After an opening two weeks filled with plenty of favorites taking care of business, Week 3 finally introduced some chaos to the NFL. The Falcons became the first team favored by 4-plus points this season to lose outright when Carolina blanked them 30-0. The Packers then followed that up with a late 10-point collapse en route to a 13-10 loss at Cleveland.
As if the NFL didn’t dominate our weekends enough, we now have an international game in Dublin and a Monday Night Football doubleheader coming up. That’s seven different football viewing windows from Thursday through Monday. Godspeed to all of us who’ll be planted on the couch watching along like it’s our jobs. (OK, it is actually mine.)
I’m back with my thoughts on the entire Week 4 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5)
This line feels like a massive overreaction to what we saw from a Joe Burrow–less Cincinnati team last week. In Week 17 last year, Cincinnati was a 3.5-point favorite at home against the Broncos in a game both teams needed to secure a spot in the playoffs. What’s happened since then? The Bengals defense still stinks, and the offensive line has the same issues. Even if you flipped home field and downgraded Cincinnati by a full six points due to Burrow’s injury (which would be aggressive), you should not arrive at Denver being a full seven-point home favorite like they are in this game.
I understand all the concerns with Jake Browning going against this Denver defense and how troubling the matchup is for Cincinnati’s offensive line. That said, can you trust Denver’s offense to separate from anyone right now? The Broncos rank 31st in offensive success rate through three weeks, and they had just nine first downs last Sunday. Denver is also 26th in offensive series conversion rate, a metric that looks at how often you turn a first-and-10 into a fresh set of downs. Minnesota’s Brian Flores had the Bengals offense in hell last Sunday, and it’s led to a market overreaction here. I’m betting against Denver for the third time in three weeks.
Verdict: Bet Bengals +7.5 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Even though the Rams are dominating the field position battle thanks to Joshua Karty’s knuckleball kickoffs, I really like the matchups for both of these offenses on Sunday. The Rams’ second-half collapse in Philadelphia exposed concerns about the quality of their secondary. They rely on the defensive line dominating and wreaking havoc to cover for a flawed and undersized group in the backfield. After two weeks against the poor Titans’ and Texans’ passing games (plus a half against a run-heavy Philly), the Rams’ defensive metrics look a whole lot better than I think the unit actually is.
The Colts offensive line is playing at an elite level right now, and they’ll be able to hold up against the Rams’ biggest strength (Indy is second in pass blocking grade, per PFF) and give Daniel Jones enough time to throw the ball. Even if deep threat Alec Pierce (concussion) doesn’t play, the Colts’ receiving room is as versatile as any in the league.
On the other side of this matchup, Indianapolis is seriously lacking a pass rush. The Colts are 29th in pass rush win rate through three weeks, and second-year edge Laiatu Latu missed a game with injury and has struggled to get pressure consistently when on the field. Nickel corner Kenny Moore has been one of their most important players for years, and his absence due to a calf injury is especially important with Puka Nacua on the other side this Sunday.
Red zone offense has been an issue for both teams, but otherwise, they should move the ball up and down the field all game.
Verdict: Bet over 49.5 (-105)
Washington Commanders (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
I think this line is another overreaction to one bad game from Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons, and now is the time to buy back in on Atlanta. The Falcons closed +3.5 in Washington at the end of last season with both teams near full strength and Penix making his first road start. That game went to overtime, and Washington eventually won by six.
If you flipped home field and made injury adjustments for the Commanders’ absences, it would be hard to make Washington a road favorite on Sunday. Not only is Jayden Daniels not 100 percent certain to play—he was limited at practice on Wednesday—but Terry McLaurin has a quad injury and seems unlikely to go on Sunday. The Commanders put edge Deatrich Wise Jr., corner Jonathan Jones, and safety Will Harris on the injured reserve this week.
Since the start of 2024, Washington has allowed the third-highest explosive play rate in the league, and that was before they had to bring in Darnell Savage from free agency to add defensive depth. We saw in Week 2 how much Green Bay was able to scheme its talented playmakers into space against the Commanders to generate explosives, and this game could look similar given the state of the Washington secondary. One tried-and-true rule to remember about betting the NFL is that no one is as good or as bad as they looked last week.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Jacksonville survived an ugly divisional game on Sunday at home against Houston, but it’s hard to take anything positive for the Jaguars offense from that game. They averaged 4.4 yards per play and went 4-for-16 on third and fourth downs. Trevor Lawrence connected with Brian Thomas Jr. only twice, and the running game produced only 3.5 yards per carry. The Houston defense is elite, but the Jaguars offense was never in sync at all.
I’m also not sure how much the Jaguars defense has really improved. The pass rush is much better than last year, but arguably no team has faced an easier schedule of opposing offenses (Carolina, Cincinnati without Burrow, and Houston) through the first three weeks. The Niners offense will be a much stiffer test, and I want no part of Lawrence in comeback mode if the Jags are playing from behind.
San Francisco’s offense has dealt with a bunch of injuries to begin the season, but the Niners still rank sixth in offensive success rate. The underlying box score from the win against the Cardinals last week was considerably more lopsided than the final score suggested. Plus, there’s the potential return of Brock Purdy from injury.
You could make a convincing case that San Francisco is better on both sides of the ball. At home and at the -3 price, the Niners are yet again a bet for me.
Verdict: Bet 49ers -3 (-112)
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Welcome to Week 4, when everyone who likes the Chiefs will tell you why they can’t go 1-3 and everyone who likes the Ravens will tell you the same. My Ringer colleague Sheil Kapadia pointed out that the Kansas City offense is still eighth in EPA per drive, which feels impossible if you’ve watched them try to play football in the first three weeks. The reason they’ve squeaked just enough offense out of this group is that Patrick Mahomes is among the league leaders in EPA from scrambles.
He’s doing just enough improvising and meandering around defenders to keep the chains moving, albeit with few explosive plays and no consistency. The Ravens defense had major issues against the elite offenses of Buffalo and Detroit, but those teams are founded on a running game and a dominant offensive line—neither of which Kansas City has.
The Ravens might lead the league in silly plays and late-game collapses per season, but I will return with the tried-and-true Ravens first-half bet and hope to avoid any fourth-quarter shenanigans from Mahomes and Kansas City. The Ravens have so many more paths to easy offense in this game.
Verdict: Bet Ravens first-half winner (-115)
The Rest of the Slate
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The market took notice of the Seahawks’ dominant win against the Saints on Sunday and flipped them from a two-point underdog on the look-ahead line to a small road favorite in this divisional short-week game. The story of Seattle’s win over New Orleans was short fields and special teams. The Seahawks’ first four touchdowns came via a 55-yard drive that started near midfield after a turnover on downs, a Tory Horton punt return, a blocked punt that put Seattle at the New Orleans 11-yard line, and a 38-yard drive after a big kick return. Once the score was 28-3 early in the second quarter, the game was over for the limited Saints offense. It’s pretty unlikely that Seattle will have a special teams performance anything like that again all season long. The Seahawks haven’t been able to run the ball in two of their three games this year—with the exception coming against the injured Pittsburgh defensive front—and that raises a red flag about how sustainable their deep passing attack will be.
The Cardinals defense also performed admirably on Sunday given all of their injuries, holding San Francisco to 16 points and producing multiple key stops in the red zone to keep the game closer than the underlying box score suggested it was. These two teams enter Week 4 in the top 10 for explosive play rate allowed, and this game profiles as an ugly, lower-scoring Thursday night game as a result.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin, Ireland)
The market on Sunday opened with this game as a toss-up, and early money on Monday morning came in on Minnesota to push them out to the current line of -2.5. The Pittsburgh offense is among the worst in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers ranks 30th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks in dropback success rate. Minnesota had a defensive hiccup in Week 2 with multiple key players out, but it snapped right back into place with a dominant showing on Sunday against the Bengals. The Brian Flores defense is largely designed to create pressure and funnel the ball into quick, short throws underneath, and that’s where Pittsburgh’s offense has lived for the past few weeks. The offensive line has had major issues in pass protection (31st in pass block win rate), and that feels like a major problem given the limitations of the 41-year-old quarterback’s mobility.
I expect a ton of short underneath throws from Rodgers that get shut down by a swarming Minnesota defense. I would only bet against Pittsburgh in this spot, but I need to see more from Carson Wentz before buying into the Vikings.
Verdict: Lean Vikings -2.5
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
The Bills don’t really play a style of football that is conducive to covering large spreads like this. Even in its win against Miami in Week 3, Buffalo barely threw the ball downfield. Josh Allen didn’t scramble or run nearly as much as he would in a higher-leverage game. The Bills are happy to lean on their strong running game, the offensive line, and the precision of their quarterback to move the ball consistently and efficiently.
Buffalo’s defense has been pretty mediocre through three weeks. They rank 18th in success rate and 21st in EPA per drive. This cover probably comes down to two things: whether the Saints can clean up their disastrous special teams after Week 3 and whether Spencer Rattler can lead a successful garbage-time offense. I’m not too interested in betting on either side of this game.
Verdict: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
The Cleveland defensive line has now completely wrecked the Bengals, Ravens, and Packers offenses in three consecutive weeks. Jordan Love was running for his life on Sunday, taking constant sacks and consistently struggling to even generate first downs. The addition of rookie defensive tackle Mason Graham in the middle has made a massive difference for the Browns, and Myles Garrett has been the league’s most effective pass rusher through three weeks.
So how will all of that hold up on the road in Detroit? The Lions have a much better offensive line than the Browns’ previous opponents, but Cleveland’s defensive line is the great equalizer. It would be under or nothing for me here.
Verdict: Pass
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
I think that a lot of people will be surprised to see the line move toward New England this week after the Patriots lost at home to Pittsburgh by seven and the Panthers shut out Atlanta 30-0. The Patriots moved the ball really well last week, and they rank seventh in series conversion rate through three weeks. Ultimately, five turnovers were the difference, but it wasn’t all bad for New England’s offense. And on the other side, even though the Panthers won comfortably, concerns remain for their offense after Bryce Young averaged 5 yards per attempt and the running game was inconsistent. The Panthers benefited from a defensive touchdown and excellent field position throughout the game. The Carolina secondary gets a significant upgrade from me because of its recent showings, but the offense will struggle to run the ball given offensive line injuries and the solid Patriots defensive front.
I liked New England early in the week at -4, but now that the line is out to -5.5, no bet for me anymore.
Verdict: Lean New England -5.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at New York Giants
The Chargers would have been one of my favorite five if the Giants had stuck with Russell Wilson for one more week because there’s no worse matchup in the league for Wilson’s moonball style than this Jesse Minter–coached defense. Now that Jaxson Dart is in for New York, I’m still betting on the Chargers, but with less confidence than I was before.
Dart’s first start introduces quite a bit more uncertainty, but this is a difficult defense to make your NFL debut against. The Chargers will force Dart to be extremely methodical and patient, which could be really difficult if the Giants fall behind early.
The move to Dart also reeks of desperation for the Giants and head coach Brian Daboll. The Giants are 0-3, and boos rained down on MetLife Stadium on Sunday night as Wilson lobbed passes out of the back of the end zone. At this point, this feels like a Hail Mary play that the rookie quarterback might not be ready or good enough for. The Giants defense has improved on the back end, and they’ve been able to generate a ton of pressure. Since they’re going against an injured Chargers offensive line, I think under is a better way of playing this matchup.
Verdict: Bet under 44.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has been a house of horrors for the Eagles in the past, and the injury situation is really important to monitor for both teams in this matchup.
Tampa could benefit from the potential returns of left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin, who both participated in practice on Wednesday. But the offensive line is still extremely shorthanded, and now star receiver Mike Evans is out with a hamstring injury. The Eagles placed pass rusher Nolan Smith on injured reserve, and linebackers Jihaad Campbell and Zack Baun were limited in practice on Wednesday. The Eagles defense lost a ton of depth in the offseason, and they have not been great this season at rushing the passer or covering. Jalen Carter hasn’t looked like the All-Pro many hoped he’d be after a dominant 2024 campaign, and the second cornerback spot can be exploited as well.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ running game has had limited success, and the strength of the Tampa defense continues to be stopping the run, thanks to Vita Vea. Could that mean that we’ll see the Eagles open up their passing game like they did in the second half against the Rams? If so, this total looks quite low to me. I’m waiting on more clarity on the injury situations before betting, but I’m tempted by a Bucs team total over or a game over.
One other important factor to consider here is the extreme heat. Sunday’s forecast in Tampa is 91 degrees with high humidity, which will be a difficult test for both teams, especially Philadelphia, which isn’t as acquainted with those conditions.
Verdict: Pass for now until learning more injury news
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Somehow, the Titans are not the worst offense in the NFL (or even in this matchup). That title belongs to Houston, which has 38 points and three touchdowns total in three weeks. The Texans are 31st in offensive success rate, and I’ve written at length every week in this column about why I think the offense is unfixable. The Titans’ run defense has fallen off a cliff in the past two weeks without T’Vondre Sweat, but the Texans can’t run on anyone because of their offensive line issues. The Titans’ penalties and special teams miscues are back in full force, but can Houston even exploit this? Texans star corner Derek Stingley Jr. is unlikely to play on Sunday due to an oblique injury, but Tennessee’s wide receivers room is one of the weakest in the NFL. Calling this the Battle of Mid would be generous right now.
These offenses are the two worst in the NFL at turning a first-and-10 into another fresh set of downs. It should quickly turn into a punt fest, and if we can avoid turnovers and short fields, this total will go under yet again. I’ve bet the under in all three Houston games, and I’m back for more on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet under 38.5 (-110)
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (PK)
Chicago’s defense held Dallas to 14 points last week, but multiple end zone turnovers masked the fact that the Cowboys offense still moved the ball up and down the field on the Bears. Dallas had almost 400 yards of offense; the Cowboys ran for 6.1 yards per attempt, and the Bears caught a break with the first-quarter injury to CeeDee Lamb.
The real test of Week 4 is trying to sort out whether the Bears offense is trending upward or whether they just happened to be the team who played the Cowboys last week. You could make a convincing case for both sides, although I’m not sure that this Raiders defense is the one I necessarily want to bet against with Caleb Williams.
The Bears offense continues to dominate the scripted portion at the beginning of games, and that could be a good way to look at betting this game in the derivative market. You could look at a first-quarter over or maybe look to grab the Raiders live. Las Vegas should be able to hit explosives in this game given the continued injury crisis in Chicago’s secondary.
Verdict: Lean Raiders ML (-110)
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
I think it’s clear that Green Bay will be one of the most popular betting sides of the week in the Micah Parsons revenge game. CeeDee Lamb is out for Dallas, their secondary is a sieve, and the Packers in theory will come out angry after a loss. Throw in some injuries for Dallas on the offensive line, and you end up with Green Bay in a dream spot to absolutely crush the Cowboys on Sunday night.
The price to bet on Green Bay is inflated, and you’re now paying a real premium to bet on them. The Cowboys defense might be the ultimate get-right spot for opposing offenses, but I’m not going to pay extra to find out. Easy pass for me, and I would even be tempted to bet Dallas at home if it got above 7 by kickoff.
Verdict: Pass
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Miami has a sizable rest advantage coming off a Thursday game, a considerably easier path to success on offense, and a slight home field bonus. Still, I couldn’t possibly lay the 2.5 here. It felt like the Dolphins squeezed every ounce of offense they could out of the game against Buffalo and still needed a ton of third-down conversions to move the ball. They struggled to generate any real explosive plays, too. The NFL gave us two Monday night games, and while you’re probably going to want to bet both of them, I’d just stick to the Bengals.
Verdict: Pass
Favorite five (7-8):
Bengals +7.5
Falcons +1.5
Colts-Rams over 49.5
49ers -3
Ravens first half -115
Other bets:
Seahawks-Cardinals under 43.5
Kyler Murray interception (-110)
Chargers-Giants under 44.5
Titans-Texans under 38.5
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.Source link
