The MLB playoffs are back. Say goodbye to the metronomic march of the regular season and hello to the pressure cooker of the postseason. To mark the occasion, our staff gathered to offer their favorite story lines of the 2025 playoffs. Will the Milwaukee Brewers get over the hump? Will Aaron Judge overcome his October struggles? Read their answers below, and then crack open your peanuts and Cracker Jacks as the playoffs begin.
Anyone Can Win (Even More So Than Usual)
“In 2024, there’s almost no such thing as a playoff upset,” I wrote heading into last year’s postseason. The same assertion applies to 2025. To update a few charts from that piece, based on the actual and expected regular-season records of the clubs in the playoff field:
Last year’s range of playoff-team win totals was even more compressed than this year’s. (Blame the Reds, who sneaked into the 2025 tournament with 83 wins, three below last year’s 86-win Royals and Tigers.) But the absence of the powerhouses from a few years ago is still stark. This year’s highest win total (the Brewers’ 97) is lower than last year’s (the Dodgers’ 98), too. And there’s no clear-cut World Series favorite, as evidenced by the different top teams according to FanGraphs (Mariners), Baseball Prospectus (Blue Jays), Neil Paine (Brewers), Polymarket (Dodgers), and FanDuel (Phillies).
There are certainly some teams that seem more dangerous than their regular-season records would indicate, including the Dodgers (due to their restored rotation), the Reds (due to their top three of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Nick Lodolo), and maybe the Mariners (due to their own strong rotation and deadline additions). But with the possible exception of the Brewers, each contender comes with at least one noteworthy weakness. Any team can be beaten in any year, but this year, no potential defeat is difficult to imagine.
This low ebb for superteams may be cyclical, or it may be a rational (if frustrating) response to the expanded playoff format, which puts more of a premium on being good than on being great. Either way, it could be a playoff feature, not an October bug. Uncertainty breeds suspense, and as we saw in a stirring last week of the regular season, intimidating teams aren’t a prerequisite for riveting drama. Plus, the mostly even matchups in this playoff free-for-all could lead to less fretting about the sport’s inherent randomness than we see when dominant teams get bodied by underdogs. After all, there can’t be big upsets if there aren’t big favorites. Granted, the Dodgers’ payroll is more than triple the size of the Reds’, and the preseason expectations for the two teams were even more mismatched than that. But considering the Dodgers’ so-so season (by their dynastic standards), no one should doubt that L.A. can be beaten.
On the whole, these playoff teams may be mid. But that doesn’t mean the playoffs will be. —Ben Lindbergh
The Dodgers’ Diametrically Opposite Pitching Problem
Last year, the Dodgers devoted 57.7 percent of their playoff innings to relievers—and that’s not counting the four “starts” and 5 1/3 combined innings they got from openers. No previous World Series winner—and only one previous team with more than 10 postseason games played, the 2021 Astros—had ever ridden relievers that hard. With Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and others unavailable to pitch and the three starters still standing (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, and Walker Buehler) not in top form, the rotation produced a 5.25 ERA, a 5.53 FIP, and a negative win probability added. The Dodgers had no choice but to get those guys out of the games and bullpen their way through October. Improbably, it worked.
This time around, L.A. has no such starting-pitching problems. Just as they did in 2023 and 2024, the Dodgers led the majors in games and days lost to injury in 2025, in no small part because their starters spent significant time on the shelf. But this year, that group got healthy at the right time. Beginning with Blake Snell’s return from the IL on August 2, Dodgers starters easily led the majors in FanGraphs WAR. With Snell, Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Glasnow all dealing, the October rotation has no room for Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan, the effective fifth and sixth starters who rounded out the regular-season unit.
Of course, there’s a catch: Now the bullpen is bad. The Dodgers wrapped up the regular season with the most unhittable month in franchise history, but while their starters lapped the league in WPA, their relievers ranked 29th, ahead of only the Twins, who traded most of their relievers at the deadline. The Dodgers’ three highest-paid relievers, whom they signed or extended last winter—Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, and Blake Treinen—were also their three worst this season by win probability added. (Or should we say win probability lost?) Yet Treinen and Scott were also their highest-leverage arms—even more so as they self-destructed in September.
L.A.’s IL is littered with relievers (Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, Brock Stewart, Yates) who were supposed to be salves. So, what will the Dodgers do without a dependable back of the bullpen? Elevate lower-leverage (but more reliable) options like Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer, and Justin Wrobleski to higher-pressure roles? Use Sheehan in long relief and try to refashion Kershaw and Roki Sasaki into lockdown late-inning guys? Get creative with Ohtani? The Dodgers’ starting staff is stronger than it was a year ago, but that doesn’t mean they’ll make as deep a run. If anything does the Dodgers in—as baseball’s biggest spenders, and the first team since 2008 to draw 4 million fans—it will probably be the part of the roster that took them to a title last year. —Lindbergh
Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor walk onto the field before the game between the Athletics and the Mariners on August 22
The Payoff of Seattle’s Aggressive Trade Deadline
Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto upset plenty of Mariners fans with his comment in October 2023 that the team’s goal was to consistently win 54 percent of its games. The statement came after a season in which Dipoto was passive at the deadline and the M’s failed to make the playoffs by one game. Dipoto has consistently maintained that he’s focused on developing prospects and building a sustainable long-term winner. This year’s deadline represented a significant change in approach. The Mariners traded a bunch of prospects and fortified their offense with the additions of Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. And not only did Seattle surpass the 54 percent benchmark that Dipoto set two years ago (this year’s squad won 55.6 percent of its games), but its dominant 17-8 run through September also earned it its first AL West title since 2001 and a first-round bye.
On paper, the Mariners have the most well-rounded roster in the American League. They have Cal Raleigh, the cofavorite for AL MVP, who just had a historic 60–home run season. The back end of the bullpen has two reliable top arms (Matt Brash and Andrés Muñoz), and the bolstered lineup was the league’s third best this season by wRC+. Seattle is the AL favorite in the betting odds, and it’s in large part due to the extra thump that Dipoto sought and delivered to the Pacific Northwest. —Anthony Dabbundo
Which Bombers Will Show Up
The Yankees have steadied the ship. Eight weeks ago, I suggested jumping overboard. That appears to have been premature. Perhaps we all could’ve benefited from an Anthony-Volpe-underthrows-it detox. What can I say? Hurt people hurt people. I can’t promise to do better. It all depends. What I believe to be the question that will define this Yankees postseason is the same one that has defined every Yankee postseason since they called up the greatest right-handed hitter ever: Who are they going to hurt? You or me? Spike or Affleck? Toronto or East Tremont?
There’s nothing solid here. It could fork in any direction. Will the captain rebound from his playoff doldrums to his historically productive mean? Will that influx of reinforcements—the rangy do-it-all irritant from Tampa and the slick-handed third baseman from Denver—continue to raise the modestly improved defensive unit’s ceiling? Or are they gonna forget to cover a base like last time? Will Devin Williams reclaim his airbender? Revert back to his alter ego as a malfunctioning Trajekt machine? Land somewhere in the middle?
These Yankees spent 162 games surpassing and flailing under the many expectations placed on them; the weight is stitched into the pinstripes. They got 34 homers from a mustachioed journeyman who hadn’t hit 18 in a year, let alone 30-plus. Their bullpen fell out from the bottom, got restitched, and fell apart again. They forked over a division lead, then waited until late September to nearly grab it back. So here they sit on the eve of October, a perfectly imperfect, league-leading 4-seed, set to face their biggest rival in a best-of-three crapshoot. I’m open to the possibility that this will end with hurt. What I’m asking is: Are you? —Lex Pryor
How the Philadelphia Phillies Survive Without Zack Wheeler
Before Zack Wheeler went down for the season in mid-August due to venous thoracic outlet syndrome, which caused a blood clot in his right shoulder, the Phillies had arguably the best rotation in baseball. Wheeler was firmly in Cy Young contention with a 2.71 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP across 24 starts, followed in the rotation by Cristopher Sánchez, whose breakout season saw him finish with 22 quality starts (tied for the best in baseball) and a 2.49 ERA, third best in the National League behind only Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Throw in a healthy Ranger Suárez—rejuvenated following injury issues at the beginning of the season—a solid Jesús Luzardo (fourth-most strikeouts in MLB, with 216), and Aaron Nola, who, even in a down year, is a longtime veteran with a postseason pedigree, and the Phillies appeared borderline unstoppable on the run-prevention side of the game.
The loss of Wheeler has changed the calculus heading into October, but maybe not by much: After Philly’s ace landed on the IL on August 17, the Fightins went 26-13, good for a .667 winning percentage. In recent seasons, many of the Phillies’ postseason woes have come down to the bats going cold; this time around, the offense provides reason for optimism. Following the trade deadline acquisition of Harrison Bader, who has played his way into an everyday role in center field, the Phillies’ lineup—bolstered by the usual suspects of Kyle Schwarber (NL home run and MLB RBI leader), Trea Turner (NL batting champion), and Bryce Harper (Bryce Harper)—feels a lot more balanced. The bad news is that should the bats dry up once again, Wheeler won’t be there to keep the Phillies in the game. —Aric Jenkins
The Cincinnati Reds celebrate after a game against the Milwaukee Brewers on September 28
The Potential to End a Long Title Drought
At 27 seasons (and counting), MLB’s expansionless-season streak is almost twice as long as the 15-year stretch from 1978 through 1992, the previous “expansion era” record. Because it’s been so long since the team tally last climbed (in 1998), the number of franchises without a World Series title has dwindled to five. Three of them—the Brewers, Padres, and Mariners—are still in the running this year. (Sorry, Rays, and especially sorry, Rockies.) Add in the Guardians, who haven’t won a World Series since 1948 (which was decades before the Brewers, Padres, or Mariners existed), and the four longest title droughts in MLB are all in jeopardy this postseason. (For good measure, the Tigers, Reds, and Blue Jays haven’t won championships in 30-plus years.)
If each of the 12 teams in the playoff field had an equal shot at a title, we would have a one-in-three chance of seeing one of those extra-long losing streaks snapped. That’s not the case, of course, but with some of the aspiring streak snappers looking like favorites (Mariners) and others still looking like long shots (Guardians), the odds roughly work out that way: FanGraphs’ playoff probabilities put the chances of a broken losing streak at 34.2 percent.
The table below shows the annual probabilities at the start of the playoffs of an extended title drought being broken, dating back to 2014, the first year of the FanGraphs playoff odds. Even as the playoff fields have expanded, the number of active droughts has dropped, dragging the odds of a team getting a long-awaited title down with it. This year’s odds are the highest since 2017.
Will the Title Droughts Be Unbroken? Odds of Seeing a Long Losing Streak Snapped.
If the Mariners win a pennant (which would also be a first for them) and play the Brewers or Padres, it would be the first World Series matchup between titleless franchises since the 1980 face-off between the Phillies and Royals. (Honorable mentions go to the 1992 tilt between the Blue Jays and Braves, when the Braves were still looking for their first championship in Atlanta; the 2002 series between the Angels and Giants, when the Giants hadn’t yet won a World Series in San Francisco; the 2005 matchup between the Astros and White Sox, the latter of which hadn’t won since 1917; and the 2010 showdown between the Rangers and Giants.) Of course, in any such matchup that guarantees the end of one title drought, another one would be guaranteed to continue. Would it be more or less painful for the fans of the World Series losers if their team’s defeat ended an opponent’s similarly lengthy losing streak? I’d like to think that some solidarity among long-suffering supporters would ease the sting, but maybe seeing that could’ve-been-us celebration up close would only intensify the title envy.
We may find out a month from now. In the meantime, we await answers to a (World) series of accompanying questions. Will the Brewers back up MLB’s best regular-season record by winning a postseason series for the first time since 2018, after five straight one-and-done October goodbyes? Will the Mariners complete their quest to win the whole fuckin’ thing in the Year of Cal? Will the Padres justify their typically aggressive trade deadline with a flag that flies forever? And, most importantly: If the Guardians win, which Cleveland players will reenact Bob Lemon and Gene Bearden’s victorious clubhouse kiss? —Lindbergh
The Milwaukee Brewers’ Quest to Get Over the October Hump
Since the beginning of the 2018 MLB season, the Brewers have the fifth-most regular-season wins in all of baseball. And unlike the big-market powerhouses next to them near the top of that list, the Crew have maintained their perch through a remarkable ability to regenerate. Like a lizard that loses and then regrows its tail, Milwaukee has lost several organizational cornerstones (from aces to shutdown closers, from a manager to a top executive) only to spawn an effective replacement and continue its winning ways.
The Brewers have earned their reputation as MLB’s shrewdest franchise, but they have precious little playoff success to show for it. Since the start of 2018—that same stretch in which they have the fifth-most regular-season wins—Milwaukee is tied for 12th-most postseason wins, and the vast majority of those came in 2018, when it lost to the Dodgers in the NLCS in seven games. In five subsequent postseason trips, Milwaukee hasn’t won a playoff series and has won just two games total. Whatever magic the Brewers have tapped into seems to run dry as soon as the calendar flips to October.
The 2025 Brewers were arguably the team of this MLB season, as a hodgepodge of young players and reclamation projects led them to a league-leading 97 wins even though they had the 22nd-highest payroll. From July 6 to August 16, they ripped off a 28-4 record to run away with the NL Central. Now, expectations are high leading into the playoffs. Will this year’s team be remembered for more than a great regular season? —Isaac Levy-Rubinett
José Ramírez rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the Detroit Tigers
The Follow-Up to the Cleveland Guardians’ Historic Comeback
It’s been a long season for Guardians fans. First, starting pitcher Luis Ortiz was placed on non-disciplinary paid leave in relation to a gambling investigation. Then Emmanuel Clase—the guy who finished third in AL Cy Young voting last season and looked nearly untouchable!—got placed on leave for similar reasons. Suddenly, a rebuild seemed all but inevitable, with a division title looking unlikely and a playoff spot seeming to slip through the team’s fingers.
When the trade deadline dust settled, Shane Bieber (my favorite Bieber, mind you) had been sent to Toronto and reliever Paul Sewald had been traded to Detroit, but other hot commodities like outfielder Steven Kwan remained in town. Still, I checked out. I admit it. Since 2020, Cleveland has made the playoffs every other year, so I put this down as another off year and started to hope for better luck next season. But when the Tigers started their decline—and then heavily accelerated it because they wanted to dance like Trump—I told myself to lock in and pray for a miracle. And lo and behold, a miracle is what Guardians fans got: Cleveland erased a 15.5-game deficit in the AL Central to complete the largest comeback in league history. So if you see me walking around Brooklyn looking like Buc Nasty and shouting, “Go Guards!” at anyone who looks like they thoroughly enjoy Little Caesar’s pizza, understand that division leads are cute, but they don’t mean shit when you’re going up against J-Ram and the boys. —Kellen Becoats
Wiping the Slate Clean After the Detroit Tigers’ Miserable Second Half
OK, so the assignment is “favorite story line for the MLB playoffs,” and I’m the Tigers guy around here, so let me just pop over to Baseball Reference for some research. But before I do that, let me revel in the magic that was the end of last season, which culminated in a dominant 31-13 stretch that captivated the sport. I’m not the biggest stats expert, but this here split looks pretty tasty to me:
Man, that was fun.
And now I’ll just put on my Ben Lindbergh hat and pull up the same splits for this season; maybe there’ll be something of interest there—
Oh God, my eyes! It burns, it burns, it burns! The carnage permeates my soul! The second number is now the first number, and the first number is now the second! Oh, make the vicious, evil agony stop! I watched it all happen but had already scrubbed it from my memory via a proprietary method whereby I allow my toddler to scream for hours each night to the point that my hippocampus is rendered useless and I slip into an ignorant stupor that isn’t necessarily bliss but I’ll take it, you know what I mean???
OK, OK, OK, get a handle on yourself. Let’s do a quick meditation.
Inhale. What would …
Exhale. Sparky say …
Inhale. What would …
Exhale. Sparky say …
OK! C’mon, Gaines, pull yourself together. The postseason is an opportunity to turn the page. These Gritty Tigs are gritty for a reason, right? Tarik Skubal’s side is doing OK, yeah? We got this! Who did we draw in the wild card?
You have GOT to be kidding me! What did we do to deserve this??? We’re the lovable Rust Belt overachievers in this league, I mean what even is a Guardian, this is such absolute bullshit!!
In summary, my favorite story line of the MLB playoffs is … how ’bout those Lions?! —Craig Gaines
Living Vicariously Through All the Former Orioles on the San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres caught fire down the stretch of the 2025 season, winning seven of their final 10 games to set up a wild-card series vs. the Chicago Cubs. Last year, three of the four lower-seeded teams won their opening series. Recent playoffs have suggested that it’s beneficial to enter the playoffs on a hot streak, and the Padres fit that bill.
Like many Marylanders, I will be cheering for the Padres this postseason. Some have even started calling them the “West Coast Orioles.” In addition to O’s legend Manny Machado, the Padres employ Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano, both of whom were acquired from Baltimore at the trade deadline. Infielder Jose Iglesias also played a season with the then-tanking Orioles in 2020. And the local connections don’t stop there! Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets are both from the Baltimore area, and Gavin’s dad, Larry Sheets, played for the Orioles in the 1980s. Being an O’s fan this season required a healthy dose of coping, and the West Coast Orioles could ease that pain this October, starting with a win at Wrigley. —Colby Payne
Connelly Early delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays
The First-Year Starting Pitchers of October
Until a few days ago, I was planning to do a deep dive into what seemed certain to be a record number of postseason starting pitchers who had made their major league debuts during the regular season. Then the Mets (and the trio of rookie starters they promoted in the last six weeks of the regular season as they tried to rebuild their rotation on the fly) missed the playoffs; the Brewers made it more or less official that midseason sensation Jacob Misiorowski will be in their October bullpen; and the Cubs’ Cade Horton hit the IL with a rib fracture, which will render him ineligible to pitch unless Chicago advances to the NLCS. So how about a blurb-depth dive instead?
Leaguewide, 2025 was a good year for aged arms: Pitchers 35 or older combined for their most fWAR since 2012 and their most innings pitched since 2008. It was also a weak year for rookies in general: Despite Nick Kurtz’s slugging, rookie batters and pitchers combined for their lowest WAR total since 2017 (excluding 2020) and second lowest since 2008. But this postseason might still spotlight some young guns (along with lots of lefties).
Again excluding 2020, when 16 teams made the playoffs and seven first-year starters amassed a total of 11 postseason starts, the record for distinct first-year postseason starters is five, set in 2013, when Sonny Gray, Danny Salazar, Michael Wacha, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Gerrit Cole combined for a dozen October starts
Most First-Year Postseason Starters
There’s still a chance that record could be equaled or surpassed this postseason, even without the aid of any rookie openers who might inflate the tally. The top three October rotations this year—Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners—have nary a rookie in sight, but some other teams’ hopes may hinge in part on fresh-faced pitchers: the AL East trio of the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler, the Blue Jays’ Trey Yesavage, and Boston’s Connelly Early; the Guardians’ Parker Messick; the Brewers’ Chad Patrick; and, if the Cubs can last long enough, Horton. These rooks weren’t just along for the ride; they’ve played load-bearing roles in the pennant race. Each of these six pitchers ranked no worse than third among his team’s starters in fWAR and RA-9 WAR from the day he debuted.
Team Rank Among Starting Pitchers Since MLB Debut Date
It’s possible that none of these pitchers will see October action: They could get bumped from their rotations, or their teams could get eliminated before they take their turns. But they all played important parts en route to the playoffs, and those crucial contributions could continue. Fans on rookie watch might get what they want this week: If the Yankees–Red Sox wild-card series goes to Game 3, which team goes home Early could come down to Connelly and Cam. —Lindbergh
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