The Sunday of Week 4 of the NFL regular season begins in Ireland and ends in Dallas.
In the morning, the first NFL game to ever be played in the land of U2 and Guinness sees the Steelers (technically) host the Vikings, where both teams are searching for their third wins while remaining atop their respective divisions.
In the afternoon, the Eagles and Buccaneers aim to hand each other their first defeats of the year, with Philadelphia trying to beat a Tampa Bay team it hasn’t in its last two games at Raymond James Stadium.
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In the late window, it’s the Ravens and Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, with both teams trying to avoid a 1–3 start. Since Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes became starters in 2018, Kansas City has owned the matchup, going 5–1 including the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Rams and Colts meet in Los Angeles, with Indianapolis trying to run its record to a perfect 4–0.
Finally, the Micah Parsons Bowl finishes the evening, with the Packers looking to bounce back from a loss in Cleveland against the Cowboys.
But we start in Ireland, where Minnesota and Pittsburgh tangle in Dublin.
Spread: Minnesota -2.5
Key matchup: Brian Flores vs. Aaron Rodgers
Key stat: Rodgers is 0–2 all-time vs. Flores.
Date, Time, TV: 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network
If history is any indication, the Vikings will have a leg up on the Steelers.
Minnesota and Pittsburgh are both 2–1, but the Steelers have struggled once you dig into the details. In Week 2, they lost 31–17 at home to the Seahawks. In their two wins over the Jets and Patriots, they’ve been outgained 763–474 in total yardage, only to be bailed out by six opponent turnovers. Additionally, the offense has yet to gain 300 yards in any game, a feat shared by only the Dolphins, Texans, Titans and Cardinals this season.
That doesn’t bode well for Pittsburgh, which is about to see one of the league’s best defensive coordinators in Brian Flores.
Flores, 44, enters the game with a defense ranking both sixth overall and sixth in yards per play allowed (4.6), while permitting just 4.6 net yards per pass attempt, tied for the second-best. As always, Minnesota is blitzing a ton, too, tied for seventh with a 32.7% blitz rate.
Flores has a sterling record against Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, having beaten him both times they’ve matched up when Flores was a play-caller. In 2018, Flores and the Patriots bested Rodgers and the Packers, holding him to 259 yards on 43 attempts (6.0 yards per attempt) in a 31–17 victory.
Last season, Rodgers struggled against Minnesota’s defense as a member of the Jets. Coincidentally, that was also an international game, with Rodgers going 29-of-54 with two touchdowns and three interceptions while being sacked three times in a 23–17 loss.
If Pittsburgh is going to beat Minnesota, it starts with Rodgers doing a much better job against Flores’s pressure-heavy defense.
Verderame’s verdict: Minnesota 23, Pittsburgh 16
Spread: Philadelphia -3.5
Key matchup: Jalen Hurts vs. Tampa Bay’s secondary
Key stat: Philadelphia ranks 29th in passing yardage.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
Coming into Week 4, Philadelphia ranks 29th in passing yardage, ahead of only the Vikings, Jets and Titans. While we saw Jalen Hurts step up in the second half of last week’s 33–26 victory over the Rams with 206 passing yards over the final two quarters, is that type of performance sustainable?
After posting 2,095 rushing yards last year, Saquon Barkley has been relatively bottled up behind an injury-plagued Philadelphia offensive line, rushing for 194 yards on 3.3 yards per carry. Things won’t get any easier on Sunday, with nose tackle Vita Vea and the Buccaneers permitting just 3.6 YPC, tied for the fifth-best in the league.
With the rushing attack not clicking, Hurts might need to find A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith early and often. The Buccaneers are getting Pro Bowl–level play from corner Jamel Dean. Still, they are also relying on Zyon McCollum and slot rookie Jacob Parrish, with the latter playing 70% of the defensive snaps. There should be opportunities for the Eagles to throw, but that’s not their preferred method.
In his career, Hurts has also struggled against Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles. The Super Bowl-champion quarterback is 1–2 in regular-season games while completing 56.9% of his attempts with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Verderame’s verdict: Tampa Bay 22, Philadelphia 20
Spread: Los Angeles -3.5
Key matchup: Kyren Williams vs. Colts’ front seven
Key stat: Williams ranks eighth with 226 rushing yards.
Date, Time, TV: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Daniel Jones is the biggest surprise in the league through three weeks. He ranks third in passing yards (816) and second in yards per attempt (9.3). He’s also benefited from excellent protection, with the Colts having the league’s lowest sack percentage (2.2%) despite playing the Broncos in Week 2, who lead the NFL with 12 sacks.
For the Rams, the key to slowing down Jones might be time of possession and stopping the run. To achieve that goal, Los Angeles has to run the ball.
Kyren Williams rushed for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, and he’s eighth among NFL backs with 226 rushing yards. Los Angeles has been efficient on the ground, checking in 10th in yards per carry (4.7). Meanwhile, Indianapolis has struggled to stop the run, ranking 24th in YPC against (4.8).
If the Rams can grind out yardage with Williams and score as a result, Jones will be suddenly forced to throw when it’s expected, as compared to two of the Colts’ three wins thus far, blowouts over the winless Dolphins and Titans.
Defensively, the Rams have a terrific pass rush led by Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Braden Fiske, and are tied with the Broncos for the NFL lead with 12 sacks.
Verdict: Los Angeles 26, Indianapolis 22
Spread: Baltimore -2.5
Key matchup: Ravens’ pass rush vs. Patrick Mahomes
Key stat: Baltimore has allowed a league-high 415 yards per game.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Kansas City’s offense has been a struggle, while Baltimore’s defense has been an abomination.
For the Ravens, the task will be overcoming a slew of injuries. All-Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike has been ruled out with a neck injury, while edge rusher Kyle Van Noy is also expected to be inactive due to a hamstring injury. Defensive lineman Travis Jones has also missed practice, making Baltimore dangerously thin up front. Last year, Madubuike and Van Noy combined for 19 sacks, 25 tackles for loss and 38 quarterback hits.
While the Chiefs have been without star receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, the latter is expected to play Sunday after rehabbing a dislocated right shoulder. If Worthy returns, he will join a receiving corps with Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton, all of whom ran sub-4.3-40 times.
Their speed will threaten a Baltimore defense that has allowed 798 passing yards, the second-most only to the Cowboys. But for the Chiefs to take advantage, Worthy will need to have an impact. Through three weeks, the Chiefs’ offense is 19th in yards per play (5.2) and yards per attempt (6.4) and 30th in completion rate (59%).
This game could also come down to whether the Ravens can pressure Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore has only three sacks on the season, with two of those from Madubuike. While Kansas City has struggled offensively at times, it has found a stud left tackle in rookie Josh Simmons to protect Mahomes’s blindside. Mahomes has also helped matters by having a league-low 2.1 seconds in the pocket per dropback.
Verderame’s verdict: Kansas City 24, Baltimore 23
Spread: Green Bay -7
Key matchup: Micah Parsons vs. Dallas’s defense
Key stat: Dak Prescott has a league-high 126 pass attempts.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
Through three weeks, Dak Prescott hasn’t had a choice but to throw the ball, with Dallas’s defense surrendering 30.6 points (27th) and 397.6 yards (30th) per game. Against the Packers, that’s a disaster as Rashan Gary leads the league with 4.5 sacks, while Micah Parsons ranks 10th in pass rush win rate at 24%.
Furthermore, Dallas is dealing with a banged-up offensive line. Guard Cooper Beebe (ankle/foot) and first-round guard Tyler Booker (ankle) are both out for at least the next month. With two interior starters on the sideline, expect Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to create havoc with simulated pressures, along with twists and stunts, to create advantageous one-on-one matchups. Last season, only the Ravens ran simulated pressures more than Green Bay.
The Packers blitz on only 18.8% of snaps, ranking 25th. Green Bay hasn’t had to blitz much, with the duo of Parsons and Gary winning consistently.
And if Dallas has to drop back and throw repeatedly, it likely won’t end well.
Verderame’s verdict: Green Bay 34, Dallas 20
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