Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings – The Blueprint

I will update through Sunday morning, so come back then for final news reactions, and check out my content on YouTube, podcasts, and X.

Big news for Underdog!!! We have team picks on top of all the player picks. The current deposit offer is play $5 get $50. Team picks available in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin. More details here:

1. Christian McCaffrey – 20.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The 49ers project for the 8th-most points (25.0) against Jacksonville. I’ve liked their defense so far. Better LB play along with elite edge rushers.

   • He’s the RB3 on RB1 usage so far and is averaging 6.8 more expected half PPR points than the RB2 overall right now, thanks to a ridiculous level of targets. CMC is on pace for 141 receptions. For reference, the most receptions by a RB ever is 116, set by … Christian McCaffrey. There’s a reason why CMC has a 1999.5 total yardage projection in the Underdog’s Pick’em lobby right now (slightly juiced to the lower).

     

2. Jonathan Taylor – 16.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB1 on RB2 overall usage. Taylor will very likely be the 1st RB to hit 9.0 half PPR points by the Rams, who have a great defensive line. This is a challenging matchup, but it’s hard to fail on 90% snaps with great play-calling.

3. Bijan Robinson – 17.7 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Commanders are 3rd-best against fantasy RBs so far, and the Falcons are coming out of a stone-cold disaster on offense. They’ve fired a coach and Penix was sat in the 4th quarter after awkward mechanics and tentative decisions creating a lot of bad reps. Bijan is the easy button in the offense, which is why Atlanta is 28th in neutral pass rate. All of the noise around him is a bigger deal for everyone else. He’s the RB4 on RB6 usage, even with a season-low 10.5 expected half PPR points in last week’s shutout.

4. James Cook – 14.7 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Bills project for the most points (32.5) as 16.5-point favorites (!!!), and the Saints are 6th-worst against fantasy RBs and have missed EDGE1 Chase Young. Cook is the RB2 on RB7 usage, which is up 3.6 expected half PPR points versus 2024.

     

5. Saquon Barkley – 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Buccaneers are the best in rushing EPA allowed on the 3rd-best YPC to RBs (3.0), though they placed DT Calijah Kancey on IR recently.

   • We’ve yet to see the explosive run from Barkley this year, possibly because his LG, RG, and RT are playing through injuries. This was a worry after a rare amount of touches last year, but Barkley is more likely just due for a big one soon. He’s the RB14 on RB4 usage.

6. Josh Jacobs – 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Packers project for the 2nd-most points (27.25) against the lowly Cowboys, and Jacobs is an obvious buy low per spreadsheets. Jacobs is the RB18 on RB5 usage. Time to cash in that regression.

   • He’s still without RT Zach Tom (oblique) and RG Aaron Banks (groin).

7. Jahmyr Gibbs – 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • Once again, the Lions are 1st in RB usage as an unit. That’s allowed Gibbs to be the RB6 on RB3 usage so far, despite a challenging schedule to open the year. Another test awaits. The Lions project for the 3rd-most points (26.75), but the Myles Garrett-led Browns have allowed 2.2 YPC to RBs and the 2nd-fewest fantasy points to the position. Something has to give here.

     

8. De’Von Achane

   • Is the OL, which is missing their RG and RT, bad? Absolutely. Is Achane also on pace for 102 receptions? Yes. The latter is more important and has been a sticky trend for years. He’s the RB7 on RB13 usage even with rookie Ollie Gordon stealing a goal-line carry last week.

   • The Jets have allowed at least 29 points in all 3 games and placed LB Quincy Williams (shoulder) on IR.

9. Omarion Hampton – 14.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Chargers project for the 7th-most points (25.25), and the Giants have allowed the 3rd-most rushing EPA on 5.2 YPC and the 4th-most fantasy points to RBs. That’s against Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Javonte Williams, and Kareem Hunt. It’s worth noting All Pro DT Dexter Lawrence is playing through injury right now.

   • After Najee Harris went down (achilles), Hampton was the only RB to touch the ball. He was thrown check-downs and hot-read outlets in the pass game, and then operated as a bellcow on the ground. All that led to a season-high 18.9 expected half PPR points, which would make him an elite RB1 if it held. This would be one of the luckiest run outs of the year, as Harris was equally snapping and touching the ball with Hampton before he was carted off.

     

10. Derrick Henry – 13.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

11. Kyren Williams – 14.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Rams project for the 4th-most points (26.5), and this is an eruption spot according to rushing EPA allowed against the Colts.

    • He’s the RB13 on RB10 usage so far. This is a 70% split in favor of Williams, which is worse than last year, but this Rams offense is better than the 2024 Rams when they were battling tons of injuries. It’s washing out so far. Hopefully stud OGs Kevin Dotson (cramps) and Steve Avila (ankle) can get back out there.

      

12. Jordan Mason – 13.9 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Vikings spent the offseason adding an early-down back to pair with their upgraded OL, which just welcomed back Pro Bowl LT Christian Darrisaw last week. Mason has done exactly what they envisioned and has allowed Minnesota to be 26th in neutral pass rate. He operated as a mini bellcow without Aaron Jones last week (12.5 expected half PPR points) in a game that didn’t even need a 3rd and 4th quarter. A stiffer test with the Steelers is on deck, but they’ve been more of a shower curtain than steel curtain so far.

13. Ashton Jeanty – 13.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Over the past two weeks, Jeanty lost the pass-game role. With that, he’s down in to just 10.2 expected half PPR points (RB26 usage), and it’s hard to be efficient when he’s being hit behind the line of scrimmage on average (obviously the worst in the NFL).

      

    • The good news is there are rumors of OL adjustments on the problematic interior, and the matchup is far easier this week. The Raiders project for the 11th-most points (23.75) against a Bears defense that’s 5th-worst against fantasy RBs on 5.3 YPC. They’ve allowed 5 RBs in 3 weeks to score 8+ half PPR points. DT Grady Jarrett isn’t practicing.

14. Bucky Irving – 14.1 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • This isn’t his fault, but Irving is the RB16 on RB9 usage. He might get All Pro LT Tristan Wirfs back, but he might be limited or not himself, and he won’t have his RG or RT either way. We’ve seen Irving as a receiver as a changeup before, and this would be the time to lean into that with Mike Evans out and Chris Godwin very limited if he can suit up.

    • Eagles EDGE Nolan Smith (IR), LB Zach Baun, LB Jihaad Campbell, and others are injured.

15. J.K. Dobbins – 76.5 total yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Broncos project for the 5th-most points (25.75), and the Bengals are getting smoked by fantasy RBs at the 2nd-worst rate despite only playing CLE, JAX, and MIN. Cincy didn’t have EDGE2 Shemar Stewart last week, and the Broncos offensive line remains elite. Dobbins is the clear lead back, has handled all goal-line carries, and is now ripping off explosive plays. R.J. Harvey is a distant rotational member for now.

      

16. Alvin Kamara – 12.7 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Saints project for the 2nd-fewest points (16.0) as 16.5-point road dogs. The way this gets home is a PPR Scam, or if the Bills without DT Ed Oliver (ankle) and LB Matt Milano (pec) continue to allow 5.6 YPC to RBs (2nd-worst). Kamara has been a PPR Scam in 1-of-3 games so far, as the RB22 on RB16 usage.

      

17. Cam Skattebo – 13.1 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Giants project for the 5th-fewest points (18.75), and the Chargers are 4th-best against fantasy RBs. Los Angeles is at least without EDGE1 Khalil Mack, and New York got Pro Bowl LT Andrew Thomas (foot) back last week in a limited basis. More importantly, the Giants are likely to play more uptempo with Jaxson Dart, who is also a legit threat in the zone read game which helps Skattebo out.

    • Tape wise, Skattebo has showed up all year. He’s physical but also running by some 1st-level defenders. Without Tyrone Tracy (shoulder), he was a bellcow like he was at Arizona State, leading to 14.5 expected half PPR points. That’d be RB13 usage if it held.

      

18. Trey Benson – 13.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

19. Javonte Williams – 12.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB5 on RB11 usage with a much-improved ground-game coordinator leading the way, and Williams himself is playing very well himself after a normal offseason without injury. That said, the Cowboys aren’t just missing chain-mover CeeDee Lamb. It’s also C Cooper Beebe (IR) and 1st-round RG Tyler Booker (IR) now, too. If this isn’t a “cluster injury” scenario, then what is?

    • Just as worrying, a date with a fully-revenged Micah Parsons is on deck. The Cowboys project for 20.25 points.

20. Chuba Hubbard – 12.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Panthers project for the 6th-fewest points (19.0), and the Patriots are 2nd-best in YPC to RBs (2.6) thanks to multiple key offseason additions up front. As a reminder, Carolina is without stud RG Robert Hunt and C Austin Corbett for months. They’ve been more pass heavy than last year with those two out and with WR Tetairoa McMillan balling out. Hubbard can contribute through the air enough, but he needs those if his volume is slightly down year-over-year. He’s the RB12 on RB15 usage so far.

21. Kenneth Walker – 11.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Zach Charbonnet (foot) was a full participant on Monday and should be back on a short week in Arizona. The Cardinals are dealing with major injuries (DTs L.J. Collier and Justin Jones are on IR in addition to the secondary pieces), and OC Klint Kubiak has passed the smell test so far. With Sam Darnold playing extremely well on top of it, this is an underrated spot for Seattle. Walker’s path to playing more than half the drives are up after his on-field performance and Charbs’ injury. If I’m wrong, here are his splits: 13.2 expected half PPR points last week versus 8.7 per game with Charbs in Weeks 1-2.

22. Travis Etienne – 10.8 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB10 on RB17 usage. This is a 1-2 punch in terms of touches with rookie LeQuint Allen popping on pass protection duties. Etienne and Tuten are making plays and mistakes, while the offense goes through growing pains. Last week was a season-low for Etienne (10.6 expected half PPR points) because of matchup. This week is slightly better in San Francisco with All Pro EDGE Nick Bosa on IR with a torn ACL.

      

23. David Montgomery – 10.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

24. Quinshon Judkins – 11.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Browns project for the 3rd-fewest points (17.75), and the Lions are the 2nd-best in rushing EPA allowed. But this is absolutely his backfield. Judkins had 15.5 expected half PPR points in his first week of full practices, and he once again flashed on film with great vision, burst, and balance.

      

25. Breece Hall

26. Jaylen Warren – 12.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Steelers project for the 7th-fewest points (19.5) against the chaos Vikings in another country. What can go wrong when the QB can’t move at all?

    • 3rd-round rookie Kaleb Johnson didn’t play in Week 3, and this isn’t the matchup for that to change yet. Just wanted to note Warren is averaging 3.1 YPC and is only the RB17 on RB8 usage, despite a RB Play of the Year candidate on a (rare) scramble drill reception.

      

27. D’Andre Swift – 12.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Bears project for the 10th-most points (24.25), and the Raiders look messy beyond EDGE Maxx Crosby after losing nearly half of their starters this offseason.

    • He’s the RB24 on RB17 usage. Swift can create explosives at any time but remains a frustrating watch on a play-by-play basis, enough so that the Bears are using very rare 02-personnel sets (0RB-2TE-3WR) with DJ Moore or Luther Burden at “RB”. He’s lucky that Day 3 rookie Kyle Monangai isn’t ready yet because a RB upgrade is warranted. Until then, Swift is a FLEX start.

28. Tony Pollard – 12.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Titans project for the fewest points (15.5) in Houston against aliens on the OL. If RT JC Latham can’t suit up (DNP Wednesday), then what are we doing here? Pollard saves it by play 90% snaps as usual without Tyjae Spears. This looks like more of a dud week, as it was in Week 18 against them (scoreless 2.8 YPC). He’s the RB25 on RB19 usage this year.

29. Chase Brown

    • The Bengals project for the 4th-fewest points (18.25), and Brown is coming off a season-low 11.0 expected half PPR points. He’s the least efficient RB according to my model behind a brutal OL, too. Brown needs more random big plays with his athleticism to overcome this suddenly miserable environment. Next up? The damn Broncos.

30. TreVeyon Henderson – 9.1 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Patriots project for the 9th-most points (24.5), and the Panthers are 1st in YPC allowed to RBs (5.7) after that explosive Week 1 from Travis Etienne. They don’t have a starting DT and LB right now.

    • It’s unclear what the coaching staff will do after sleeping on it, but last week, Henderson was a bellcow after Rhamondre Stevenson’s second fumble and Antonio Gibson’s first fumble. The Patriots’ beat reporting lineup is good, so we’ll probably have a good clue of what’s happening by kickoff. Stay tuned. This assumes Henderson sets a season-high in usage while still playing in a committee. It’s worth noting he is dead last in rush yards over expected rate (17%) per NextGenStats.

      

31. Nick Chubb – 10.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Titans have allowed the most rushing EPA and the 3rd-most fantasy points to RBs. They’re clearly missing DT T’Vondre Sweat (IR). Will that matter for the Texans putrid OL? I’m less sure. Chubb isn’t wowing on film and neither is the new coaching staff. He’s the RB28 on RB30 usage, and that could get worse at any point. I’d sell and take your C.D.-level ROI from his late draft capital.

32. Chris Rodriguez

33. Bhayshul Tuten

    • His movement skills flash, and when he’s not running the wrong way on screens, Tuten has been fairly reliable. He’s only the RB31 on RB46 usage, but the gap between he and Travis Etienne is slowly closing.

34. Kareem Hunt – 37.5 total yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

35. Rhamondre Stevenson

36. Zach Charbonnet – 8.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

37. Ollie Gordon

38. Isiah Pacheco – 46.5 total yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

39. Jacory Croskey-Merritt

    • He was a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday (knee).

    • The Austin Ekeler role was largely divvied up to Jeremy McNicols (pass downs) and Chris Rodriguez (starter on base downs), rather than giving it to Bill. That’s not too crazy, but Bill looked like a better player than C-Rod in Week 3. Even if JCM gets a bigger piece of the pie, which is necessary to be reliable, are we sure the Commanders are a good environment for him? They’re 28th in RB usage so far with Deebo Samuel and Jayden Daniels available to vulture. The ceiling, aside from explosive plays, is harder to squint and see.

40. Tyler Allgeier

41. RJ Harvey

1. Puka Nacua – 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Rams are 4th in projected points as hosts to the Colts, who have had injuries in the secondary. New DC Lou Anarumo can cook against inexperienced QBs/OCs. That’s not the case here. Colts SCB Kenny Moore (achilles) was limited. He’d see a ton of Nacua, who is now in a version of the Cooper Kupp role with Davante Adams lining up at X receiver. Nacua is on pace for 2.3M receptions this year, per sources. (It’s actually 164.)

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 84.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR5 on WR9 usage, and the tape has been excellent. JSN isn’t a full-time slot anymore, and despite not having above-average speed, he’s making it work with releases, tempo, and great hands. JSN even stacked an outside CB for an explosive post reception last week. On top of it, Sam Darnold is passing the eye and metric tests.

   • The Cardinals are without CBs Garrett Williams and Will Johnson. This is a great spot for him.

4. Malik Nabers – 64.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The Giants ran an uptempo offense with Jaxson Dart in the preseason because that’s what he was used to at Ole Miss. Dart also threw a bunch of RPOs, which tend to go to the WR1 in an offense. This QB change is an upgrade for Nabers most likely. He’s the WR9 on WR3 usage, despite showing very little effort on some reps. Nabers should be inspired here, even if New York is projected for the 5th-fewest points against one of the best pass defenses.

5. Nico Collins – 72.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

6. Justin Jefferson – 73.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR24 on WR30 usage in a new far-more balanced offense. The Vikings are 30th in WR usage so far on the No. 26 neutral pass rate.

   • Steelers CB1 Joey Porter (hamstring) was limited.

7. Rome Odunze – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR3 on WR7 usage, running a little hot with coverage busts and CBs falling over. But Odunze is the clear top dog in the standard dropback game and could have an even bigger year if he caught a couple other passes off his hands. The Bears are more pass-heavy than expected because the ground game is so bad. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart against the Raiders.

8. Davante Adams – 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR12 on WR1 usage, while lapping Nacua on end zone targets (8-to-0). The Rams are 4th in projected points as hosts to the Colts, who have had injuries in the secondary. New DC Lou Anarumo can cook against inexperienced QBs/OCs. That’s not the case here.

   • He’s missed two practices with a hamstring. We’ll see.

9. Brian Thomas – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR52 on WR8 usage. The drops and zone feel have been extremely frustrating, but the splash plays are right there. He’s not NextGenStats’ fastest receiver by accident. Without Dyami Brown (shoulder) and with Travis Hunter stuck in the slot as a part-time player, the offense is desperate for Thomas to break out right now. The runway for a massive rest of the year is right there, too. Jacksonville WRs have combined for the 2nd-most expected fantasy points this year.

     

10. George Pickens – 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR20 on WR14 usage and had a season-high 16.4 expected half PPR points last week with CeeDee Lamb (ankle) leaving. Pickens needs to show up for a team that won’t be able to run the ball as well with two injured interior OL. Pickens will likely catch negative game script here. It’s not an easy matchup with the Packers, but the Cowboys fast-paced and pass-heavy offense are the more important things to look at. Pickens, in a contract year, absolutely needs these games to be big to earn a massive bag next offseason. It’s go time.

11. Courtland Sutton – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR16 on WR29 usage despite a rare total dud in Week 2. Sutton is the WR21 on WR11 usage since the beginning of last year and is averaging 75 YPG over his last 14 contests. He should be trusted in great matchups like this one against the Bengals. CB1 Cameron Taylor-Britt and EDGE2 Shemar Stewart have missed time, and the Broncos are 5th in projected points (25.75).

12. Ricky Pearsall – 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Jauan Jennings (ankle) missed on Wednesday and Thursday, while Brock Purdy was limited. We’ll know more later, but Pearsall had a season-high 16.3 expected half PPR points last week as the clear-cut pass game alpha. That was just 10.6 per game in the first two contests.

    • The 49ers are 7th in projected points against the Jaguars, who have a nice CB1 in Tyson Campbell and a great pass rush. This is a fine matchup for the WR19 on WR16 usage.

13. Garrett Wilson – 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He had a season-high 16.5 expected half PPR points last week with Tyrod Taylor, but the less-bankable Justin Fields is back from concussion. Wilson will be volatile week-to-week. This is a week to feel confident with the Dolphins invisible secondary on deck.

14. Ladd McConkey – 63.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • A 20% target share seems like the floor for his skillset, and the Chargers are 1st in WR usage as a team. McConkey does face tougher target competition than expected, however, with both Keenan Allen (WR7 on WR6 usage) and Quentin Johnson (WR6 on WR10 usage) balling. They will likely trade big weeks, and McConkey remains the best player on film. I’m sticking with some prior here. He’s the WR50 on WR35 usage so far. I’m buying as a Round 3 value.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart. The Giants have been gashed in the secondary for the entire year, and the Chargers are 8th in projected points.

15. Keenan Allen – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR7 on WR6 usage this year, and if we use the end of 2023, Keenan has a 8-for-86 average in his last 10 games with Justin Herbert. This is the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL, so this is a somewhat sustainable pace for the zone eater.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart. The Giants have been gashed in the secondary for the entire year, and the Chargers are 8th in projected points.

16. Emeka Egbuka – 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Eagles’ CB2 battle has flamed out. Jakorian Bennett is on IR and Adoree’ Jackson was a DNP. With Chris Godwin expected back, it’s possible Egbuka sees some snaps against stud CB1 Quinyon Mitchell but also gets some BBQ chicken against the other outside CB. He’s the WR10 on WR25 usage. The Bucs are 8th-lowest in projected points with their OL completely banged up.

17. Chris Olave – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR32 on WR2 overall usage, making him the spreadsheet’s biggest buy low. We’ll chase expected points in this bad offense, but Olave’s role has changed and that provides him with a nice floor. All 10 of his receptions last week, a career-high by the way, came within 10 air yards. Olave is benefitting from a lot of quick outs, screens, and hitches in the league’s fastest-paced offense. Next up? 16.5-point dogs in Buffalo. Targets will be there.

      

18. Jakobi Meyers – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Bears stink, and slot CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring) isn’t practicing and outside CB1 Jaylon Johnson is on IR. This is the best matchup possible for Meyers, especially as Brock Bowers isn’t fully himself. He’s the WR25 on WR20 usage this year, and those are similar rankings to his 2024 self. There’s nobody more under-appreciated in terms of consistency, and the Raiders are 9th in projected points this week. Maybe we get a legit ceiling game out of him.

19. Zay Flowers – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • We were rug pulled last week after having 40% targets in the first two weeks. It happens, I guess. Flowers is still the WR14 on WR22 usage this season and gets another matchup where the game script should be largely neutral. Chiefs CB2 Kristian Fulton (ankle) was a DNP, but stud CB1 Trent McDuffie should line up with Flowers plenty. The Ravens are 6th in projected points.

20. A.J. Brown – 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Eagles were forced into passing, and Brown was finally used on go balls. In the first two weeks, only 19% of his routes were go routes. Last week, that jumped to 33% and it really worked. AJB was a total bully and he had his usual extra gear, unlike Week 1. Brown is still at the mercy of an outlier-low pass volume, but the ceiling path remains whenever they want to push things. He’s the WR38 on WR42 so far this year and has been the WR21 since last year, including the NFL Playoffs.

    • The Bucs have had Jalen Hurts’ number historically because of crazy pressure looks. It’s a fair critique for the new OC to have so few deep shots dialed up, especially with some iffy pass protection setups. That makes me a tad nervous here.

21. Ja’Marr Chase – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • As expected, Chase had a season-low 6.8 expected half PPR points with Jake Browning panicking against DC Brian Flores. This is another massive challenge in Denver against All Pro CB1 Pat Surtain. The Bengals are 4th-worst in projected points (18.25).

22. Drake London – 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Falcons are making me nervous. The coaching staff is getting fired, and London isn’t playing in the slot nearly as much as last year. The Falcons aren’t in 3-WR sets as often, have plummeted to 28th in neutral pass rate, and aren’t throwing over the middle. All of these are signs they don’t fully trust Michael Penix, who is spraying passes on top of this. London still has a 25% target share and WR18 usage, but the downside case is starting to show itself.

23. Tetairoa McMillan – 67.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR29 on WR13 usage, as a spreadsheet buy low. McMillan is awesome on film and has been narrowly missed a few other times. He’ll be matched up with strong CB1 Christian Gonzalez this week. That’ll be a great one for the sickos.

    • The rookie finished Week 3 but popped up as a DNP (calf) on Wednesday. Panthers TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (DNP) and WR2 Xavier Legette (DNP) aren’t practicing.

24. Deebo Samuel

    • Injuries are breaking his way. Austin Ekeler (IR) and Terry McLaurin (DNP) open up touches, and Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell (hamstring) was a DNP. This is a great spot, and Deebo is already the WR17 on WR34 usage.

25. Quentin Johnston – 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR6 on WR10 usage in the most pass-heavy offense in neutral situations, and QJ isn’t being asked to run the sideline go balls that he struggled with earlier in his career. OC Greg Roman, who knows ball, is increasing his slants, digs, crossers, and posts to allow for more yards after catch opportunities, which is by far his best trait as an outside receiver.

    • This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart. The Giants have been gashed in the secondary for the entire year, and the Chargers are 8th in projected points.

26. Michael Pittman – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The improved QB play has specifically elevated Pittman. He’s the WR13 on WR46 usage, and Daniel Jones has been willing to throw over the middle to him. Alec Pierce (concussion) is likely out now, and Rams CB1 Akhello Witherspoon is on IR. This is a great opportunity for the Trojan with Indy projected to lose by 3.5 points in a dome. This is a homecoming for him.

27. Tyreek Hill

    • He’s the WR22 on WR28 usage this year has been the WR31 since last year kicked off. He’ll see some CB1 Sauce Gardner here, but the Jets are 3rd-worst in passing EPA allowed and Hill still looks really fast on film. The problem has been Tua Turndownthethrowoverthemiddle.

28. Matthew Golden – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He played 86% of the routes last week without Jayden Reed and nearly had a 96-yard score. This is the best his outlook has looked, and that’s before seeing the schedule. The Cowboys have been shredded by everyone. They’re blowing coverages and don’t have the high-end talent anywhere on the field. CB1 DaRon Bland (foot) was limited and CB2 Trevon Diggs (shoulder) didn’t practice. Neither are the same player as before. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart. The Packers are 2nd in projected points.

      

29. Xavier Worthy – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

30. DJ Moore – 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR40 on WR38 usage, while seeing some “RB” snaps and a couple fewer targets per game. Moore’s expected half PPR points have dropped by 3.4 compared to last year. That’s a Rome Odunze stat. This is a good week to fight back against the Raiders’ non-existent secondary. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart.

31. Parker Washington

    • Dyami Brown (shoulder) was a DNP, and HC Liam Coen said Travis Hunter will not be playing outside of the slot this year. That leaves Washington as a full-time player for now. He had a season-high 16.1 expected half PPR points last week, though drops and sailed throws left his box score lacking.

32. Romeo Doubs – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Without Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) last week, Doubs increased his route participation to 94%. This is an eruption spot per the matchup chart with the Cowboys allowing the 2nd-most passing EPA. Outside CB Trevon Diggs is battling a knee injury and was cooked by Rome Odunze last week. The Packers are 2nd in projected points (27.25).

33. Keon Coleman – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • His expected half PPR points by week: 17.1, 3.3, and 5.6. The Week 1 outing will be the outlier because the Bills won’t be trailing by multiple scores for maybe the entire rest of the season. Coleman remains an inconsistent player in a part-time role attached to the highest team total of the week. This is another blowup spot for Coleman, who is the WR28 on WR43 usage this year on average. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart. The Bills are projected for 31.75 points.

34. DeVonta Smith – 49.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR39 on WR44 usage this year and has been the WR26 since last year, when he’s been top-3 in per-target efficiency according to my model. Smith’s best games have been without A.J. Brown, who is healthy right now, and the Eagles’ team total sits at just 23.5 points (11th best).

35. Marvin Harrison – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR43 on WR40 usage. Marv has been moved around a bit more, but he’s still a wild card at the catch point and isn’t going to be a high target share player because he’s so lackluster after the catch. The matchup in Seattle is as difficult as it gets, especially if LT Paris Johnson can’t suit up. The good news (if any) is when Marv hits, it really hits because it’s typically on crossing routes and posts. When they don’t hit, well, it’s not great.

36. Rashid Shaheed – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR41 on WR32 usage with at least 8.7 expected half PPR points in all 3 games. The Saints being the most fast-paced offense in the NFL and this week’s matchup as 16.5-point dogs play into a ton of targets being up for grabs. Shaheed has the speed and skills to take off at any time, especially against a defense that’s missing key starters and is generally slow.

37. Jaylen Waddle

    • He’s the WR23 on WR45 usage this year with a slightly-improved target share (15% to 18%) sans Jonnu Smith. This week, he’ll avoid CB1 Sauce Gardner, who has been shadowing opposing WR1s sometimes. The Jets are 3rd-worst in passing EPA allowed.

38. Wan’Dale Robinson – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR18 on WR23 usage, and the Giants may play with a lot more uptempo and short passes with Jaxson Dart. All that points to Wan’Dale being playable, especially in full PPR leagues.

39. Calvin Ridley – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The usage has been consistent, finishing between 8.7 and 9.9 expected half PPR points in all three contests. Unfortunately, Ridley has dropped some balls and has been missed by Cam Ward on others. He’s a buy low as the WR70 on WR36 usage, with a couple of very difficult matchups already in the rear view.

    • This ranking will be heavily impacted by All Pro CB1 Derek Stingley’s status after starting the week as a DNP (oblique), but even if he misses, this is a massive disadvantage in the trenches. The Titans project for just 15.75 points.

40. Tre Tucker

    • He’s playing 92% routes and has a 20% target share so far. The targets might slightly tick down with Brock Bowers improving off injury, but Tucker is a great fit for this downfield passing offense. Tucker found soft zones last week, caught a screen, and blew by defenders with truly elite speed. Geno Smith will find him for spike weeks throughout the year. Those will be difficult to predict, but he’s the WR4 on WR24 usage. There’s some “this year’s Darnell Mooney” appeal.

41. Tee Higgins – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • This is from ESPN’s Mike Clay: “Last time Tee Higgins was shadowed by Riley Moss: 11 catches, 131 yards, 3 TDs.” This is because CB1 Pat Surtain is likely to face Ja’Marr Chase. Now, Moss is a better player and Joe Burrow isn’t walking that door without a limp, so this is just saving him from being ranked in the 50s. Higgins had a season-low in usage last week on an 8% target share. The Broncos will be able to rush the passer against this Bengals OL, too. The Bengals are 4th-worst in projected points (18.25).

42. Troy Franklin

43. DK Metcalf – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR26 on WR52 usage in a very unfun offense in a terrible matchup for the immobile Aaron Rodgers, who is setting a career low in average depth of target. There won’t be many downfield shots against the Vikings, and Metcalf isn’t a manufactured touch player usually. His static role has decreased his expected half PPR points per game by 3.4 from last year. The Steelers are 7th-lowest in projected points.

44. Jameson Williams – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR35 since last year but his weekly finishes are a total rollercoaster ride. The Lions are running the ball in neutral situations more than last year, and the offense is unlikely to average 33 points per game as they did in 2024. He’s the WR34 on WR72 usage this year with a couple signature crossing-route explosives.

    • He’ll see plenty of CB1 Denzel Ward, who doesn’t travel inside often, but the Lions are still projected for 27.25 points (tied for the 2nd most).

45. Darnell Mooney – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • A couple massive drops cost Mooney, who is the WR73 on WR26 usage and a solid 23% targets per route rate. The offense isn’t passing or taking downfield risks at the same rate as last year, but Mooney getting healthier could be the answer to that eventually. Michael Penix isn’t as accurate as Kirk Cousins.

46. Khalil Shakir – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s half PPR’s WR51 on WR55 usage and profiles better in full PPR as an underneath target. This is an eruption spot per the passing EPA matchup chart, however. The Saints are struggling and can’t rush the passer. The Bills are projected for 31.75 points.

47. Christian Kirk – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

48. Tyquan Thornton

49. Stefon Diggs – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s only a part-time player to start the year, but this is a breakout spot against the Panthers, who might have CB1 Jaycee Horn on X-receiver Kayshon Bouttte. The Patriots are 10th in projected points and don’t have any bankable fantasy assets. Someone is popping up out of nowhere here. Perhaps Diggs is ready for more snaps in Week 4.

50. Cooper Kupp – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

51. Elic Ayomanor – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR33 on WR37 with a couple of fluky plays breaking his way, including that Cam Ward extended play touchdown and a 1-handed grab in contested situations. Ayomanor isn’t a reliable player yet and is constantly in the backpocket of CBs, but he’s out there as a full-time player.

52. Rashod Bateman – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Ravens are 6th in projected points, and if CB1 Trent McDuffie sees Zay Flowers and CB2 Kristian Fulton (ankle) can’t play, then Bateman looks like a sneaky option. He’s the WR61 on WR57 this year and is the WR47 since last year kicked off.

53. Jerry Jeudy – 48.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR63 on WR41 usage this year, with more target competition than he had last year (Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannin Jr., and both rookie RBs). They’ve also used him as an X-receiver more often, which is playing him out of position and highlighting his weaknesses more.

54. Cedric Tillman – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

55. Jordan Addison – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Vikings are 30th in WR usage so far on the No. 26 neutral pass rate. The QB play is way worse, and now T.J. Hockenson is healthy to compete for targets. I don’t see Addison seeing the same downfield shots as he did last year, and I know they won’t be completely as often as they did with Sam Darnold. I’d try to sell this before the data hits the box score.

56. Chris Godwin

    • He was a full participant on Wednesday and will make his debut as Mike Evans goes to the sideline with a hamstring. Godwin had a very serious dislocated ankle and most skill players coming off that specific injury are scaled into snaps and aren’t as efficient. Godwin also doesn’t have the elite OL and OC that he had the last couple years. He’s a bench stash until proven otherwise.

57. Travis Hunter

    • Shoutout to the haters on this one. Hunter hasn’t been able to handle full-time snaps on offense, and HC Liam Coen said he won’t play X or Z receiver this year. He’s essentially a slot-only player on offense and the CB3 on defense right now. Hunter has had multiple issues with the playbook on offense each game and has been thrown around with his lackluster size popping up, too. The Jaguars are 2nd in WR usage so far, but Hunter’s path to a major ceiling are slamming shut, even with Dyami Brown (shoulder) trending out. He’s the WR62 in usage.

58. Marquise Brown – 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

59. Kayshon Boutte – 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

60. Josh Downs – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

61. Dontayvion Wicks – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

1. Trey McBride – 66.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • I’d take him top-16 rest of season in full PPR redraft leagues. McBride is at 30% targets with the ground game and defense collapsing due to injuries. If the Cardinals are forced into more passes with a more difficult upcoming schedule, McBride can have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the tight end list.

2. Jake Ferguson – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He had a season-high 17.8 expected half PPR points last week with CeeDee Lamb (ankle) injured. He’s the reliable underneath target ideal for garbage time, and if you’ve seen the Cowboys defense, then you know there’ll be plenty of it. That’s especially true against the Packers this week.

     

3. Brock Bowers – 54.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He was a full participant in practice (knee), which is nice because Bowers wasn’t himself on film last Sunday. He should get better over the next couple of weeks, and it’s possible he lights up the box score here with Michael Mayer in concussion protocol as a DNP. Bowers turned into a full-time player without him. He’s been the TE12 on TE7 usage so far. It will get better.

4. Hunter Henry – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

5. Juwan Johnson – 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE4 on TE3 usage as a garbage time hero. Some of that will be helpful as 16.5-point dogs, but some of his targets are legit designed targets for him in normal situations. Johnson had a 3×1 backside isolated slant win against press man coverage on 3rd-and-2 just last week for example. With the Saints playing faster than any team, there’s room for multiple PPR Scams.

6. Tucker Kraft – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

7. Tyler Warren – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

8. Dalton Kincaid – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • The thesis wasn’t about Kincaid, as much as it was about the Bills being an elite offense (projected for 32.25 points this week) without an established top-end receiver. He’s still at 62% routes, but Kincaid is finding the end zone and is getting a couple of designed targets thrown his way. He’s the TE3 on TE8 usage to date.

9. Zach Ertz

   • In two games with Jayden Daniels, Ertz is averaging 8.9 expected half PPR points versus just 3.9 with Marcus Mariota last week. If Daniels returns and Terry McLaurin (quad) misses, Ertz is in a solid spot. Blocking TE John Bates and WR3 Noah Brown are also injured.

10. Mark Andrews

    • He had a season-high 9.6 expected half PPR points last week while trailing, adding a garbage time touchdown late. Andrews can always have multi-score games in this offense, but he’s the TE11 on TE18 this year and will face Isaiah Likely competition shortly, potentially this week. Andrews is TD-or-bust on a 13% target share.

11. Cole Kmet – 20.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

12. Travis Kelce – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE13 on TE15 usage, and Kelce hasn’t hit 8.8 expected half PPR points in a game yet. He’s playing with some better straight-line speed versus last year, but his hands and wiggle are a bit down.

13. Sam LaPorta – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

14. Brenton Strange

    • His usage has gone up each game because Travis Hunter is losing WR snaps, the other receivers drop the ball, and Dyami Brown (shoulder) is injured. Strange has been reliable and effective, and he’s up to TE18 on TE16 usage. The Jaguars are desperate for someone to line up correctly and catch the ball. Strange can do that.

15. Harold Fannin

    • He’s the TE14 on TE12 usage. Fannin continues to play at a high level in a variety of ways, including on some options routes and as a truck stick against zone. The path to a total ceiling is limited until David Njoku goes away, but Fannin is holding the line.

16. Cade Otton

    • In 3 games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last year, Otton had 9-81-2, 8-77-1, and 5-35-0 lines. This isn’t exactly that situation with Emeka Egbuka around, the OL banged up, the play-caller looking more solid than elite, and the Bucs unlikely to go 0-3 like they did then, but those were elite TE1 numbers in a small sample.

17. Kyle Pitts – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • In the two games with Darnell Mooney, Pitts’ expected half PPR points have dipped to 6.6 in a run-based offense that isn’t using play action well. I’ve liked his tape when targeted, but that’s not the point of fantasy.

18. Jonnu Smith – 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE20 on TE27 usage, but this is potential game to get him involved with the Vikings being too chaotic and aggressive for Aaron Rodgers to use the normal dropback game often. More Jonnu slip screens, flips, quick outs, and hitches would make sense to me.

19. T.J. Hockenson – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • The Vikings are 26th in neutral pass rate, and Jordan Addison returns, so it’s hard to find a voluminous target projection here. He’s the TE21 on TE17 usage so far, but it did majorly improve with Carson Wentz, who played fine (and a lot better than J.J. McCarthy in the first two weeks).

20. Dallas Goedert – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE10 on TE26 usage, removing his Week 2 absence. The Eagles are 29th in neutral pass rate, lead often, and have two others to throw to. Goedert has largely been TD-or-bust since Saquon Barkley arrived.

21. Oronde Gadsden

    • He’s absolutely on my radar. He was close to a “WR” in a funky Syracuse offense as a prospect, and Gadsden lit it up as a slot TE in Week 3 on multiple types of routes, leading to 12.1 expected half PPR points. Herbert and Harbaugh complemented him post-game, and he’d fit in this No. 1 neutral pass rate offense. Add him in deep leagues. Buy him in dynasty. The flashes are there very early into his career, and that’s rare at this position. TE Will Dissly (knee) was a DNP.

22. David Njoku – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

23. Chig Okonkwo – 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

24. Dalton Schultz – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog’s Pick’em.

25. Jake Tonges

1. Josh Allen – 23.6 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

2. Lamar Jackson – 22.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

3. Jalen Hurts – 21.0 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

4. Justin Herbert – 19.9 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

5. Patrick Mahomes – 19.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

   • Chiefs are projected for the 15th-most points (23.0) vs. BAL, who have been shredded by everyone. They have EDGE Kyle Van Noy and DTs Nnamdi Madubuike, Travis Jones, and Broderick Washington as DNPs, and their back seven has been picked apart. This is nowhere near the elite unit it could’ve been on paper. Mahomes should have Xavier Worthy back and Tyquan Thornton is a better outside receiver than what he’s had in recent games (somehow).

6. Caleb Williams – 18.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

7. Jayden Daniels

8. Bo Nix

9. Jordan Love – 17.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

10. Matthew Stafford – 18.0 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

11. Drake Maye – 18.9 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

12. Geno Smith – 18.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

13. Jared Goff – 16.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

14. Daniel Jones – 17.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

15. Kyler Murray – 17.7 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Cardinals are projected for the 21st-most points (21.0) vs. SEA. This is a very challenging matchup with the Seahawks front seven and play-making secondary, but Murray will at least get LT Paris Johnson back after a week of limited practices. I don’t see the Cardinals ground game having a lot of success, so roads lead back to Murray’s play making. It’d be nice if his receivers caught the ball routinely. No Zay Jones tonight for what it’s worth (nothing).

16. Brock Purdy

17. Tua Tagovailoa

18. C.J. Stroud – 17.0 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

19. Sam Darnold – 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

    • Seahawks are projected for the 18th-most points (22.5) at ARI, who won’t have CBs Will Johnson, Garrett Wilson, and some depth pieces at DT and CB. This is a good spot.

    • Darnold looks exactly like he did in 2024. He’s throwing the ball downfield and to the sideline very well, and he’s buying some time in/out the pocket with his athleticism. He’s a nice fit with OC Klint Kubiak who wants to push the ball downfield off play action. With Jaxson Smith-Njigba taking his final leap on tape, this is a sustainable situation for Darnold to execute within. He’s the most underrated QB in the NFL right now.

20. Dak Prescott – 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

21. Trevor Lawrence – 16.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

22. Baker Mayfield – 16.5 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

23. Jaxson Dart – 15.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

24. Bryce Young – 15.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

25. Carson Wentz – 14.8 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

26. Michael Penix – 15.4 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

27. Tyrod Taylor

28. Aaron Rodgers – 14.3 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

29. Jake Browning

30. Joe Flacco – 12.7 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

31. Cam Ward – 11.8 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

32. Spencer Rattler – 13.2 fantasy points in Underdog’s Pick’em.

The best defenses are the Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Lions, Bills, Chargers, Packers, and Seahawks. The next tier includes the Steelers, Patriots, Eagles, and Dolphins.