As Arch Manning slides in 2026 NFL mock draft, which quarterbacks rise in Round 1?

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The college football season is a month old, and from an NFL Draft perspective, the biggest story has been what’s happening at the quarterback position.

Or rather, what isn’t happening. Several quarterbacks highly rated by scouts and analysts over the summer have stumbled out of the blocks — Texas junior Arch Manning, Clemson senior Cade Klubnik and, to a degree, Penn State senior Drew Allar. We’ve also seen others emerge, though, including players like Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Oregon’s Dante Moore, Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Alabama’s Ty Simpson.

Now that we have a month’s worth of data and film, let’s run through a first-round mock. We’re using win projection totals from The Athletic’s Austin Mock to determine the order.

1. Tennessee Titans: Rueben Bain Jr., edge, Miami

Clemson’s Peter Woods and Auburn’s Keldric Faulk have an argument for this slot, and no one should rule out Ohio State safety Caleb Downs (my top-ranked prospect). However, I’m going with Bain, Miami’s uber-powerful and explosive junior edge who has responded to a ho-hum 2024 with a blazing start to 2025.

Bain had dominant stretches against the run while picking up four pressures in Miami’s opener versus Notre Dame and has a combined 14 pressures in the Hurricanes’ last two games (USF and Florida). A defender who can line up anywhere in the box, Bain has a 28.9 percent win rate, 19 pressures, three sacks and 15 run stops this season.

2. New Orleans Saints: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

As is often the case, the quarterback discussion has gotten more interesting since the start of the season. It’s still early, and plenty could change. For now, though, I’m down to Mendoza and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers as the top two quarterbacks in this class.

I’ve loved how much Mendoza has already improved under Indiana coach Curt Cignetti — and he was already a smart player before he got to Indiana. Mendoza has handled pressure well and hit on nearly 60 percent of his third-and-long attempts. If his accuracy holds throughout the Big Ten slate, he’ll remain in the discussion for QB1.

3. New York Jets: Peter Woods, DT, Clemson

Playing back inside full-time this season, Woods has continued to show his blend of power and explosion against the run — he can control multiple gaps at once. Woods’ pass rush has also heated up, as the Clemson junior now has four combined pressures in his last two games.

The Jets could be in the first-round quarterback discussion come winter, but Aaron Glenn’s squad still needs plenty elsewhere, including more long-term help at DT.

4. New York Giants: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

A starter since his true freshman season, Fano (now a junior) already has starting experience at both right and left tackle. He is an explosive, athletic blocker who maintains power on the move and is very difficult to get the corner against.

The Giants are still in search of another functioning starter opposite Andrew Thomas but should be able to check that box next spring.

5. Carolina Panthers: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

My favorite player in the class, Downs is a positionless backend defender who impacts the run game more than any other defensive back in college football. That was the case last year, too, when Downs was a true sophomore — and he was already one of the country’s best players when he was an 18-year-old freshman at Alabama.

This is an area of need for Carolina. Downs could fall due to his perceived positional value, but anyone willing to take a shot on him should be rewarded.

6. Cleveland Browns: LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina

Physically, Sellers remains — and will remain — the most physically impressive quarterback in the class. He still needs to show more consistency throughout South Carolina’s SEC schedule and might benefit from another year of school. If his elite, dual-threat flashes become more of the norm, though, he could be the No. 1 pick.

7. Miami Dolphins: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

The Tennessee All-American is reportedly close to getting back on the field after suffering an ACL tear in January. When that happens, we’ll need to see whether or not he can return to his 2024 form. If he does, he’ll be a top-10 prospect.

He would fill an area of need for the Dolphins, too, no matter who’s coaching them next season.

8. Las Vegas Raiders: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Proctor had a sloppy start in Alabama’s season opener versus Florida State, but he was back to being a house on wheels during the Tide’s recent win over Georgia. He is as physically impressive an OT prospect as you’ll ever see. If he can stack days like that Georgia performance, he could flirt with the No. 1 spot.

9. Dallas Cowboys: Keldric Faulk, edge, Auburn

There isn’t a defensive player in this class with a more impressive combination of physical tools and athleticism than the 6-foot-6, 285-pound Faulk, who can line up anywhere from zero- to nine-tech while maintaining above-average coverage range. A young junior (he turned 20 on Sept. 7), Faulk isn’t the most polished pass rusher just yet. But he’s been productive since his true freshman season and is off to another strong start, including seven pressures versus Oklahoma.

No one is Micah Parsons, but this would be a steal for Dallas. Faulk could be a top-three player in the class.

10. Cincinnati Bengals: Isaiah World, OT, Oregon

This might be a bit high for World, who is just four games into his Oregon career after transferring from Nevada. But the hyper-athletic 6-8, 320-pounder is off to a strong start — he’s yet to give up a sack and has yielded just four pressures in four games. A former basketball player who is still fine-tuning his technique, World shows violent hands in the run game and has great potential at either right or left tackle.

11. Houston Texans: Francis Mauigoa, G/T, Miami

A starter every day of his college career, Mauigoa is not blessed with elite length and might look like a guard to some scouts. He has a chance to be dominant as an NFL guard or tackle, though, because his athletic explosion and active, violent hands make up for an awful lot. He’s also a winner and has been a critical piece of Miami’s recent run of success.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

Terrell already has forced five incompletions this season after racking up 14 a year ago. A great lateral mover who plays with good eyes and is difficult to stack, Terrell has also shown more activity near the line of scrimmage this season, picking up two sacks and six run stops through four games.

13. Chicago Bears: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Ben Johnson’s Bears are far from a finished product, but the lack of a dynamic playmaker in the backfield might be the biggest hole on the roster.

Love — a top-five player on my board currently — would be an absolutely perfect fit with Johnson, who was able to work magic with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit.

14. Arizona Cardinals: T.J. Parker, edge, Clemson

It’s hardly been a slow start to the season for Parker, the dynamic Clemson edge, who — like Woods — has been a playmaker since his true freshman year. Scouts are still looking for more consistent stretches of dominance from Parker, though, and he’s absolutely capable of delivering them.

15. Washington Commanders: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Downs, Love and Sadiq are the three players in this class who should be above the positional-value conversation.

Sadiq is one of the most unique athletes in the country. An outstanding inline and space blocker who runs routes like a receiver, he’s 245 pounds of dynamite in the body of a cage fighter.

16. Denver Broncos: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Tyson is on pace to surpass his 75-catch, 1,098-yard campaign of a year ago — he already has 39 catches (and three games of 100 yards or more) this season. The most-balanced wide receiver prospect in America, Tyson is a terrific blocker with QB-friendly tendencies and the size to play anywhere. Sean Payton would be in love.

17. New England Patriots: Matayo Uiagalelei, edge, Oregon

The biggest question about Uiagalelei entering the season was whether or not the flashes we’ve seen the past two years would be consistent. So far, so good. Uiagalelei has 18 pressures and four sacks this season and has been a force all over the field, including an impressive performance (six pressures, five hurries, one sack) at Penn State last week.

18. Baltimore Ravens: David Bailey, edge, Texas Tech

Bailey might be the closest college football has to a professional pass rusher right now — the former Stanford edge has been able to flash his entire move set this season. He’s already up to 20 pressures and four sacks and could be the defender with the country’s deepest repertoire.

19. Los Angeles Rams (from ATL): Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

It’s still early, but Moore has passed every test to this point with flying colors. A former five-star passer who sat behind Dillon Gabriel last season, Moore has shown the Jayden Daniels poise gene over and over again this year, playing under control while flashing elite athleticism and arm talent. His performance at Penn State was a huge eye-opener.

Moore certainly could benefit from another year in school, but we’ll be talking about him in the top 10 come spring if he continues to play like this.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU

The start of the 2025 season has been more up and down than Nussmeier would’ve liked, as his downfield accuracy has wavered inside an inconsistent LSU offense. Nussmeier is dealing with a shaky offensive line, as well, but this is a fifth-year player who needs to rise above those concerns. He has the potential to be a top-10 player in this class — but not without showing better consistency.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

A true junior, the 6-4, 243-pound Reese combines ideal linebacker size with above-average burst and movement skills to form a bit of a unique weapon in today’s game. He moves like a player 20 pounds lighter and, because of that, can be a factor both in coverage and as a pass rusher. He can even move around the box. Stock firmly up here.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Domonique Orange, DT, Iowa State

Florida star DT Caleb Banks has been sidelined with a foot injury, which could create some movement on the defensive tackle board. Georgia’s Christen Miller is also a candidate to start moving up, but Orange is the second DT selected here. He is a balanced, powerful and sturdy presence, at 6-1, 328. Add in his exceptional explosion and you have a very versatile interior defender.

23. Cleveland Browns (from JAX): Xavier Chaplin, OT, Auburn

There is still a bit of rawness in Chaplin’s game, as the 6-7, 335-pounder is more a collection of elite tools than a finished product. He’s been up and down through Auburn’s first two SEC game, but he’ll climb draft boards if he can find consistency the rest of the way.

24. Kansas City Chiefs: LT Overton, edge, Alabama

Scouts entered the season wanting to see more production from Overton, as the 6-5, 278-pounder had some prior issues converting pressures into sacks. He’s responded, picking up a sack against Wisconsin and Georgia in back-to-back weeks and at least one pressure in every game so far.

25. San Francisco 49ers: Makai Lemon, WR, USC

This might be too low for Lemon. We’ll see. The USC standout isn’t huge (5-11, 195), but he rivals Tyson as the draft class’ most QB-friendly receiver. He’s a great route runner with terrific body control, dependable hands and more ability in the air than his size says he should have. There are moments when he reminds me of former USC and current Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown.

26. Dallas Cowboys (from GB): Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

A big-bodied outside weapon with a bunch of wiggle, Boston has made at least five catches in three of Washington’s four games. He’s a gigantic target with power and great ball skills. He’ll give off a few Puka Nacua vibes to those watching closely.

27. Seattle Seahawks: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

One of the top performing defensive transfers this season, Delane was a super-productive corner at Virginia Tech and has had no trouble adjusting to life in the SEC . The 6-0, 190-pounder already has four pass breakups this season (giving him 15 for his career) and has forced six incompletions (giving him 14 and counting over the past two years).

28. Indianapolis Colts: Arch Manning, QB, Texas

How’s this for a good time? Manning has not had the start scouts were looking for, so it begs the question: Is the player we’ve seen over the season’s first month a glimpse at what Manning will ultimately become?

But he’s only been a starter for a month, under some of the brightest lights anyone can imagine. His arm talent is still elite, and though he probably needs another season at Texas, he’s going to be on every QB-needy team’s radar until he officially says he’s heading back to Austin for 2026.

29. Los Angeles Rams: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

The other half of Utah’s stellar OT duo, Lomu could have a rather wide range. Like Fano, Lomu has yet to allow a sack yet this season. He’s been more up and down as a run blocker than I would have liked, but his potential is clear. He feels like a first-round prospect — perhaps one who belongs higher than 29.

30. Detroit Lions: Connor Lew, C, Auburn

For all of us outside the Lions’ war room, this feels like an absolutely perfect fit … which means Brad Holmes will probably go somewhere else. We’ll see what Detroit does about its center position long-term, but Lew might be the most NFL-ready prospect at the position since Tyler Linderbaum landed with the Ravens in 2022.

31. Philadelphia Eagles: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Just a redshirt sophomore, Hood — who played with Travis Hunter and DJ McKinney last year at Colorado — is off to a great start during his first year in the SEC. He leads the Vols with five pass breakups and five forced incompletions. A very sturdy player, Hood (6-0, 195) could give Tennessee the best cornerback duo in college football, if/when McCoy gets back.

32. Buffalo Bills: CJ Allen, LB, Georgia

The hyper-athletic Allen, Georgia’s starting inside linebacker the last two seasons, is a tad undersized at 6-1, 235. But he has all the requisite movement and IQ skills to be an every-down, green-dot-wearing mike LB in the NFL. Allen also has terrific coverage range and already has two pass breakups this season.

(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos: Ali Gradischer, Michael Hickey, Megan Briggs / Getty Images)




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