Yep, we’ve hit that week. It’s that fantasy football week where no one feels great, and on top of it, waivers are starting to get thin. I know we have to talk about that big injury, and I’m forced to below, but putting that off for as long as I can — at least the Week 5 waivers have a few fun pickups like Woody Marks and Elic Ayomanor. Though if you’ve been here all year, you’re likely just checking in for “Worries” and “Power-Ups”, since you had those two stashed long ago.
Heads Up
- Players must be under 60% rostered on Yahoo
- Listed in order of preference: I’ll regularly prioritize potential upside over immediate replacement production
- RB backups have a separate secondary list based solely on the lead option getting hurt
- No FAB suggestions: It varies wildly by league tendencies and always relative (if you lost your RB1 to injury and there is a clear backup, you’re going to be more aggressive)
- Streaming QB and TE are grouped together — weekly ranking can change once projections/ranks run — DST could shift a bit too
- Emojis for brevity
- 😏 = mentioned multiple times, multiple weeks — either you want him, or don’t
- 🫡 = Next Man Up but with deeper startability
BYES: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh
Worry Report
(Scale 1-5: more ducks = more worry)
- Bengals: ♾️🦆 — You know why. Broncos or not, this offensive line can’t support the offense succeeding without Joe Burrow like it did in 2023… and possibly not even with Burrow.
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, WAS: 🦆🦆🦆🦆 — Bill hasn’t had more than 10 touches or 47.4 RBTouch% in any game. This is a full-blown committee, and we can only hope that the Commanders use him more in the second half of the season.
- Derrick Henry, RB, BAL: 🦆🦆 — There is plenty of good and bad news for Henry. Excluding his first two years — before being a full-time starter in 2018 — Henry has been stuffed more than ever at 22.4%. On the other hand, his percentage of runs of 10+ yards is a career-best 16.3%. His YPC (5.8) is barely behind last year’s career mark of 5.9, but he’s averaging a career-low FPPG (12.0). Some of it has been game script, like Week 4 against the Chiefs. Nevertheless, the lack of touches is the main issue, averaging just 13.3 per game, which would be the lowest — previous lows were 18.1 in 2023 and 14.4 in 2018. Every other year has been at least 20.2 per game. The Ravens have been off to start the season, particularly with more passing than expected. Henry will bounce back as they lean on him more, though it might not happen until Lamar Jackson is back at quarterback (there’s concern Jackson misses at least Week 5).
- Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC: 🦆🦆🦆 — Good news: McConkey has been first in routes all but one week, when he was barely behind Quentin Johnston (Week 2 — 28 routes to Johnston’s 30). Bad news: McConkey has been third in targets all but one week, when he was second (Week 1 — 9 to Keenan Allen’s 10). Even worse: McConkey is third in targets, receptions and yards and has no touchdowns, despite having the most routes for the Chargers on the year (156). McConkey is a good buy low, but Johnston’s emergence and Allen’s arrival are limiting McConkey.
Power Up Players
(Scale 1-5: more Mario mushrooms = more excitement)
- Quinshon Judkins, RB, CLE: 🍄🍄🍄 — Judkins had 21 carries in a game the Browns lost 34-10. In fact, Judkins was fifth in RBTouch% at a bellcowian 89.3. This is his backfield. Now, if only the offense could do a bit more.
- Stefon Diggs, WR, NE: 🍄🍄 — It appears it’s time to stop holding onto that Boutte. Kayshon Boutte to be exact, as while he was the top Patriots receiver in routes the first three weeks, the targets weren’t coming consistently. And now? Well, Diggs ran the most routes (there were only 22 dropbacks, but Diggs ran 18). Boutte was third behind Hunter Henry (17) with 16, and is still a top-two option, but Diggs also had 41.2 TmTGT%. That won’t be the case every week, but Diggs looks up to speed — healthy and chemistry-wise — which puts him in the WR3/4 conversation and gives that Boutte the boot.
- Romeo Doubs, WR, GB: 🍄🍄🍄 — Listen to the pod for more on Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks getting Matt LeFleur’d, but Doubs is the top Packers wideout, and by a decent gap — at least until Jayden Reed and/or Christian Watson return to muddy it up. No, Doubs won’t catch multiple touchdowns again… ever? However, he’s the only Packers wide receiver to see 80% or more of the routes. Packers gonna Packers, but at least Doubs is clear of that nonsense.
Streaming Quarterbacks
- Jaxson Dart, NYG at NO
- Jake Browning, CIN vs DET
- Matthew Stafford, LAR vs SF
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at CAR
- Sam Darnold, SEA vs TB
- Bryce Young, CAR vs MIA
“Thou Shall Not… Pass!”
(No thanks, not worth the risk)
- Geno Smith, LV at IND
- Spencer Rattler, NO vs NYG
- C.J. Stroud, HOU at BAL
- Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs KC
- Joe Flacco, CLE vs MIN
- Carson Wentz, MIN at CLE
- Cam Ward, TEN at ARI
Waiver Wire Running Backs
- Rachaad White, TB — Woody Marks isn’t No. 1? Well, not if Bucky Irving misses time (getting a mysterious MRI). If Irving misses time, White would jump back into the mid-low, volume-reliant RB2 conversation. He would barely be ahead of Marks, but we trust the Buccaneers offense more, and White has been an RB2 (even better) before, even though Sean Tucker would likely steal a bit more work this time around. If Irving is fine, White is down in the Sean Tucker spot.
- Woody Marks, HOU — Not only was Marks a Top 10 RB for Week 4, he’s now the current top running back in Houston with nearly 60% of the touches and a near 80/20 split on third down. No, the Texans’ offense and blocking won’t sustain weekly Top 10 value, especially since Nick Chubb isn’t going completely away. However, the inevitable change is here, and Marks will have mid-RB2 value. As for Joe Mixon, there’s no worries about an imminent return, as his current update is that there should be “more clarity” by mid-October.
- Tyjae Spears, TEN — Spears is eligible to return and could push for a 50/50 role or more, given Tony Pollard’s mediocre effectiveness.
- Kendre Miller, NO — While Kellen Moore is killing Alvin Kamara, he’s also working Miller into a timeshare with one-third of the touches in Week 4.
- Blake Corum, LAR 🫡
- Braelon Allen or Isaiah Davis, NYJ — Whether Breece Hall gets hurt, or… traded? Allen would have Top 20 upside… if he’s okay (knee). If Allen is out, Davis is the new handcuff with the potential for RB3/4 value any given week and Top 20 potential if the backfield is his.
- Ollie Gordon, MIA 😏
- Brashard Smith, KC — Season-high seven touches. Yeah, it’s just seven, but maybe the Chiefs start involving Smith more, given the lackluster seasons from Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt?
- Jaydon Blue, DAL — Miles Sanders could miss time (ankle), and if so, the Cowboys would be forced to use Blue… finally.
- Sean Tucker, TB — Only here if Irving is out, and even so, if the next three names weren’t on a bye, Tucker would rank only ahead of Kyle Monangai.
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL 🫡 — Normally higher but on a bye.
- Kenneth Gainwell, PIT — Don’t forget about Gainwell while the Steelers are on a bye. Jaylen Warren should be fine in two weeks, but Gainwell could see more work given his Week 4 performance.
- Kyle Monangai, CHI — We’re still waiting for Ben Johnson to get frustrated with D’Andre Swift.
Purely Next Man Up Ranks
(If an injury ahead of them)
Including several who are in timeshares but also 100% clear bellcow types if the lead got hurt, so you know where others “rank” in comparison. There are a few backfields not included with timeshares or committees likely taking over if the lead got hurt (i.e., Eagles).
- David Montgomery, DET
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL
- Zach Charbonnet, SEA
- Brian Robinson, SF
- Kenneth Gainwell, PIT
- Blake Corum, LAR
- Braelon Allen, NYJ
- Ray Davis, BUF
- Rachaad White, TB
- Ollie Gordon, MIA
- DJ Giddens, IND
- Tyrone Tracy, NYG
- Tyjae Spears, TEN
- RJ Harvey, DEN
- TreVeyon Henderson, NE
- Bhayshul Tuten, JAX
- Rico Dowdle, CAR
- Kendre Miller, NO
- Kyle Monangai, CHI
- Tahj Brooks, CIN
- Keaton Mitchell, BAL
- Zavier Scott, MIN
- Miles Sanders/Jaydon Blue, DAL
- Jerome Ford, CLE
- Hassan Haskins, LAC
Bait Loot
(Leave them on waivers)
- Justice Hill, BAL — Even if Derrick Henry got hurt, Hill would keep his role (albeit slightly larger) with Keaton Mitchell taking the lead of a timeshare.
Junk Drop
- Kaleb Johnson, PIT — Couldn’t get much work with Warren out and it would take injuries to Warren and Gainwell for him to see value.
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers
- Elic Ayomanor, TEN 😏
- Romeo Doubs, GB 😏
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — With Malik… N… hold on, I can get through this… Nabers… done for the year, Robinson has a good chance to lead the Giants in targets.
- Malik Washington, MIA — With Tyreek Hill’s knee Thanos snapped from existence, Washington steps up as a great fit for the Hill void, given his skills. Of course, Darren Waller’s reemergence and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s involvement could prevent Washington from WR4 or better value, but he’s well worth the gamble.
- Darius Slayton, NYG — Slayton’s time for relevance is back with that awful thing we covered above. However, Dart could treat Slayton as the third option behind Theo Johnson. Still, Slayton has WR4 upside now.
- Isaiah Bond, CLE — As mentioned last week, Bond was a Top 5 wideout talent in the NFL Draft with similarities to Jaylen Waddle. The Browns will limit his ceiling, and a QB change could do the same, but Bond is worth grabbing for WR4+ upside with Cedric Tillman out for weeks (hamstring).
- Troy Franklin, DEN — Continues to run as the No. 2, far ahead of Marvin Mims in snaps and routes. Continues to cede the production — most importantly, touchdowns — to Mims.
- Jalen Coker, CAR — Eligible to return, and a good chance Coker steps into the outside/No. 2 role.
- Tre Tucker, LV — Good: ran every route. Bad: the downside mentioned last week of being the third option in this offense, especially when it struggles passing-wise.
- Dontayvion Wicks, GB — As mentioned above with Doubs’ Power Up, Wicks had more route involvement than Golden in Week 4. This is what the Packers do. Wicks and Golden will rotate, which will mean Wicks will have some boom weeks. Predicting them is near impossible, but if you’re in a deep league and/or need a high-upside WR4, Wicks is in play for now (well, not Week 5).
Stashes
- Marvin Mims, DEN — Mims and each of these next three need an injury to a top-two wideout for reliable fantasy value (as seen with Bond this week).
- Tory Horton, SEA
- Luther Burden, CHI
- Isaac TeSlaa, DET
- Brandon Aiyuk, SF — Down the list with recent news that he’s “not close.”
Bait Loot
(Leave them on waivers)
- Tutu Atwell, LAR — One big play. Just 40.9% of the routes.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC — Don’t think I need to tell you to skip JJSS.
Junk Drop
- Luke McCaffrey, WAS — Here in case anyone stashed him in deeper leagues. McCaffrey got a touchdown but was well behind Chris Moore as the No. 2 wideout. It was worth the gamble, but McCaffrey is still the third option at best.
- Tyquan Thornton, KC — Well, that ride was a short one. Sure, Thornton scored to save his week, but with Xavier Worthy back, Thornton not only took a backseat, he was dang near kicked out of the cart with just 40.5% of the routes even before the game was out of control. That was a distant fourth for Chiefs wideouts.
- Hollywood Brown, KC — Don’t pick him up again. If you already dropped him, leave him. Worthy is back, and Rashee Rice is close.
- Keon Coleman, BUF — I get it. Talent is appealing. Bills’ offense is appealing. Never knowing when he’ll have another one of his 4-5 good games and being forced to start him every week so you don’t miss them? Super unappealing. I’d rather chase breakouts/injury replacements. I wouldn’t drop him for Tucker or Wicks, but you can argue otherwise, and Coleman is essentially in the stash group needing an injury to trust.
Streaming Tight Ends
- Harold Fannin, CLE
- Darren Waller, MIA
- Jake Tonges, SF
- Theo Johnson, NYG
- Brenton Strange, JAX
- Mason Taylor, NYJ
Streaming DST
(First team listed is streamer)
Week 5
- KC at JAX
- CLE vs MIN
- TB at SEA
- IND vs LV
- LAR vs SF
- ARI vs TEN
- NYG at NO
- LV at IND
- CAR vs MIA
Week 6
- SEA at JAX
- LV vs TEN
- WAS vs CHI
- NE at NO
- JAX vs SEA
- CLE at PIT
- ARI at IND
(Photo of Woody Marks: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Connections: Sports Edition
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today’s puzzle
Source link
