Ares’ Eyes $80M-$90M Worldwide Opening

It’s been a while since we’ve had a full-bloodied Hollywood tentpole at the fall box office, and the hope is that Disney’s Tron: Ares is exactly that with an $80M-$90M worldwide start.

Comscore reports that the current fall box office (post Labor Day through this past Sunday) tallies at $673.8M, +$10.8M from the same frame a year ago. While that’s solid news, particularly when compared against last autumn which was dominated by the success of Warner Bros’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($294.1M U.S./$452M WW), the hits we’ve had stateside so far have been ones catering to a niche audience, i.e. Crunchyroll/Sony’s Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle ($125M) and the standalone sole weekend opening of AMC’s Taylor Swift: Official Release Party of a Showgirl ($34M). And, yes, there’s was New Line’s Conjuring: Last Rites at $168.2M U.S./$459.6M WW, which is the highest grossing title in the Safran Company/Atomic Monster horror franchise.

Currently, studio, NRG tracking and advance ticket sales point toward a $40M-$45M domestic opening for Tron: Ares at 4,000 theatres, which continues the cyber saga. This time, rather than getting stuck in a videogame, the Tron AI guys come to Earth in what is a war between two tech companies. Jeff Bridges reprises his series role as Kevin Flynn, the guy who created this alter-tech world war. Jared Leto, who also produces, plays Ares. Former Disney Production Boss Sean Bailey produces with Joachim Rønning directing. The Kon-Tiki Oscar nominated filmmaker has helmed several Disney movies including Young Woman in the Sea, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($491.7M) and the last Pirates movie, 2017’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales ($795.9M).

Advance tickets stateside went on sale on Sept. 4 and have since earned $7M, which is around the same range as Alien Romulus prior to its $42M debut in August 2024. Guys over and under 25 are of course the catch, with female tracking in line with other similar to recent fanboy installments of Planet of the Apes, Transformers and Ghostbusters.

Tron: Ares will have all the advanced capabilities of ticket upcharges i.e. Imax, Dolby, exhibitor premium large format screens, ScreenX, D-Box and 4DX with a strong 3D support. The third Tron movie also has the power of PLFs abroad.

Tron: Ares cycles to all international markets this weekend, save China which goes on October 17 with an overseas launch also between $40M-$45M. Today, majors France and Korea are a go. Thursday adds a host of markets, such as Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy and Mexico. Friday rounds out with UK, Japan, Spain and India among others. Previews in the U.S. and Canada start at 2PM tomorrow.

In regards to overseas opening comps, last year’s Alien: Romulus bowed to $45.5M in overseas like-for-likes and at today’s exchange rates. A high-end comp is 2024’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes which had a $64M like-for-like debut. With 15 years between the previous Tron and this one, Tron: Legacy, is a bit of an older comp, but worth noting that it opened to $39.9M (also in same markets and at current rates). That Joseph Kosinski directed reboot opened to $44M at the domestic box office after a year’s plus of promotion and ended its run at $172M domestic, $400M worldwide off a $170M production cost. Tron: Ares costs $10M more at $180M.

We’re expecting a mix of European majors — Germany is notably tracking very well — and Latin America to lean in the most. The film may face challenges in parts of Asia given general softness toward Hollywood movies of late, and a lack of nostalgia for a feature property that dates back 43 years.

Rønning and cast have been full throttle on a European tour with stops in Malaga, Milan, Berlin, Paris and London. Some stunts have taken place on rooftops à la the one in Piccadilly Circus last week. The Hollywood premiere, which featured a concert performance by the pic’s composers, Nine Inch Nails, was held Monday in an array of red laser light and fans literally showing up with their custom-made Tron: Ares costumes.

Critics have never been a fan of Tron: The original 1982 movie stands at 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with 2010’s Tron’s Legacy at 51%. Tron: Ares is currently at 54% Rotten. Tron: Legacy received a B+ CinemaScore. Nonetheless, the Steven Lisberger created franchise continues at the box office.

Paramount has Miramax’s Derek Cianfrance directed Channing Tatum-Kirsten Dunst romance caper, Roofman, which is expected to come in around $10M at 3,100 theaters stateside. The movie, based on the true story of thief Jeffrey Manchester, follows how he hid in a Toys ‘R Us, fell in love with one of the employees following his series of McDonalds robberies. His technique? Sawing his way into the restaurant via rooftop. The movie before P&A cost $19M. Following its world premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival, Roofman stands at 84% fresh. Tatum movies tend to skew mostly women, his 2022 title Dog attracting 54%. Previews start at 7PM.

Roadside Attractions has the release of Bill Condon’s net $30M-costing Kiss of the Spider Woman starring Jennifer Lopez, Diego Luna and newcomer Tonatiuh. Based specifically on the Broadway version of the John Kander and Fred Ebb musical (which was based on the Manuel Puig novel and the 1985 Oscar winning Hector Babenco directed movie), Kiss of the Spider Woman is expected to do $1.5M-$3.5M opening at 1,300 theaters in U.S./Canada. Mongrel is the sub-distributor for Canada. Understand this about the movie: Roadside Attractions isn’t on the hook for the $30M-plus budget, nor was this full-on acquisition. The movie is a distribution deal for RSA which gets a flat fee and percentage of box office. LD Entertainment is handling the P&A which is under $10M, I hear. LD Entertainment gets paid first. AGC Studios handled foreign rights while WME handled domestic. The movie following its world premiere at Sundance stands at 80% fresh with critics. Previews in the U.S. start at 1PM.