Survivor pools saw their first bit of chaos in Week 3 with the Browns upsetting the Packers and the Panthers upsetting the Falcons. For the former, eliminated survivor participants had to feel they were taking the somewhat safe route and avoiding some seemingly more vulnerable favorites, including a Bucs team that just barely pulled out a win against the Jets. For the latter, avoiding the consensus Seahawks pick in order to roll with Atlanta didn’t work out in Michael Penix Jr.’s first road start of the season.
Those survivor players who tend to avoid road favorites were vindicated for their strategy with the Packers and Falcons losses, although it’s worth pointing out the Chiefs — our top pivot for those in 18-gameweek formats or smaller pools who wanted to save the Bills — had no issue handling the Giants in a game that appears to have spelled the end of Russell Wilson’s tenure as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Having survived with the Bills, we will now turn to rooting for a stunning Buffalo upset at some point to eliminate a large portion of survivor entries, perhaps as soon as this week.
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The Bills one of just two contenders likely to be popular in Week 4 depending on format, as the Lions seem like a great option for those who don’t have to worry about the shorter holiday slates. In those 20-gameweek formats, saving the Lions makes a lot of sense with Detroit playing on both the standalone Thanksgiving and Christmas slates, although hosting the Packers in one and traveling to Minnesota for the other don’t look like the most appealing of matchups on paper at this point.
So if we’ve used the Bills and we’re not using the Lions, which team deserves our trust in NFL survivor pools in Week 4? We’ll break down the 18,656-entry Circa Survivor pool and then give out our best plays for both large and small pool participants for Week 4.
Why listen to me? I’m 718-623-37 and up more than 32 units on ATS picks over the last eight years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 464-379-27 (55%) over the last 10 years in the Las Vegas ATS contests. While survivor doesn’t involve picking against the spread, I do believe by applying the strategies I’ve developed to have long-term success on those picks to survivor pools, we’ll be in the best position to outlast the competition this season.
In Week 4, I’ve ranked several options for both small pool and large pool participants, weighing whether it’s worth using what might be the consensus play or digging a little deeper into the options.
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