Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock took a bit of a beating on Thursday following the release of its Q3 delivery haul, curbing a strong rally that had seen the EV maker’s stock gain 35% in less than two months.
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That pullback might seem puzzling at first – after all, the company actually beat expectations for deliveries in the quarter. Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles, exceeding the consensus forecast of ~12,000, representing 24% sequential growth and ~32% year-over-year growth. Production for the quarter reached 10,720 vehicles, up ~79% from 6,000 in 2Q25 but down about 23% from 13,200 in 3Q24.
However, the problem lay in Rivian’s guide for the rest of the year. The company now anticipates total deliveries between 41,500 and 43,500 vehicles, narrowing its previous guide of 40,000 to 46,000. This updated outlook suggests roughly 10,000 vehicles will be delivered in 4Q25.
While the stock has gained over the past 12 months, RIVN shares have been mostly on a downtrend since a splashy IPO almost 4 years ago, with ongoing downward revisions to both revenue and earnings forecasts souring sentiment.
So, as Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas says, the stock’s trajectory is hardly surprising.
“After all the analysis, musings, and spilled ink over how stocks are expected to behave, it ultimately (in our opinion) comes down to earnings revisions trends,” Gianarikas says.
Nevertheless, the analyst remains an admirer of Rivian’s technology, its vertically integrated market approach, its management team, and, of course, its vehicles. “But the question, looking forward is, will that trend break?” asks the analyst, “Can Rivian, the stock, find its mojo?”
For Gianarikas, the answer is “yes.”
The analyst doesn’t have a problem with the new guide, it was essentially adjusted to the midpoint of the range. Because the real story is about the upcoming R2, and here, Gianarikas is effusive in his praise. The vehicle looks fantastic and is priced appropriately, he says. With other automakers scaling back EV commitments – whether strategically or due to weak demand – Rivian has a timely, unique opportunity to push ahead, outpace the non-Tesla competitors, and position itself as the “next American auto icon.”
Despite the widespread talk of an EV slowdown, Gianarikas believes the auto industry’s shift to electrification is very likely, much like the transitions seen in the smartphone and streaming industries in past years.
“The R2 is due to hit the market in 1H26,” Gianarikas goes on to add, “we hope it’s sooner rather than later. And once the new vehicle makes its way to consumers, breaking the trend of negative earnings revisions may begin – and Rivian’s stock should find its mojo.”
Bottom line, Gianarikas assigns RIVN shares a Buy rating, backed by a Street-high $21 price target. At current levels, the analyst sees a 54% one-year upside for the shares. (To watch Gianarikas’ track record, click here)
Most analysts, however, prefer to stay on the RIVN fence right now; the stock’s Hold consensus rating is based on a mix of 12 Holds, 7 Buys and 4 Sells. The $13.78 average price target suggests the shares are almost fully valued. (See RIVN stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
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