CLEVELAND, Ohio — Despite suffering a 7-3 setback in their series opener against Texas, the Guardians have a chance Saturday to clinch their 15th postseason appearance since 1995.
Houston’s 4-3 loss to the Angels late Friday dropped Cleveland’s magic number to clinch at least a wild card spot to 1. If the Guardians beat the Rangers on Saturday night or the Astros fall in Los Angeles, Cleveland’s ticket is punched.
The Guardians also crept closer to a 13th American League Central Division title with Detroit’s walk-off loss in Boston earlier in the evening. Cedanne Rafaela’s RBI triple in the bottom of the ninth allowed the Red Sox to lock up the No. 2 wild card seed. Cleveland’s magic number for a division title is down to 2.
Clinching scenarios with two games remaining for each team:
Guardians (86-74; T-1st in AL Central)
- Win 2: Guaranteed AL Central champions. Would host No. 3 wild card starting Tuesday.
- Split 1-1: At least guaranteed No. 3 wild card. Could win division with a Detroit loss.
- Lose 2: Would need a loss by Houston or two losses by Detroit to guarantee a playoff spot. Would win division if Detroit goes 0-2. Would miss playoffs if Houston goes 2-0 and Detroit wins at least one of its final two.
Tigers (86-74; T-1st in AL Central; 3rd in AL Wild Card)
- Win 2: Guaranteed at least the No. 3 wild card spot. Would win division and host wild card if Cleveland loses at least one.
- Split 1-1: Clinch at least a wild card spot. Would be division champions if Cleveland goes 0-2
- Lose 2: Would need a loss by Houston to guarantee a playoff spot.
Astros (85-75, 1 game behind DET for 3rd AL Wild Card)
- Win 2: Would need either Cleveland or Detroit to go 0-2 in order to reach postseason.
- Split 1-1: Eliminated from playoffs.
- Lose 2: Eliminated from playoffs.
| TEAM | W | L | PCT | GB | MAG# | L10 | STRK | NEXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 86 | 74 | .540 | – | 2 | 7-3 | L2 | Sept. 27 vs. TEX |
| DET | 86 | 74 | .540 | – | – | 2-8 | L1 | Sept. 27 at BOS |
Cleveland can clinch tonight if …
The Guardians are in with a win. They can celebrate a 15th playoff appearance in the last 30 years with a victory against Texas or a Houston loss later to the Angels.
A Detroit loss in Boston would give the Guards a chance to clinch the division title with a win against the Rangers.
The odds
Fangraphs.com gives Cleveland a 93.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 69.2% chance to win the division.
The matchups
Tigers vs. Red Sox, 4:10 p.m. on MLB Network.
- RHP Keider Montero (5-3, 4.48) vs. LHP Connelly Early (1-1, 1.88).
Guardians vs. Rangers, 7:15 p.m. on FOX, WTAM 1100 AM, WMMS 100.7 FM, WARF 1350 AM (Spanish) and the Guardians Radio Network.
- LHP Joey Cantillo (5-3, 3.21) vs. LHP Jacob Latz (2-0, 2.80).
Astros vs. Angels, 9:38 p.m.
- RHP AJ Blubaugh (3-1, 1.93) vs. RHP Caden Dana (0-3, 6.39)
| TEAM | W | L | PCT | WCGB | L10 | STRK | NEXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 92 | 68 | .575 | +6.0 | 9-1 | W6 | Sep 27 vs. BAL |
| BOS | 88 | 72 | .550 | +2.0 | 6-4 | W1 | Sep 27 vs. DET |
| DET | 86 | 74 | .538 | – | 1-9 | L1 | Sep 27 at BOS |
| HOU | 85 | 75 | .531 | -1.0 | 4-6 | L1 | Sep 27 at LAA |
History in the making
Detroit led the division by 15 1/2 games on July 9, and 12 1/2 games as recently as Aug. 26, but Cleveland pulled in front of the Tigers with wins on Tuesday and Wednesday before the Tigers captured the series finale.
Cleveland is still aiming to make major league history by overcoming the largest deficit in the divisional era (since 1969).
The Tigers and Guardians could meet again next week if Houston falls out of contention for the third wild card spot in the AL. The Tigers are a game ahead of the Astros heading in to their final three games of the season, but Detroit owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with four wins in their six meetings.
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