile Park. For Seattle, an effort to force Skubal into deeper counts is likely the best approach, aggressive early, with defensive, foul-ball swings and takes at the two-strike mark. Detroit’s beleaguered bullpen is fundamentally a weaker unit than Seattle’s – and certainly than Skubal himself – no matter what occurred on Wednesday. It all only matters so much, ultimately – baseball is a game easiest analyzed in the aggregate, with sample sizes of immense heft. On one night in October, anything is possible.
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