Sunday’s matchup with the Buccaneers is a big one for the San Francisco 49ers. Tampa Bay is coming off a thrilling, shootout victory over the Seattle Seahawks, and the 49ers shocked the world on Thursday night with a massive divisional win over the Rams. Now, both 4-1 teams meet while tied for the best record in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield has been playing the best football of his career through five weeks. Emeka Egbuka is the latest budding superstar receiver from Ohio State. The Buccaneers’ offense is seventh in the NFL with 135 total points scored. Without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving, the Bucs offense didn’t skip a beat on Sunday.
The 49ers’ defense has allowed 98 points through five weeks (tied with the Chargers), but the pass rush and pass defense have suffered with the injury to Nick Bosa. The defensive line is struggling to create consistent pressure, and that may be an even tougher task on Sunday with All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs back in the lineup.
The key to a victory on Sunday won’t be to get into a back-and-forth with the Bucs offense, but Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers offense will need to score touchdowns and not settle for field goals for a chance to walk away with the road victory. The defense will have to come up with a big play or two; perhaps the 49ers can get their first interception of the season, which would only be the second of the season from Mayfield.
Tampa Bay is 24th in the NFL with 132 points allowed. The secondary has injuries to Jamel Dean and could be without Zyon McCollum after he underwent a thumb procedure. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles hasn’t ruled McCollum out for Sunday. Despite struggling to run the football, the 49ers lead the NFL in passing yards.
Against the run, Tampa Bay is tough, allowing 3.8 yards per rush, which is good for the sixth-best mark in the NFL. Sunday isn’t the game to expect the 49ers’ rushing attack to bounce back. Conversely, the Bucs’ passing defense has allowed ten passing touchdowns, which is tied for the sixth most with Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago.
Historically, the 49ers under Shanahan have performed very well against Bowles’ defenses, whether he has served as the defensive coordinator or head coach.
Since 2018, the 49ers averaged 2.8 touchdowns, 22 first downs, 367 yards, and a 37.3 third-down conversion rate. One of those matchups was in 2018 with Nick Mullens starting and Dante Pettis as the number one receiver. Another matchup was last year’s field goal miss party by Jake Moody.
2022’s meeting was Brock Purdy’s first start against Tom Brady, which was a blowout. 2023 saw the 49ers beat the Buccaneers at Levi’s Stadium, with the long pass from Purdy to Brandon Aiyuk as a highlight.
Bottom line, the 49ers offense, specifically the passing offense, will need to be the engine on Sunday. The possible returns of Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall will boost the chances of being explosive on offense, but no matter who is under center, the goal has to be keeping the offense on schedule and protecting the football.
Shanahan has done a brilliant job this season with game planning. Sunday will have to be the best job of the season for the 49ers to move to 5-1.
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