One Battle After Another’s Oscar chances are getting stronger by the day.
After a strong opening weekend, the Paul Thomas Anderson film shot to No. 1 in Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions, solidifying its place as a major contender for the upcoming award season. The upward momentum had already begun in the days leading up to the release, with the Warner Bros. film steadily climbing the charts.
Inspired by Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel Vineland, One Battle After Another stars Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson, a former counterculture radical turned pot-addicted recluse. His life is upended when his daughter, Willa (played by newcomer Chase Infiniti), is abducted by an ultra-conservative Army colonel bent on revenge, Steve Lockjaw (Sean Penn). The ensemble cast also features Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, and Regina Hall.
The thriller was PTA’s career-best, topping the weekend box office with $22.4 million and earning $48.5 million globally.
While the acclaimed writer-director has yet to win an Oscar, three of Anderson’s last five films — There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, and Licorice Pizza — earned nods for Best Picture. All told, he has been nominated 11 times.
Per the latest Gold Derby data, One Battle After Another tops the Best Picture category with a 96.8 percent chance at a nomination, just ahead of the previous leader, Hamnet, at 96.5 percent. Sinners, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good, Marty Supreme, Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, A House of Dynamite, and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere round out the top 10.
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Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Picture isn’t the only race where One Battle After Another has seen its odds rise this week. In the Best Director category, Anderson gained a four-point boost and now holds the second spot, right behind Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) round out the top five.
The acting categories are seeing similar momentum. DiCaprio experienced a 20 percent rise and now sits in third place behind Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere). In the Supporting Actress category, Taylor saw a 17 percent jump and is now in third place, following Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value and Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good. Meanwhile, Infiniti, in her first major role, saw a 13 percent increase and now ranks ninth, just behind Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners. Penn also made a strong move, climbing 12 percent and now sitting in second place behind Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value, with Paul Mescal from Hamnet following closely behind.
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Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
In the Best Adapted Screenplay race, One Battle After Another holds the second spot behind Hamnet. In the new Best Ensemble/Cast category, One Battle After Another currently leads the competition. The film has drawn recognition for its strong casting, particularly for discovering Infiniti, whose layered performance as DiCaprio’s daughter has been widely praised. The film also leads in Best Editing, while ranking second in Best Score, third in Best Cinematography, and fifth in Best Sound.
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