We’re flipping the script. Last week, we examined the dreaded 0-2 start, looking at the winless teams across the NFL to see which could still realistically make a playoff run. This time, we’re going to look at those wondrous 3-0 starts to see if any of the six remaining undefeated teams are frauds.
Well, “frauds” may be unfair. According to my NFL Projection Model, each remaining unbeaten team has at least an 80% chance to make the playoffs. And even that might be selling them short. Since the postseason field expanded to 14 teams, 86% of teams that started 3-0 have gone on to make the playoffs.
So, while I’m not picking against any of these teams to be playing in mid-January, I don’t think the ceiling is the same for all of them, either. My model sees only one as a top-level contender to win the Super Bowl, while the others, well, I’m going to need to see more.
Let’s take a look at the odds before diving into analysis for each team:
Buffalo Bills
There isn’t much to say here. The Bills entered the season as heavy favorites to win the AFC East while harboring realistic aspirations of making the Super Bowl. That remains well within their reach after knocking off a fellow Super Bowl favorite in the Baltimore Ravens in the opener, before dispatching a pair of division foes in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Quarterback and reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is the engine that makes this thing go, but don’t sleep on how impactful defensive tackle Ed Oliver is on the other side of the ball. He’s been a wrecking ball, so far.
Philadelphia Eagles
As you can see, the model isn’t too impressed with the reigning champs — or at least not as impressed as you’d expect. Their 6.2% odds to win the Super Bowl rank sixth behind the Bills (16.8%), Ravens (12.2%), Green Bay Packers (8.1%), Detroit Lions (6.5%) and Los Angeles Rams (6.3%). Why? Well, for all but a quarter and a half, the Eagles offense has looked a bit sleepy. Still, they’ve managed to start the season 3-0 with all games being decided by one possession. Looking back at last season, the Eagles are now 11-1 in one-score games when quarterback Jalen Hurts starts and finishes the game. With the controversy surrounding them — the Tush Push rhetoric has really picked up steam lately — and their consistent success in nail-biters, the Eagles kind of remind me of the Kansas City Chiefs of the past few seasons.
Is that a compliment? Yes. Right?
Indianapolis Colts
I’m as shocked as you are. We are three games into the season, and quarterback Daniel Jones is doing things Peyton Manning didn’t do during his legendary Colts’ career.
How long will that continue? It won’t, but I am a believer in what Jones and this Colts offense are doing (as are card collectors, apparently). Jones ranks second in EPA/dropback behind only Lions QB Jared Goff and ahead of the last two NFL MVPs, Lamar Jackson and Allen. Jones ranks first in dropback success rate, and the distance between him and Goff at No. 2 (10%) is the same as the difference between Goff and 18th-ranked Patrick Mahomes. If your jaw isn’t on the floor at this point, well, I guess you’re hard to impress.
Jones will likely come back down to Earth, but for the most part, this Colts offense has all the answers right now. The running game is thriving, too, as the Colts rank third in EPA/rush and rushing success rate. I’m buying into the Colts as an offense, and when you pair that with a weak AFC South, the Colts are the third most likely team from the AFC to win the Super Bowl, edging out the Chargers and even the Chiefs (4.2%).
Los Angeles Chargers
If this were my subjective rankings, I’d probably slot the Chargers ahead of the Colts, mainly because QB Justin Herbert has looked incredible, and coach Jim Harbaugh has a history of finding ways to win football games at all levels. The reason my model is lower on them is 1) the Chiefs (1-2) are still a threat in the division, even if they seem vulnerable right now; and 2) the injuries are starting to mount. The loss of star left tackle Rashawn Slater in the preseason hasn’t been felt yet, but with guard Mekhi Becton going down with a concussion last week, the offensive line could be a little thin. Throw in linebacker Khalil Mack’s IR stint, and there’s ample cause for concern.
Still, I’m a believer in the Chargers long term, especially if they stay healthy. Herbert has looked fantastic, and the emergence of Quentin Johnston alongside Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen has given the Chargers a sneaky good receiving group. Johnston ranks as the 17th-best wide receiver in yards per route run this season among WRs with at least 50 routes run. It took a while, but, Johnston looks to be delivering on his first-round pick pedigree.
San Francisco 49ers
Stop me when you’ve heard this before: Injuries are piling up for the 49ers. Quarterback Brock Purdy is dealing with a turf toe injury; All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa has been lost for the season with a torn ACL; All-Pro tight end George Kittle is on IR with a hamstring injury; while reliable wide receiver Jauan Jennings has been banged up in the early going as well. And who knows what they’ll get out of WR Brandon Aiyuk when he returns from his ACL injury?
That’s a lot to overcome, but considering how easy their schedule is, there is reason for optimism. They play the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, while fellow NFC West contenders, the Rams (2-1) and Arizona Cardinals (2-1), each face a top-10 toughest remaining schedule. The Seattle Seahawks (2-1) are near mid-pack.
My model projects the 49ers as the current division favorites, but with so much injury uncertainty, I’m not sure I’m willing to buy them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You already know the good news: The Bucs are 3-0. The bad news is they easily could be 0-3. Tampa Bay has found a way to win in the final minute of every game so far this season, and the victories haven’t come against the best of the best. Close victories over the Atlanta Falcons (1-2), Houston Texans (0-3), and New York Jets (0-3) don’t inspire a ton of confidence, and the schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks, with the Eagles, Seahawks, 49ers and Lions coming up the next four weeks. I’d bet the Bucs will be around .500 by the end of that stretch.
I’m actually bullish on quarterback Baker Mayfield and think he deserves more credit for what he’s done the past couple of years, but again, the injuries have not been kind to the Bucs. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin are nearing returns, but Tampa just lost Mike Evans to a hamstring injury, while guard Cody Mauch is out for the year, and right tackle Luke Goedeke just landed on IR. Defensive lineman Calijah Kancey is also done for the year, so while the Bucs are a solid team when healthy, I can’t call them a Super Bowl contender.
(Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)
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