Perhaps the Jacksonville Jaguars beating the Kansas City Chiefs isn’t the biggest upset in the grand scheme of things, yet it signals the Jaguars have arrived as a player in the AFC. The Jaguars made a statement in what was their biggest game of the season to date, improving to 4-1 and dropping the Chiefs to 2-3.
Jacksonville has certainly changed the culture under head coach Liam Coen, matching its win total from last year and emerging as the Indianapolis Colts‘ biggest challenger in the AFC South. The Jaguars are just the fourth team with a go-ahead touchdown drive starting in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter against the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback — and the first to pull off the feat in four years.
In a game where the Jaguars proved they are a contender, there was plenty to take away from the Monday thriller. The overreactions are heating up, too, based on how the game ended. Which are overreactions, and which are warranted realities?
Jaguars are a playoff team
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Heading into this Monday night showdown with the Chiefs, it was fair to ask if the Jaguars were ready for prime time. Turns out, this group under Coen is more than ready.
Jacksonville went pound for pound with Kansas City, exchanging the lead five times in the second half after erasing an early 14-0 deficit. The Jaguars scored 21 unanswered points, then took the Chiefs’ best shot from Mahomes to steal a victory. Jacksonville didn’t roll over, as Trevor Lawrence led a seven-play, 60-yard drive in the final minute — capped with a rushing touchdown in which he fell to start the play — with 23 seconds remaining.
The Jaguars are a tenacious team with an opportunistic defense and a quarterback who’s starting to regain his confidence. That’s a dangerous combination, especially for a team that now has back-to-back wins against good opponents in San Francisco and Kansas City. Jacksonville has the look of a team that will be playing in mid-January.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Butker has been awful for the Chiefs this season, having a kicking error in all five games. He cost the Chiefs on Monday night with his inability to get a kick in bounds or into the landing zone.
The Chiefs had just worn the Jaguars down on a 12-play, 86-yard drive capped by a Kareem Hunt touchdown to take a 28-24 lead with 1:45 left. They appeared poised to survive a 12-round battle with the Jaguars.
On the ensuing kickoff, Butker couldn’t get the ball into the landing zone, as he kicked it out of bounds at the 5-yard line. Penalty on the Chiefs — and the Jaguars got the ball at the 40-yard line. All Trevor Lawrence needed was to go 60 yards in 1:45. He scored in just 1:17 in what seemed to be a stress-free drive, thanks to the good field position Butker gifted them.
This kickoff blunder adds to Butker’s struggles. He missed a kick in four straight games prior to Monday night, and perhaps his attention to detail on kickoffs has affected other aspects of his game.
The Chiefs will ride with Butker through his struggles because of his history with the franchise and his ability to turn things around. That leash is getting shorter by the week, however.
Trevor Lawrence is back
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Lawrence arguably had his best game of the season against a Chiefs defense that entered Monday ranked fifth in points allowed per game (19.0), leading the Jaguars offense to 24 points in the win (seven came on a defensive touchdown). He finished 18 of 25 for 221 yards and a touchdown with an interception (95.6 rating) while rushing for 54 yards and two scores.
To cap the strong performance, Lawrence scored the game-winning touchdown run with 23 seconds left to give the Jaguars the win. He finished 3 of 4 for 48 yards and had two carries for seven yards on the final drive, also benefiting from a pass interference that negated an interception before scoring the winner.
As the Jaguars keep winning, Lawrence’s confidence continues to grow. The passing numbers aren’t stellar (60.4% completion rate, 78.2 passer rating), but he’s making enough plays to help the Jaguars win.
Monday’s performance was a huge step in the right direction, but Jacksonville needs that level of play from its franchise quarterback consistently week to week. With that defense, Lawrence has a margin for error — but the Jaguars don’t beat the Chiefs without him. That needs to be the case more often.
Late-game miscues will cost the Chiefs the AFC West
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Let’s discuss what happened on the Chiefs’ final series after they took a 28-24 lead with 1:45 left. Butker kicked the ball out of bounds, Jaylen Watson missed a pass breakup on Lawrence’s 33-yard completion to Brian Thomas Jr., Chamarri Conner committed pass interference on a Bryan Cook interception, and the Chiefs couldn’t bring down Lawrence after he fell behind the line of scrimmage — and then scored.
That series of miscues led to the loss and left Kansas City sitting at 2-3 after five games. The Chiefs had the Jaguars where they wanted them and fell apart late, but that shouldn’t end up costing them the division.
Kansas City is only a game behind Los Angeles and Denver in the AFC West, and the Chiefs play the Broncos twice and the Chargers once more. The AFC West has come back to the Chiefs, who have crept back into the division race.
A 2-3 start isn’t the worst thing in the world for the Chiefs after an 0-2 start, but the miscues late could loom large come January. Still, the Chiefs will have opportunities to win the division against Denver and Los Angeles — making the final defensive series more of a footnote than a fatal blow.
