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In a college football season where almost nothing has gone according to plan, we know one thing about the top.
On the eye test, it looks like Miami, Ohio State and Oregon are the three best and most complete teams right now. Their College Football Playoff chances are as good as anyone’s, in part because they don’t play an SEC gantlet schedule. Indeed, all three have greater than a 94 percent chance of making the field, according to the latest projections from The Athletic’s Austin Mock, with the next closest team at 78 percent odds.
But among the three, Miami has the best resume, and it’s not close. After beating Florida State in Tallahassee on Saturday, Miami rises to No. 1 for the first time in this week’s edition of The Athletic 136.
The Hurricanes have Top 25 wins against Notre Dame, Florida State and South Florida, plus a win against a Florida team that just beat Texas. Neither the Buckeyes nor the Ducks has a win right now against a top-25 team in these rankings (a spoiler for Texas’ and Penn State’s position).
Miami is good in the trenches. It’s good at quarterback. It’s good at the skill positions. It’s good on defense. Its toughest game remaining on the regular season schedule is a visit to either SMU or Pitt. A spot in the ACC title game and the CFP should be a lock — that is, if Miami can avoid the big upset losses that cost the Canes a spot in the field a year ago, when they lost to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. You can never be sure with Miami.
When the ACC lured Miami away from the Big East in 2004, it was a coup that would eventually lead to the demise of Big East football and was supposed to propel the ACC. Instead, in the 21 years since Miami joined the ACC, the Canes have reached the conference championship game just once and have never won the league. That has to change this year. This looks like the team that should do it.
Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 136.
Along with Miami moving to No. 1, Alabama climbs past Indiana after its win against Vanderbilt. The Tide have a road loss at a top-25 team (FSU) but also have two such wins, including a top-10 win at Georgia. Indiana doesn’t have a win that good, but a trip to Oregon this week offers a chance.
Texas Tech gets up to No. 9 after manhandling previously undefeated Houston. The undefeated Red Raiders have won all their games by at least three touchdowns, including two conference road wins at Utah and Houston.
We’ve reached the point in the year when someone has to make up the rest of the top 25 and this gets hard. I don’t feel particularly confident in anyone here. Missouri gets a needed test hosting Alabama this week, but Mizzou, Tennessee, LSU and Georgia Tech all move up into the top 15 while idle as several teams ahead of them lost.
Vanderbilt doesn’t fall too far because it was competitive on the road at Alabama. Florida State remains in the top 20 because its two losses are to No. 1 Miami and at No. 16 Virginia in overtime, and it beat Alabama. Notre Dame probably won’t have a win that good all season. The case for the Seminoles ahead of the Fighting Irish is a fair one, but I ultimately put Notre Dame one spot ahead because the Irish were more competitive with Miami over the course of the game than FSU was.
USF climbs up to No. 21. The Bulls were better against Boise State than Notre Dame was, but the Irish were better against Miami than USF was. Nebraska jumps to No. 22 at 4-1; its Week 1 win over Cincinnati looks better after the 4-1 Bearcats beat previously undefeated Iowa State. BYU finally gets into the top 25, but the Cougars still haven’t played a team in my top 60.
Memphis is 6-0 and gets USF, Tulane and Navy at home the rest of the way. Keep the Tigers in your CFP mix. TCU moves up after beating Colorado, and Washington gets up to No. 31 after coming back from a 20-0 deficit to win at previously unbeaten Maryland. Idle Tulane nudges up as its Duke win looks a bit better.
Yes, Texas and Penn State fall all the way to Nos. 39 and 40, respectively. As I often say here, if the best part of your resume is a loss, you’d better not have a second one. Well, Texas lost to Florida and Penn State was stunned by winless UCLA. Neither Texas nor Penn State have a Power 4 win; Tulane has two. There’s time for the Longhorns and Nittany Lions to play better and move back up, but name brand and preseason ranking don’t keep them from falling this low.
Florida moves up after beating Texas, while No. 45 Navy, No. 46 Arizona and No. 47 UNLV rise after wins. The Mids and Rebels are both still undefeated and in the CFP mix.
Clemson got right with a blowout of North Carolina, but the Tigers stay behind Syracuse due to their head-to-head loss. Pitt jumps back up after a 48-7 win against Boston College. Western Kentucky gets up to No. 61 after beating Delaware.
Old Dominion keeps climbing, now up to No. 67 after a 47-7 win against Coastal Carolina. Could the Monarchs be the best team in the Sun Belt? They travel to James Madison in two weeks. Texas State drops to No. 73 after a last-second loss to Arkansas State.
Temple is now 3-2 after beating UTSA. First-year coach KC Keeler has already equaled the Owls’ win total in each of the past four years. UCLA climbs up after beating Penn State, but the Bruins don’t rise too much yet because they had not led for a single second until that PSU game and still have a 35-10 loss to New Mexico. Need to see more of what we saw on Saturday.
Bill Belichick’s North Carolina has played three Power 4 opponents and lost to all of them by four touchdowns. They would be the lowest-ranked P4 team if Oklahoma State did not exist. Boston College, with a 48-7 loss to Pitt and a loss to Stanford, is almost as bad, but BC at least kept it close with Cal and Michigan State.
Oregon State is now 0-6 after yet another close loss, this time at Appalachian State. Arkansas State climbs to No. 115 after beating Texas State, but the Red Wolves have a loss to ULM, so they stay behind the Warhawks. Ball State beat Ohio in a shocker, while Akron beat Central Michigan. The MAC appears to be wide open this season.
Sam Houston drops after a 37-10 loss to New Mexico State. UMass remains No. 136 after a 21-3 loss to Western Michigan. But the Kent State-UMass matchup this week could shake up the bottom in a big way.
(Photo: Jason Clark / Getty Images)
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