Detroit’s potential blown lead would exceed previous record of 7.5 games entering final month
The Detroit Tigers have spent most of the 2025 Major League Baseball season seemingly coasting towards an AL Central division title and first-round postseason bye.
Starting around the middle of June, the Tigers have consistently had around a 90 percent chance of winning their division. Per Fangraphs, it reached a 99.9 percent probability by the latter half of August. They’ve been in first place since April 22, dominating their division for nearly the entire season.
As of August 23, for example, the Tigers were 78-53, had the best record in the American League, an 11.5 game lead over the second-place Kansas City Royals, and 12.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians. Entering Tuesday afternoon, the last week of the regular season, however? The Tigers are 85-71, having gone just 7-18 since that date, the worst record in the AL.
And Cleveland, out of nowhere, has gone 20-8 over the same time span, the best record in the AL. Suddenly, that 12.5-game lead less than a month ago is down to just one game. Guess who plays a three-game series from Tuesday to Thursday this week?
The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. Are we about to witness history?
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal reacts after a play against the Cleveland Guardians during the sixth inning at Comerica Park in Detroit on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025. (© Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
Detroit Tigers Collapse Has Historic Potential
Entering Tuesday, that 99.9 percent chance to win the division for Detroit has fallen to just 63.1 percent. Cleveland, which was seemingly buried a month ago, has seen its probability rise to 36.9 percent.
The Tigers, at least, do have Tarik Skubal scheduled to start in Cleveland on Tuesday night, and Jack Flaherty scheduled for Wednesday. Win the series, and it’s a near-certainty that they manage to hang on to the division. Though unless the Tigers sweep, Cleveland will win the season series, and thus the tiebreaker. And for Detroit, a tough weekend matchup against the Boston Red Sox, fighting for their playoff lives, looms to finish out the regular season.
But to put their potential collapse into context, the Tigers had a nine-game division lead over the Royals on September 1, and a 10.5-game lead over the Guardians. Per Elias, the largest division lead any team’s ever blown entering September is 7.5 games. Detroit could easily exceed that.
It would also be among the biggest division leads, at any point, that a team could lose in baseball history, rivaling the memorable 1978 Boston Red Sox collapse to the Yankees.
So how did we get here?
Well, as is so often the case, the Tigers have under-performed their run differential over the last month. Their “expected” winning percentage, based on runs allowed vs runs scored, is .401. Their actual winning percentage is just .280. They’ve blown leads, lost close games, and won in blowouts. Whether it’s the bullpen tiring down the stretch, some offensive over-performers regressing to the mean, or just bad luck, the Tigers have found ways to lose. And suddenly, what felt like a formality is slipping away.
Not only are the Tigers struggling to hold on to the division, but thanks to the Mariners’ surge, they’re now two games back of a first-round bye. And with the Houston Astros just one game behind them, there’s no guarantee they even make the postseason, if this week goes poorly. It’s hard to believe it’s gotten to this point, but likely the best-case scenario for Detroit is now hosting a wild card series against either the Guardians again, or the Astros. The worst case scenario? Making the worst kind of baseball history.
